[opendtv] Re: CEA Survey: 10% Of Pay-TV Households Plan To Cut Cord In 2011
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 2 Jun 2011 08:14:29 -0400
At 5:53 PM -0500 6/1/11, Manfredi, Albert E wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
http://www.multichannel.com/article/469022-CEA_Survey_10_Of_Pay_TV_Households_Plan_To_Cut_Cord_In_2011.php
In the article, this quote:
"National Association of Broadcasters spokesman Dennis Wharton said,
'CEA has zero credibility when it comes to calculating over-the-air
TV viewership. Knowledge Networks has stated that over-the-air
exclusive homes are more than 14% and rising. We trust an unbiased
research firm over a survey paid for by CEA.'"
I totally agree on the "no credibility" part. It's really a mystery
to me why the CEA has been so against OTA TV, even to the point of
being so disingenuous about the cost of built-in receivers, years
ago. No credibility.
http://www.cesweb.org/shared_files/ECD-TOC/CEACordCuttingAnalysis.pdf
Do you honestly believe that the NAB has any more credibility than the CEA?
These are powerful lobbies that spend a huge amount of time and money
producing misleading research to feather their causes.
Not that I trust the CEA more than the NAB, but I see NO evidence
that OTA viewers are increasing. The only group that seems to be
cutting the cord today are the folks who cannot find jobs in this
economy, but are still trying to make it on their own rather than get
on the government handout bandwagon. I would agree that there is a
significant risk that the economy may get worse, forcing many people
to cut back on things like entertainment.
First of all, what the report actually shows is that OTA reception
in at least one set is still around 14 percent or so, as of 2010. It
does show a slow decline from 2009 to 2010, nothing dramatic, and
less of a decline than there was from 2008 to 2009. If cord cutting
does continue, it wouldn't be a bit surprising to see that slow
decline turn around, I don't think.
Oh, and by the way, how come no one trumpeted the gains in OTA that
the report shows, from 2006 to 2008? (How surprising.)
Illegal immigrants. Part of the decline after 2008 is the result of
millions of illegals leaving the U.S. because they cannot find work
either.
The 9 percent figure is households that ONLY depend on OTA for TV.
That means that households which use Internet distribution as well
are not counted in that dramatic-sounding 9 percent figure the CEA
threw out there. Problem is, the congloms prefer OTA to Internet, so
OTA is still an important component. (Did they count OTA PVR use in
there with OTA use?)
The real story in Figure 2 is that cable is down quite steeply,
considerably more steeply than OTA, DBS is up slightly, and the only
steep rise at all is telco. Easy to understand, given they just
started service. They are still down to about 10 percent of
households, though. And the curve is a little less steep in the 2009
to 2010 period than it was during the first year.
The other telling chart, to put a lie to all the hype, is that 93
percent of video content is still consumed on the TV set, and only
13 percent on smartphones. And another overly-hyped video source,
files purchased online, account for only 12 percent.
I would expect the big screen TV to be the preferred venue for watching TV.
Smartphones are not where people are going to watch program length TV
shows unless they are sitting in the waiting room of the doctors
office (which may already have a TV.
BUT, table computers are an entirely different story, and have only
been available in meaningful quantities for the past year. I expect
these devices to become VERY POPULAR second screens for
entertainment. I can say this with some certainty, as just about
everyone I know that has an iPAD uses it to watch movies and TV
shows. And the MVPDs are falling all over themselves to get the
content in their walled gardens onto these screens.
We should see reports like this more often, because they do debunk
the hype we are fed as "facts."
Polls and surveys are NOT FACTS. Just because the NAB finds a survey
that agrees with their Point of View does not make it any more
credible than the paid for by the CEA survey. People with agendas
paid for both surveys.
Regards
Craig
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