Craig Birkmaier wrote:
If we were to take the approach that ATSC was to replace the primary service for 75% of U.S. homes, as opposed to 15%, then it would be completely logical to think that this mess would already be completely over. A much higher percentage of consumers would have had reason to switch from analog to digital, and the content providers would have had (in theory) less reason to protect the subscription services from competition.
Agreed mostly. Not so much that the transition would necessarily have been over, though, since this has not happened "naturally" in any country. Only happened in parts of Germany, as a result of the govt making OTA users go cold turkey.
As a result the problems with ATSC would have been identified, but it is unlikely that these problems would have been whitewashed.
Definitely agree here. There would have been an imperative either to fix 8-VSB, as has been happening slowly, or to change to another physical layer, tout de suite. I thought this was starting to happen with the Frank Eory work, but the innovations proved very slow to materialize.
And you are really dreaming Bert, if you think that even the remain 15% of homes that now depend on NTSC service will all convert to ATSC.
More than that. Some of the 15 percent might switch over to subscription, but some subscribers would switch over to DTT. As in Germany.
The only way that the terrestrial service will start growing market share again, is if they offer competitive reasons to come back. They will need to offer competitive programming and a very high likelihood that service can be established with minimum effort. And most important they will need to develop new services that people want, but cannot get from competitors, like portability and mobility.
The only country we can compare our situation to is Germany (DTT switchover in times of low OTA TV usage). Is that what Germany had to do to keep FOTA TV afloat? The first part, easy reception, sort of. The rest, no. The "easy reception" aspect only really applied to the 12-14 miles from the middle of the SFN pattern. I think ATSC has, or should have, no problem achieving that.
BTW, I'm not saying that the new gimmicks you mention are not to be offered. I'm only saying that they aren't mandatory for DTT survival.
TVs are not sold set to cable by default over here now.
That's funny. All the ones I have bought in a couple of decades are. And I should know, since I have to go into the menu and change the setting. Must be a fluke.
As long as we are speculating, I would suggest that a sizable portion of the remaining OTA audience are actually homes that don't do TV.
That's fine too. It would be nice to see stats on this number. Or she might try some rabbit ears.
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