[opendtv] Re: Bank Projects Broadcast Growth in 2010
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Sun, 1 Nov 2009 11:45:14 -0500
At 6:47 PM -0400 10/31/09, Albert Manfredi wrote:
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
Aside from the fact that this is just one analyst's
opinion, one must question the reality that a
business in decline could grow at these rates.
Let's wonder about the truth of that "business in decline." What has
been in decline is mostly advertizing dollars, and we already knew,
for years, that the Nielsen ratings were short-changing viewership
that watches shows time shifted.
We also have known for years that Nielsen significantly overstates
actual viewership.
You are absolutely correct that TV advertising dollars are in
decline. The remarkable thing was that the broadcasters were able to
charge even more for less viewers over the past decade.
That's over.
Now advertisers are moving their dollars where they work best. The
old time and channel TV model does not work well at all, and there is
little chance that it can be updated to compete with new models that
link advertisers with real prospects.
This recent article:
tells a very different story. Ratings are up mostly, by several
percentage points, except ABC. Some networks are down on average,
but up for the much-coveted young adults.
Here's the summary:
CBS is up 6% on average, for grownups and for young adults.
ABC is down 4% on average, down 7 percent for young adults. Ouch.
Fox is up 5%, but it's up 12% for young adults.
(Parenthetically, I find myself recording shows mostly from CBS and
Fox, matter of fact.)
NBC is up 3% on average, but down 5% for young adults.
CW is down 3% on average, but up 3% among young adults.
So, not bad at all, for an industry that everyone seems to love to
be pessimistic about. The good shows are good, simple as that.
A rather self serving article based once again on Nielsen numbers.
Yes, DVRs are feeding a slight increase in ratings, but MUCH of their
use can be attributed to avoiding commercials - did you read some of
the comments to the article?
And the increase is based on early samples from the first few weeks
of the season. Let's see what the real numbers look like after the
November sweeps.
Regards
Craig
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