[opendtv] Auction 73/76 Update
- From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 6 Feb 2008 14:06:21 -0500
Seems I am going to be way off on this Auction. First I thought it would go
to $60 Billion or more and then $30 Billion because of the economy but it
looks like $23 Billion will be maximum. It is at $19 Billion now with no
winning bid on the 10MHz D block. If the D block is offered by itself with
no restriction and maybe an option to buy it by region or nationally in the
follow-up Auction 76 it may get $3 Billion. Even though there may be 100
rounds to go in Auction 73 they will be lucky to get another Billion $ in
total. That would make for $20 Billion in Auction 73 and $3 Billion in
Auction 76 for a total of $23 Billion.
Interesting things could still happen. Speculators could be chasing Qualcomm
for the E block. So far the E block, one 6 MHz license, has been trailing
bids on other blocks. In the latest rounds there has been a lot of bidding
on the E block. Speculators could just keep jumping their bids around from
license to license making Qualcomm pay ever more until Qualcomm figures it
out and lets them have some of the licenses. If Qualcomm tries to get them
all it will have to pay a lot. Better to let the speculators have some of
them at lower prices and try to deal with them after the auction then to
chase them around and pay a lot more for ALL the licenses they are trying to
buy. But since Qualcomm doesn't know who they are bidding against they also
don't know how many they are bidding against which makes it tricky. If there
are a lot of smaller bidders they all, Qualcomm included, could pay a lot
more for the E block.
Just my speculation though since no one knows who is bidding on what. That
would have been our strategy in Auction 49 if we had the money, chase
Qualcomm around the five regions they did win until they either outbid us at
high prices or let us have one at a lower price.
Talking to brokers who are talking to bidders it seems the economy has cost
the FCC $10 Billion or more in these auctions due to bidders who are not
even in the auction and lower total bids by those who are.
Bob Miller
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