[opendtv] Re: Barriers eroding to LCD TV adoption

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Wed, 7 Jul 2004 18:16:32 -0400

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> You would be incorrect. LCD panels are more expensive to manufacture
> because the manufacturing technology is far more complex and capital
> intensive. Making big glass light bulbs is relatively low tech; there
> are issues related to the size and weight of these bulbs, but these
> are not big technical barriers. The reason that bigger direct view TV
> keep coming down in price is that it is easy to make them; that's why
> CRT manufacturing is being handed over to emerging nations like China.

But this doesn't explain anything about *trends*. The same can be said
about any new technology. It's *always* more complicated than what
came before, which is why it's the new technology. If it were less
complicated, it would have come sooner, right? And the fact that the
old stuff was easier to make does not mean that it won't become
obsolete. Record players were far simpler to make than CD players,
and yet ...

From Mark Schubin's memo again,

"- In Japan, the value of flat-panel TV shipments (LCD and plasma)
exceeded the value of CRT TV shipments in 2003, according to the Japan
Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association.  In
units, however, there were 1.77 million flat-panel TVs and 7.16 million

And the important quote from that link is:

"Domestic shipments of LCD TVs were up 140% on the year at 213.7
billion yen, while plasma TVs rose 2.2% to 127.6 billion yen.
Combined, they jumped 60% to 341.3 billion yen.

"In contrast, the value of CRT TV shipments fell 25.4% to 307.9
billion yen.

"But on a volume basis, flat-panel sets totaled just 1.77 million
units, while CRT TVs came to 7.16 million units."

So again, it's the *trend* that matters here, not a snapshot in
time taken today. The number of LCD shipments grew almost two
and a half times. Do you want to place a bet on whether or not
the *number* of CRTs shipped also grew by 2 1/2 times or more?

The article doesn't specify that, but you can be fairly certain
what the answer is!

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