[opendtv] Re: A Station Group with a Future
- From: Craig Birkmaier <craig@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 5 Feb 2007 08:55:36 -0500
At 12:28 PM -0500 2/4/07, Tom Barry wrote:
Predicting things is complicated and often not very accurate. If it
weren't complicated we probably wouldn't be trying to build computer
models to do it better.
The computer models tend to incorporate the same political biases of
their builders. This is a problem, however the computer models can
be more consistent in their bias and eventually are subject to peer
review in one way or another. This means we can either improve them
or at least know how to take their results with a grain of salt.
Weather forecasting has always been something of a joke but very few
would say we should thus stop trying.
Let's be fair here. The quality of weather forecasting has improved
significantly in the past few decades, most notably after we got a
bird's eye view from satellite imagery. But the difficulty in getting
weather forecasts right, even within the same day or a week, speaks
volumes about all of the variables that influence weather patterns.
Truth is, that the science of weather forecasting is still evolving
at a rapid pace, and we know little about many of the variables.
Despite this, however, there is a great deal to be learned from
historic weather patterns. The Atlantic hurricane cycles are an
excellent case in point. Florida was battered by major storms in the
early '1930s, and again in the mid '1960s. Several of these storms
were just as intense, if not more so, than those from the current
cycle.
What is different this time, is that we can see every storm develop,
and measure intensities all along the paths that these storms follow.
In the previous two cycles of the 20th century, we were primarily
dependent on observations as storms approached land, and limited
information from aircraft that flew into the storms when they were
close to the continental U.S.
I was quite amused over the past few years from all of the rhetoric,
coming mostly from non-weather experts, about the supposed fact that
the recent cycle of storms is the direct result of global warming.
The hype is so bad, that I was hearing eye witness reports about the
tornados that hit last week, saying that "this is the worst
destruction I have ever seen, and we need to tell the politicians
that they need to do something about global warming.
How many of you, have been through the horrific experience of a
tornado (other than at Universal Studios)? Most of us have never
seen this up close and personal. I've been lucky enough to be just a
few miles from the path of major tornados in Atlanta, Gainesville,
and have seen first hand the destruction of two storms in the region
that was just hit.
It is very easy to get caught up in the hype of propaganda.
I need to do some tile work outside today. It's very overcast now.
I wonder if it is going to rain...
They say that there's a 10% chance this afternoon.
Hope they are right.
Regards
Craig
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