[opendtv] Re: A Clue as to number of OTA DTV users

  • From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2006 20:56:58 -0500

On 12/13/06, Manfredi, Albert E <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bob Miller wrote:

http://broadcastengineering.com/hdtv/hd-service-fewer-hdtv/

> This is from a top firm and from last week.
>
> Interesting that he has a number for OTA HDTV viewers. He
> says 19% of the 9.8 million US households, that actually
> receive HDTV from any HD service, receive OTA.

Which is just what I suspected. ATSC users as of now are probably mostly
using ATSC for the HDTV content. This is contrary to the "common wisdom"
on here, but it makes perfect sense.

The common wisdom here says that OTA DTV users are using OTA for
something else? What would they be using it for?
I never heard anyone suggest they would be using if for anything else.
Why would anyone go to the trouble of buying an HDTV set and hooking
it up to OTA. No these are the few people who ARE wanting HDTV OTA.
19% of 9.8 million or after NINE years. 1.862 million homes out of 110
million homes and you are excited???


As long as broadcasters don't offer any significantly different CONTENT
over DTT than they offer over OTA analog, the most convincing reason to
transition to ATSC is for the HD content. As people transition to HDTV
sets, and they are doing so in droves, according to the CEA figures Mark
Schubin publishes, use of ATSC goes up and up.

Here is a quote you forgot to mention. And oh by the way, this is
exactly what also motivated my friend recently to use ATSC:

"We also find that consumers aren't willing to pay additional fees for a
digital set-top box or for a monthly HD service fee. That is something
that really turns them off. So they are willing to buy the set, but when
it comes to ponying up another $10 or $15 per month, they kind of draw
the line and say it's not quite worth it."

Nor is it worth if for 81% to buy a $2 antenna to try to receive OTA
HDTV after NINE years.You find that a positive number??

So, from what this article says, we can expect OTA usership to go up, as
people buy HDTV sets with built-in ATSC receiver. If the trend stays the
same, and people buy HDTV sets because that's essentially all people are
buying nowadays, it could mean an increase in OTA from 15 to 19 percent.
The article quotes an increase from 10M homes this year to 24M homes in
four years going to HDTV. So guess what that says about OTA users?

Yes when everyone has converted to digital then 19% of those who have
some form of HD service will use OTA. You could draw that conclusion
if you didn't read the article. The article says that a lot of that
19% represented early adopters who wanted to receive some form of HD
when there was very little or none being offered by cable or
satellite.

Those very early adopters were also mostly pretty well off, tried many
different receivers to find one that worked and often declared that
they would abandon OTA for cable or satellite as soon as they could.

And they could, and they did. I would suggest that most of these early
adopters today have cable or satellite or both and if they still have
OTA don't use it very often. It is there in case of and emergency.
They don't rely on OTA like the 15% (actually 7% or less) who
supposedly still rely on OTA analog.

Seems to me that this is excellent news.

No if you read the article it is not excellent news. It suggest that
the 19% that used to depend on OTA, a miniscule number to begin with,
has probably already eroded and will continue to erode to almost zero
as those early adopters switch to cable and satellite.

No, in the end OTA DTV after analog turnoff will consist of some
pathetic part of those who still rely on analog for TV who will get
their subsidized receivers to work, a few who must have OTA because
they cannot get locals from satellite and a few other diehards who
will not pay for cable and satellite. And there will be some you have
it for backup but don't use it.

Maybe 2% max.

Bob Miller

Also, KXII, a station in Texas, is multicasting two HD programs and one
SD program over their 19.39 Mb/s channel. Without AVC.

Bert


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