[opendtv] Re: Another point of view on walled gardens
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 4 Feb 2010 10:25:15 -0600
Begin excerpt.
"It's a tangled Web they're weaving. Simply put, the Internet we once knew is
shattering into pieces. It's the end of a golden age, according to Forrester
Research analyst Josh Bernoff, who recently coined the term 'splinternet' to
describe this phenomenon.
[ ... ]
"In those early days of the Web, users viewed content using those specific
systems; that is, AOL users saw only AOL content. Then the World Wide Web
became an open platform. Now, mobile devices are splitting up the Web again.
"'You can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again,' Bernoff said. 'The
stability that helped shape the Web is gone, and it's not coming back.'"
End excerpt.
Wow, what a strange view of reality.
The WWW was NEVER as it was perceived by AOL and Compuserve customers. They
were the anomaly, trying to wall in what was never meant to be. Which is
probably why they didn't last. And devices which attempt to introduce the same
artificial walls may not fare any better.
Bert
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http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/03/technology/Web_splintering/index.htm?section=money_technology&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_technology+%28Technology%29
End of the Web as we know it, thanks to iPad and others
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
February 3, 2010: 1:34 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- For many years, the Internet was relatively simple:
Everyone surfed the same Web.
Fast forward to 2010 and the idea of a one-size-fits-all Web is a quaint
memory, thanks to the rise of the iPhone, Kindle, BlackBerry, Droid and of
course, the much-hyped iPad.
As mobile Internet gadgets multiply, so does device-specific content. For
example, popular mobile Twitter app Tweetie is available only on the iPhone,
while an official GMail application is only on the Droid. And if you buy an
e-book for the Amazon (AMZN, Fortune 500) Kindle, you can't necessarily view it
on other e-readers.
At the same time, more and more online content is password-protected, like most
Facebook profiles and some newspaper articles.
It's a tangled Web they're weaving. Simply put, the Internet we once knew is
shattering into pieces. It's the end of a golden age, according to Forrester
Research analyst Josh Bernoff, who recently coined the term "splinternet" to
describe this phenomenon.
"It reminds me of the early Internet provider battles with AOL and CompuServe,"
said Don More, a partner at Updata, an advisory investment bank for information
technology mergers. "There are going to be winners and losers."
In those early days of the Web, users viewed content using those specific
systems; that is, AOL users saw only AOL content. Then the World Wide Web
became an open platform. Now, mobile devices are splitting up the Web again.
"You can't put Humpty Dumpty back together again," Bernoff said. "The stability
that helped shape the Web is gone, and it's not coming back."
Blind spots
When mobile users choose to buy an iPhone, Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500) Droid,
BlackBerry or some other device, they are effectively opting into and out of
certain content, since not every application is available on every gadget.
This is putting content into "gated communities," said Updata's Don More. The
manufacturers of these devices can -- and do -- pick and choose which apps
their devices will work with, rejecting those that may compete with their own
products or that they don't consider up to snuff.
For example, Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) rejected a Google Voice app for the
iPhone, which would have let users send free text messages and make
international calls at a low cost.
And limitations extend further than just the apps. Case in point: The new iPad
does not run Adobe's (ADBE) Flash, which will prevent users from viewing a lot
of Web sites.
"While [this trend] is not necessarily bad for consumers, they should realize
that they are now making a choice," said Forrester's Bernoff. "Whatever they
choose, some content will not be available to them."
Tough choices
The companies that make the apps are now faced with difficult decisions. Which
devices will they choose to support? How much money and time will it take to
get their content to run on these gadgets?
Whatever developers decide, they'll miss some portion of the consumer
population that they were once able to reach on the Web as a whole.
"When we started this business, we never dreamed of what we'd have to deal
with," said Sam Yagan, co-founder of dating site OKCupid.com. "To rewrite a
program for a different phone is time-consuming, expensive and mind-numbing."
OkCupid employs 14 people, and its iPhone app took six months of man-hours to
develop, Yagan said. The company is considering creating an app for Android,
which would take about two months.
"It's a huge resource allocation problem, especially for smaller companies,"
Yagan said. "We just don't have the resources to throw five people on every
device that comes out."
Chris Fagan, co-founder of comparison shopping app maker Froogloid, said his
company chose to focus on Android because it works with several phones
including the Droid, Eris and G1.
"Consumers are losing some of that choice, and businesses are being hurt by the
extra cost," Fagan said. But the burgeoning popularity of apps means that
companies will continue building them despite the cost, he said.
What's next?
As a more splintered Internet becomes the norm, Bernoff of Forrester thinks
there will be a backlash: a push to make content on mobile devices more
uniform.
The answer might be the newest Web platform coming down the pike, HTML 5, which
Bernoff said could become a standard for mobile devices in the next few years.
For example, HTML 5 can showcase Web site animation without using Flash.
But the arrival of any new technology also sets off a fight to control it. Don
More of Updata said he expects to see "a massive battle among companies -- not
just Apple and Google, but also Comcast (CCS), Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and
anyone else who touches content. There's the apps, the ads, the devices ...
everyone is trying to control this emerging technology."
Of course, no one can predict the future of the Web. But Bernoff knows one
thing for sure.
"We don't know what the hot new device will be in 2011," he said. "But this is
certain: It's not going to run the Internet the same way we once knew."
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