[opendtv] Re: Bob likes COFDM

  • From: Eory Frank-p22212 <Frank.Eory@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: "'opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx'" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2005 13:58:43 -0700

Dermot wrote:
>Frank,
>
>However most people in the US are not currently affected as 85% are on
>cable/satellite, NTSC continues, and when the baloon goes up to reveal
>indoor OTA DTV doesn't work there will be such an outcry that, well folks,
>NTSC will continue.

I disagree. There will be no outcry because very few people will bother to try, 
and thus not notice how unreliable indoor ATSC reception is. By the time NTSC 
is shut off, the 85% cable+sat figure will have grown to nearly 95%. Of the 
remaining single-digit percentage, many will be people who simply have little 
interest in TV, whether digital or analog. Those others who fall in the 
economic hardship category will be taken care of by Uncle Sam at a modest cost 
-- very modest, relative to the spectrum auction proceeds. 

>The only people to lose their shirts will be CE and silicon vendors prepared
>to spend millions of dollars on bleeding edge 8VSB technology: and how many 
>CEOs,
>CFOs and investors will sanction that spend if there are no perceived markets?
>None: which is what we are seeing right now. The vendor community is walking 
>away..

I think the vendor community walked away several years ago. But I still contend 
that there is a market for "letter of the law" junk 8-VSB receivers. The CE 
mfrs must put SOMETHING in those DTV sets to satisfy the mandate. Since almost 
nobody will use those receivers, the operative phrase is "the cheaper, the 
better." Suppose, for example, there was a performance issue with closed 
caption decoders, such that a robust decoder added a noticeable dollar figure 
to the price of a TV set. How many consumers would voluntarily spend more for a 
closed caption decoder that "really works well?" How many would opt for the 
"junk" quality decoder that was only so-so, but added $0 to the TV and was only 
included to satisfy some federal law?

>Now a 'completely new and unproven digital modulation technology': wasn't
>that what they said about COFDM in the period 1993-1998?. They are not
>laughing now..

You're absolutely right. Now I'll remove my tongue from my cheek regarding the 
idea that "it may take a few more generations to get it right." I thought you'd 
pick up on my sarcasm there. 

>What a tragic mess US DTV has become!

On the contrary, it's moving along quite nicely. The quantity of HDTV 
programming continues to grow, as do the number of HD displays in consumers' 
homes. Satellite is 100% digital, with more HD capacity on the horizon. Cable 
has fully embraced HDTV and is moving rapidly to 100% digital simulcast of 
analog channels, in preparation for the eventual shut-off of its NTSC tier. 
IPTV from the telcos is coming soon, and even wireless DTV on hand-held devices.

American consumers will soon have a plethora of wired & wireless DTV delivery 
choices -- all using distribution networks that work. In that present and 
future digital entertainment world, 8VSB is but a minor footnote of passing 
historical interest. And ATSC will be most remembered for giving us a few 
"standards" that will withstand the test of time -- like 16:9, 1080i and 720p, 
DD 5.1 -- and for at least a few more years, MPEG2.

-- Frank

-------------Forwarded Message-----------------


>>Tom Barry wrote:

>>>How many generations should LG/Zenith be allowed before we are
>>>allowed to start making fun of them?

>>Give them a break -- it takes hundreds of man-years and millions of R&D
>>dollars to invent & productize a completely new and unproven digital
>>modulation system, and then optimize it for a particular application like OTA
>>DTV. This is still pretty bleeding-edge technology, and it may take a few
>>more generations to get it right.

>>In any case, I don't believe that "making fun of them" is the appropriate
>>response. Crying, screaming and hair-pulling, perhaps -- but there's nothing
>>particularly funny about this situation.

>>-- Frank

 
 
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