[opendtv] Re: CMO: ADI: TV Everywhere Consumption Shifting To Connected Devices
- From: Craig Birkmaier <brewmastercraig@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 29 Feb 2016 10:49:20 -0500
On Feb 28, 2016, at 9:05 PM, Manfredi, Albert E
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
TVE is rarely used instead of the STB for live TV
That's changing. Even for the Superbowl, live, people this year went from the
proprietary STB to streaming. That's the direction of the migration. And too,
"live" consumption is declining rapidly for most content. All of which says
clearly that people are migrating away from rented proprietary STBs.
First, I'll admit that my statement was based mostly on my personal behavior,
and interpretation of the stats in the ADI report.
You are clearly wrong about the Super Bowl, as I pointed out in the previous
response. The streaming audiences was essentially flat, growing from 1.3
million to 1.4 million YoY. Statistically this is in the noise level.
Next you say live consumption is declining rapidly for most content. But you
have no real data to back this up. The data you have provided states that 47%
still watch live and another ~30% are using DVRs or catch-up services to avoid
making appointments. What you have not shown us is how these numbers are
changing over time.
What is clear from the data you have provided is that people are using the DVR
feature of their STBs extensively. You have not provided ANY data about
migration away from STBs.
The ADI report says NOTHING about such a migration. All it tells us is that the
use of TVE services is growing rapidly, which I have been saying for quite some
time. And the report tells us that there is a significant increase in the use
of connected devices to view TVE sites on the big screen.
Keep in mind that the vast majority of MVPD subscribers ALSO subscribe to one
or more OTT services like Netflix. Almost all of these people need a connected
TV device to view OTT content on the big screen. The ADI report tells us that
Apple TV is the most popular connected TV device and that Roku is gaining
overall share of TVE authentications.
The consumers most likely to be viewing live TV via a connected TV device would
1. Subscribers to Sling TV, CBS All Access, and the new IP based services from
Charter and TWC. Unfortunately we have no data on the number of people using
2. People who are "borrowing" authentication credentials - this may be a large
number, but again we have no data. We do know that this is very popular among
The ADI report ALSO tells us that only 17.4% of pay TV subscribers are using
TVE services. It does not break this down as to what kinds of services they are
paying for - e.g. If you subscribe to Netflix and use stolen authentication
credentials are you a Pay TV subscriber? Does this percentage represent MVPD
subscribers who are also using TVE services?
Bottom line, you and I do not have a clue as to whether people are migrating
away from leased STBs, and this report does not provide any data from which to
draw this conclusion. But it does support your contention that connected TV
devices CAN be used as an alternative to leased STBs in some cases, for some
"TVE consumption via Roku, specifically, increased 14% quarter over quarter
(QoQ). This is likely due to the major broadcast networks' adding channels in
mid-November. Additionally, iOS authentications continued to decrease, down
almost 12% QoQ."
I already debunked this conclusion from the report.
Slide 9 in the deck provided by ADI tells us that iOS authentications GREW 21%
YoY. What decline was the percentage of iOS authorizations as a percentage of
ALL authentications, which more than doubled YoY. It is also important to note
that ADI includes Apple TV authentications under connected devices, not iOS,
which they measure as iPads and iPhones.
Apple does not break out Apple TV sales, but the company said they sold a
record number of 4th generation devices, which now run TVOS, a variant of iOS
with it's own App Store. There were more than 25 million Apple TV devices in
use this time last year. It may take a bit of time to understand the impact of
the 4th gen Apple TVE, which actually competes more directly with X-Box and
Play Station than Roku. Analyst expect Apple to sell 24 million Apple TVs this
But Roku and Amazon Fire TV devices are selling very well. Clearly there is a
huge appetite for devices that connect the big screen to OTT services. To the
extent that companies like Charter and TWC make their MVPD content available to
these devices, we may well see a dramatic decline in leased MVPD STBs.
This says that people use IP streaming to TV sets increasingly, rather than
rented STBs. Because they prefer streaming. Pretty obvious.
Sorry, but it is impossible to draw that conclusion from this report. We do
know that the majority of U.S. Homes use both.
"Broadcast & Cable content had the highest TVE growth YoY, at 111%, according
to ADI's analysis. 'This is the first time we've seen that, and we think it's
because of some of these fall TV premieres and people waiting to watch when
it's most convenient for them instead of when it broadcasts on the actual
cable channel,' Tasker said."
Yup. There was a flood of new TVE Apps over the last two quarters of 2015.
Clearly this is enabling alternatives to live appointment TV and DVR time
shifting, as I noted in the previous response. This comes as no surprise, as I
have been saying for a long time that "on-demand" will become the way most
people consume new pre-produced episodic TV and library content. The data tells
us that there will still be a significant live audience for these shows, but
the convenience factor of on demand has had a very significant impact over the
past few years. And it is very important to understand the shift in attitude
among the broadcast networks, which have now gotten on board with catch-up OTT
Speaking of which, I decided to install the Hulu App on my iPad this morning. I
first went to the Hulu.com website, but it will not stream to iOS devices. It
redirects you to the App Store. When you download and open the Hulu App you
learn that you can get a 30 day free trial, but you must choose between the
$7.99 "limited commercial" version or the $13.99 "commercial free" version.
I uninstalled the app. Clearly the handwriting is on the wall with respect to
the free browser version of Hulu. It is being used to sell subscriptions; I
expect the browser version to require a subscription soon.
