[opendtv] Analyst: NBC Network Is Worth 'Negative $600 Million'

  • From: "Mark A. Aitken" <maitken@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: OpenDTV <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 28 Sep 2010 13:50:25 -0400

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/television/news/e3id8b4313a40c3bc11ca6c41e08ec56453

MAA - So, let's swing this boat around (big enough rudder and/or ocean and you can turn even the biggest vessel...if you have the staying power and want and promise of a desired result)....

Wow! I guess one (of many) question(s) I would have for Comcast is "would you be willing to give the NBC network away, and to whom?" Or perhaps a better question would be "Why should anyone believe that you will keep the Network alive?"

Actually, I posted this after seeing Craig's statement ".... As long as the broadcast networks are willing to lose money on sports...." in the "Shifting Online, Netflix Faces New Competition" thread. It seems to me that it is most important to look at the whole picture, not the fragments. This may change when the content side gets somewhat more removed from the common ownership. CBS/Viacom went through some tough times when the de-merge was done years ago, but seemed to have gotten through. As long as the 'whole' economic equation works for any ONE organization, losing could/can lead to winning (I said could/can not would/will...)...


 
The Hollywood Reporter
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Analyst: NBC Network Is Worth 'Negative $600 Million'

USA’s estimated value: $11.7 billion.

By Georg Szalai

Sept 27, 2010, 11:36 AM ET

NEW YORK -- USA Network is the most valuable part of NBC Universal at $11.7 billion, but the NBC network is worth a negative $600 million, according to Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan. He also puts the value of the Universal studio arm at about $4 billion.

Harrigan listed the valuation estimates in a research note on Monday following Friday's news that Jeff Zucker will leave his role as CEO of NBC Universal to Comcast COO Steve Burke after the cable giant acquires the entertainment firm.

"Burke appears likely to focus on revitalizing the NBC network and addressing digital media and subscription model initiatives," Harrigan wrote. "In the interim, Universal head Ron Meyer is apt to remain in position even with uneven market share and financial performance at the Studio," which he doesn't expect to be a near-term priority for Burke. "The NBC Network is simply more important perceptually and from a pop culture vantage point."

According to the analyst, the NBC Universal cable networks make up 78% of NBC Universal's valuation. Thanks to the stronger-than-anticipated recovery in the advertising market, the total company is likely worth slightly more than $32.5 billion, he said. In the Comcast deal, NBC Universal was value at $30 billion.

The negative $600 million value for NBC comes "as it remains a capital call for programming development as long as it remains mired in the #4 network position," Harrigan said.

Thanks to the NBC and Telemundo stations that NBC Universal owns and NBC Universal TV, the value of the firm's overall broadcast division stands at $3.5 billion though, according to the analyst.

The studio's $4 billion and theme park unit's $1.4 billion combine into a total $5.4 billion studio and parks business, according to his estimates.

But both are dwarfed by Harrigan's $32.7 billion valuation for the NBC Universal cable networks, including nearly $6.3 billion for Syfy, $3.9 billion for CNBC, $2.8 billion for MSNBC and $2.6 billion for Bravo.

Harrigan's total adds up to $41.6 billion, from which he subtracts nearly $9.1 billion in corporate and capital expenditures to arrive at a valuation of a bit more than $32.5 billion.

Adding in the $6 billion value of Comcast's cable networks, the combined NBC Universal-Comcast joint venture will be worth $38.6 billion before $9.1 billion of debt, or $29.5 billion when accounting for that debt, Harrigan said. That would put the value of Comcast's 51% stake at around $15 billion.
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