[opendtv] Re: Barriers eroding to LCD TV adoption

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 8 Jul 2004 10:13:39 -0400

Eory Frank wrote:

> Yes, Motorola in its FCC Comments on the matter weighed in at
> $50 by the end of 2006 -- subject to the caveat of large
> volume. From my numbers above, you can infer an assumption
> that what we had for $100 in 2000 should cost less than $20
> (to the TV mfr) by the end of 2006, to get to a retail price
> adder of only $50.
> I believe it is technically possible for the silicon to get
> that cheap that quickly (excluding royalties), but I am not
> optimistic that it will happen -- because I am not optimistic
> that those volumes will happen. And as Craig likes to point
> out, the royalty issue is still a big can of worms.

I don't think royalties have much of anything to do with it,
actually. I tend to agree about volume of sales not happening
by 1/1/2007, but that's got a lot more to do with the delay
in NTSC shutoff beyond 12/31/06 (IMO) than anything else.
This delay out to 2009, or whatever the latest thinking is,
will simply cause people such as moi to wait longer. What's
the rush? Who am I trying to impress?

> For many people -- myself included -- it doesn't really
> matter whether the DTV tuner premium is $50, $100, $300 or
> whatever. It's something I don't want and will never use,

It's not just the monitor and it's not just ATSC tuning.
We're talking about all DTV appliances here. What type of
interface should DTV appliances get? That's the bigger
issue. The whole idea has always been that the ATSC tuner
would be combined with other digital tuning capabilities.
Including the eventual two-way digital cable compatibility.
And this applies to all boxes in the system.

Even if the display itself can be plugged into a separate
box, which ultimately makes the system more expensive but
not much more clumsy, I don't know anyone who would prefer
to plug their PVRs/DVDRs/VCRs into that same box as the TV.
There's more at stake here than just the display interface.
I also don't know too many people who like to lug around a
separate TV and STB when the TV is portable. So clearly,
something better is needed than depending on STBs.

So coming up with a sensible system design is imperative,
unless, of course, we all want to become slaves of each
individual umbillical service provider and their unique
solutions. Everyone will benefit when these appliances are
provided with interfaces that all distribution media use.
Like it was with NTSC.

> P.S. -- Some of you will recall that back in late 1999 or
> early 2000 I reported flawless DTV reception at my house with
> an old Panasonic TU-DST50 (Sinclair's "favorite") and a
> set-top antenna.

Well, that's great, Frank. Unfortunately, the chorus of
negative experiences was far louder and far more prevalent.
I agree with your point about content, of course, but that's
a whole separate discussion. The broadcasters have to address
that aspect, if they care to stay in business.

I don't subscribe to the notion that the right answer is to
force everyone to become dependent on proprietary solutions
deployed by each subscription service.

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