So even though we found out last year that 53% of TV viewing was being done
on demand, it looks like this year, that number has increased significantly.
Sorry Bert but that number is BOGUS. The report you cited gets to 53% by
including DVR based time shifting. The streaming market is still only about
25%. Please prove otherwise.
And more importantly, use of IP streaming is used increasingly. (I have to
believe that use of PVRs has somewhat declined, but those stats are not
Correct. As I stated in the previous response I dropped DVR service and have
been using TVE as an alternative. I agree that this is a trend.
The reason MVPD subscribers are using TVE apps on the same screen served
by a MVPD STB is to catch-up with current programming
No, those are your words. This article, and the one from last year too, show
pretty convincingly that people prefer to view on demand. It's not "catch up"
at all, and hasn't been for a good bit of time. It's not "catch up" when all
your prime time viewing is done on demand, Craig.
Catch-up is just another term for on demand. And yes, a growing percentage of
the audience is moving to on demand as I stated above. Nothing you have
provided in terms of real verifiable data tells us that all prime time viewing
is moving to on demand. The numbers simply do not support this.
Once again, TVE can be used to leverage the use of IP streaming, very easily
indeed. This doesn't change what it is. This doesn't change that it's an
attempt to maintain those local neighborhood monopoly garden walls in place,
with a technology that no longer requires local monopoly garden walls. I
haven't changed anything that I've said in the past, on this matter. Merely
pointing out that the existence of TVE facilitates the abolishment of those
rental boxes you cherish. And yes, soon enough, the MVPDs will start to
wonder why be so polite as to maintain the existing neighborhood restrictions.
Which is EXACTLY what I said in the previous response. Why waste our time
And what make you think I cherish my leased STB that died yesterday? We had to
watch analog cable yesterday; our TVs can access the clear QAM digital feeds
from the local broadcast stations, but I rarely, if ever, watch them except for
live sports. I'm tempted to return the box and live with analog cable until an
OTT alternative becomes available. I plan to see how much I'll save when I take
the box back today.
I think the MVPDs are willing to risk losing the revenues from STB rentals if
they can keep subscribers inside the pay walls (bot QAM and IP).
As I've been trying to get across to you for months, this is
how the congloms are making their transition to the Internet
Which misses the point.
No Bert, it IS the point!
Your claim is that the congloms use TVE to transition to IP, even though
these same congloms have been using the Internet for *10 years now*, without
any MVPD affiliation, or neighborhood restrictions.
All true, at least with respect to the broadcast networks, which now represent
less than 1/3 of what people watch.
But they are not making the content behind the MVPD pay walls available for
free. At best you can access some of this content via free website long after
the shows aired. Many of these sites, like AMC, TBS and Discovery require MVPD
authentication or paid Apps to access recent shows.
The congloms are also going it alone, on the Internet, in some cases. So
primarily, TVE is for the legacy MVPD model to be dragged on into the
Internet era. The benefits of that are as much to MVPDs as they are to
congloms. Maybe more so.
Correct. Thanks for confirming what I keep saying. They are protecting the cash
cow, even as the pipe changes.
It makes no sense to access the live streams from a server
operated by the network, when those streams already exist inside
the (physical) walls of the MVPDs.
Of course it does. We've been over this too many times too! Hint: it has to
do with making effective use of the infrastructure, to give people the
broadband capacity they want, without tying up the very vast majority of
cable spectrum on broadcast streams no one is watching.
Missed it! I'm actually on your side on this.
Even if the MVPD moves to ALL IP transport over their pipe it still makes no
sense to pull the live streams and popular recent shows from a remote server
via the wide area networks. The streams are already available at the head end,
so there is no need to use the Internet to access them. The new Charter and TWC
apps are accessing in-band IP streams via the cable modem. It just makes sense
to deliver the content being accessed the most from the head end and to
collocate TVE edge servers.
You are correct that the article said that streaming was siphoning
off the live TV audience.
It was also live over the Internet, Craig.
As it was in 2014.
The author's point was that use of broadcast had declined for the Superbowl,
compared to last year, but she did not think that actual viewership of the
Superbowl had declined. This is the kind of stuff that makes content owners
rethink their strategies.
She was WRONG Bert. The numbers prove this. The streaming audience increased by
100,000; the TV audience decreased by 2.5 million.
I posted those numbers right after the Super Bowl and again in my last
response. The author makes her living promoting Internet TV. It is clear from
the slide deck I posted how easy it is to create misleading stats - like iOS
usage declining on one slide, but increasing on another.
You love to find things that support you positions, but take little care to
determine if there is bias in these articles. In this case you swallowed the
bait, hook, line and sinker.
In summary, extremely recent stats show that the trend to online streaming,
of TV content *to TV sets*, is on the rise, that the trend to on demand
viewing is sharply rising, that even something like the Superbowl is
increasingly being viewed online rather than the old-fashioned way, and that
this continuing shift to Internet usage is NOT JUST being caused by use of
hand held devices to watch TV. Quite the contrary. It's being caused by
streaming *to TV sets.*
You are nearly correct. You are simply wrong about the Super Bowl.
I am glad to see however, that you are getting on board with the little
connected TV boxes you despise!
All of this suggests that the FCC STB plan can comfortably be shelved,
because technology has taken care of that problem already. It seems clear WHY
owners of content are interested in allowing their stuff to be streamed over
IP. (Let's see if we can drag this simple point on for another month or
Why are you wasting our time Bert?
I already have agreed about this. See above.
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