[opendtv] Re: CMO: ADI: TV Everywhere Consumption Shifting To Connected Devices
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 1 Mar 2016 02:45:06 +0000
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
You are clearly wrong about the Super Bowl, as I pointed out in
the previous response.
Here we go again, as Ronald Reagan famously said. Craig gives his own opinions
as fact, and ignores the article in question. This is what the article says
about the Superbowl:
------------------------------
http://www.cmo.com/articles/2016/2/24/adi-q4-digital-video-benchmark-report.html
"The final audience numbers for Super Bowl came out and it wasn't the highest
year," said Tamara Gaffney, principal at ADI. "And I don't think it's because
fewer people watched the Super Bowl. Declining numbers like that indicate that
digital is starting to siphon off viewers.
"And it's no surprise, really, since CBS streamed the Super Bowl for free to
everybody who wanted to receive it digitally," Gaffney continued. "I think
what's great about that, if you're thinking of it as glass-half-full, is that
that makes a much more digitally addressable audience for television."
------------------------------
This is the article, not my words. I think you have to agree that if IP
streaming siphoned off viewers from traditional QAM broadcast, the STB was
being bypassed, Craig. I think that if TVE growth doubled, and specifically
what they call "broadcast and cable content" more than doubled this past year,
in terms of TVE usage, there again the proprietary STB was being bypassed. You
do not need the STB when streaming over broadband, Craig.
She was WRONG Bert. The numbers prove this. The streaming audience
increased by 100,000; the TV audience decreased by 2.5 million.
My assumption here is that the streaming audience is not counted accurately,
because it was being streamed by so many different ISPs, some unrelated to
cable systems. In any event, if you disagree, please do contact the author.
Next you say live consumption is declining rapidly for most content.
But you have no real data to back this up.
First, we had last year's multiple articles describing this phenomenon. And
then, this article says:
"Broadcast & Cable content had the highest TVE growth YoY, at 111%, according
to ADI's analysis. 'This is the first time we've seen that, and we think it's
because of some of these fall TV premieres and people waiting to watch **when
it's most convenient** for them instead of when it broadcasts on the actual
cable channel,' Tasker said."
Obviously, Craig, that kind of increase in IP streaming on demand, as the
article claims (not me), can only be caused by two effects:
1. Either people are ditching their DVRs in droves, using IP streaming instead
of the DVR, and/or
2. People are ditching by appointment viewing in droves.
Most likely, a combination of the two effects. Which would be, by appointment
viewing is in decline still (i.e. now below the 47% number of last spring), and
usage of DVRs is being replaced by online streaming. Neither of which seems
hard to believe.
Craig, you need to accept the fact that nothing is static. A stat from early
2015 was supposed to show you a TREND. If by appointment viewing went from 100%
years ago to only 47% by spring of 2015, you need to resist the urge to think
that it must remain at 47% for the rest of eternity.
The ADI report says NOTHING about such a migration.
Well, you know, it seems kind of obvious that people aren't watching TV
simultaneously using IP streaming and the old fashioned broadcast. It's very
doubtful that all these new streamers are spending as much time as they ever
were on by appointment viewing with their legacy STB. Not self-evident, Craig?
Slide 9 in the deck provided by ADI tells us that iOS authentications
GREW 21% YoY. What decline was the percentage of iOS authorizations
as a percentage of ALL authentications, which more than doubled YoY.
Which hardly debunks anything we're talking about. If anything, it reinforces
it. Your knee jerked because someone claimed that iOS usage was in decline. But
the important point is that IP streaming is so much on the increase. So iOS
merely takes a smaller share? No nevermind. Streaming is up, is what counts.
Sorry, but it is impossible to draw that conclusion from this report.
We do know that the majority of U.S. Homes use both.
And we also know that overall viewership of TV content has NOT increased by a
huge margin. So brushing the trends aside with some vague "use both" comment is
also wrong. The reality is that people are increasingly bypassing the legacy
STB to watch TV, these days, because they are streaming.
Clearly the handwriting is on the wall with respect to the free
browser version of Hulu.
It reminds me of your prediction, back in 2000 or so, that FOTA TV would be
just for reruns, and that everything high value would be behind monopolistic,
proprietary garden walls.
The streaming market is still only about 25%. Please prove otherwise.
If, by the end of 2015, IP streaming of TV content more than doubled from the
previous year, one wonders how Craig insists that nothing has changed? And
don't forget that your made-up 25% number only applied to broadcast TV plus
cable channels. Not to all the other stuff people are watching instead. Not to
Netflix movies, Amazon, etc, except as related to TV network content on these
OTT sites. Streaming is up significantly, Craig. Get used to it.
Catch-up is just another term for on demand.
Not really. Catch-up is what people who watch by appointment occasionally have
to do, so they can get back to their by appointment schedule. On demand is more
a change in how TV is consumed habitually. When you insist on saying
"catch-up," therefore, it makes it sound like you haven't accepted this fact
yet. People are watching differently, Craig.
Which is EXACTLY what I said in the previous response.
Only because you don't read, Craig. You feel compelled to trumpet TVE is some
sort of end game, so you can advertise the wonders of walled gardens (and you
claim *congloms* need it to transition to IP). I'm merely saying that TVE plays
right in the hands of this effort to create a standard STB. Not that it's the
end game, not that it's wonderful, not that it's THE way that congloms are
making the transition to IP. It just happens to be there, and wouldn't you know
it, makes the standard STB job that much easier. And in fact, I would be mighty
surprised if TVE were to survive as is. It does not make sense, in the Internet
era, to politely stay in one's old traditional neighborhoods exclusively. You
seem unable to get that, Craig.
Even if the MVPD moves to ALL IP transport over their pipe it still
makes no sense to pull the live streams and popular recent shows from
a remote server via the wide area networks.
No one ever mentioned the WAN. Popular content is stored in edge servers,
Craig. We went over this many times, right? I don't know how Charter and TWC
are sending that content to edge servers exactly, but we do know that for
in-system DVR service, the content can be sent by satellite links, out of band.
So the same can be done here.
What does NOT make a lot of sense is to dedicate the very vast majority of
cable bandwidth to broadcast streams that are going unused.
I am glad to see however, that you are getting on board with the
little connected TV boxes you despise!
Just like TVE, they play into this effort of creating the standard STB. Doesn't
mean they're wonderful. I don't know why anyone would want to be in that
straightjacket.
Going on the second month, to reiterate what should be obvious.
Bert
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