[opendtv] Re: Auction 73/76
- From: "John Willkie" <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 10 Feb 2008 12:32:14 -0800
I answered your question ? you apparently were confused. You confuse net
present value (and you lack money to play, anyway) with potential future
value. You are badly confused.
Here?s the item I missed: TV stations have ?business going forward.? Not
you.
John Willkie
_____
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de Bob Miller
Enviado el: Sunday, February 10, 2008 12:22 PM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Auction 73/76
I would much rather have just the rf, two channels for $405K BTW, than what
that station that sold for $25 Million has with all their other 8 "assets".
Their assets also include having to use MPEG2 and 8-VSB. They include all
the restrictions "broadcasters" have to abide by via FCC regulations. They
include waiting for an inefficient mobile version of 8-VSB. They include a
mindset that is headed for extinction.
I would rather have just the clean white sheet with fewer restrictions and
two channels for $405K any day.
Bob Miller
On Feb 10, 2008 2:52 PM, John Willkie <johnwillkie@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
What planet are you on? It's time to return to earth.
A TV station in Tyler texas has these assets:
1. proven revenue generator
2. physical assets
3. leases
4. contracts
5. goodwill in the community
6. a proven, widely-used free system for transmisión using widely available
equipment
7. employees
8. a swath of spectrum
At best, these bidders might have 8 everything else is just a cost, not an
asset.
And, the only company that has ACTUALLY done something with their spectrum
is Qualcomm. Everything else is arbitrage.
Why did the fools pay so much for these small markets? $405K for a single
channel ? rf only ? is way too high to make it a going business.
John Willkie
_____
De: opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:opendtv-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] En
nombre de Bob Miller
Enviado el: Sunday, February 10, 2008 11:21 AM
Para: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Asunto: [opendtv] Re: Auction 73/76
The conventional wisdom is that using this spectrum for broadcasting is the
LOWEST value use. The problem is that they are only thinking of using it for
"mobile broadcasting" which is defined as broadcasting to cell phones as
Qualcomm is doing. The conventional wisdom crowd then looks at anemic use
figures of this "mobile broadcasting" which is in its early stages and
decides that is the only model, that few will be willing to pay a monthly
fee to watch TV on their cell phone.
They could be wrong but I have agreed with that assessment since day one. I
believe that if you broadcast specifically to cell phones that that service
will become just another service in a cell phone bundle that you have to
provide to be competitive and that it will not be a profit center.
But if you use this spectrum for broadcasting TV like I have proposed, not
to cell phones exclusively, but target everyone on all devices everywhere
with a free service or a free service and a subscription service you will
have a winner.
And you then can compare cost of spectrum in Auction 73 with what a current
broadcast TV station goes for.
Tyler Texas had a sale of a TV station recently for $25 million. They have a
coverage of 100,000 in Tyler which has a population of 80,000. I know they
make steel pipe their but have little else to go on for demographics.
Compare to TWO TV stations, channels 54 and 59 in a similar coverage area
that you could buy in the current Auction 73 or the late Auctions 44 and 49.
ALL of which I contend are going for or went for SUPER CHEAP prices.
For example Channels 54 and 59 in Auctions 44 and 49 and Channels 53 and 58
in Auction 73 were won for or are being bid at in these markets with similar
pops to Tyler Texas...
Marion Arkansas, 97,000 pops went for or are going for in Auction 44 $.00,
Auction 49 $35,400 Auction 73 currently bid at $369,000
Sherman-Denison Texas, 111,000 pops Auction 44 $.00, Auction 49, $78,000,
sold privately by Aloha to AT&T in Oct 2007 for ???$$$$, Auction 73
currently bid at $214,000
Midland Texas, 116,008 pops Auction 44 $.00, Auction 49, $55,500, Auction 73
currently bid at $405,000
So if one station in Tyler with a population of 80,000 is worth $25 million
why is Midland with two stations going for $405,000?
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