[opendtv] Re: A Clue as to number of OTA DTV users

  • From: "Bob Miller" <robmxa@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 13 Dec 2006 23:19:04 -0500

On 12/13/06, Albert Manfredi <bert22306@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Bob Miller wrote:

>The number of OTA users will go up but the percentage of all
>with HD content will go down.

Exactly the opposite. I predicted more than 10 years ago that the question
will not be "How can we make money with HDTV," which was what broadcasters
were asking back then, but rather "In order to compete, you will have to
offer HDTV." In order to sell ad space, you will have to be showing HD
content. (Even if the ad itself is not HD.)

What does that have to with what I said?  I said that the total number
of OTA users will go up but as a percentage of all households
receiving HD content it will go down till it settles around 2% or
lower.

What does "In order to compete" have to do with that? I am not arguing
the HD is the way to go for broadcasters or not. In the end we will
all have HDTV sets and HD content on them. The questions are when and
how many will be using OTA free DTV with 8-VSB.

The answer IMO is probably long term no one will be using 8-VSB to
watch HDTV. In the same long term as per when we all will have HDTV
sets and HD content.

I am arguing that with a better modulation HD would have been better
served especially early on. OTA would have helped. With 8-VSB I think
OTA actually hindered the adoption of HD.

If in 2000 COFDM had been allowed I beleive that within a year
virtually all retail stores would have been demonstrating OTA HDTV,
would have had many OTA receivers for sale and would have been giving
a good education both on OTA and HD.

And this is happening. The more people buy ED/HDTVs, the more they will opt
for the nicer images GIVEN THE OPTION. For example, they will go to the HDTV
newscast if there's one available. And this is what will make more and more
content go to HD.

They can't do any of that if as now up to 60% of HDTV owners don't
even have a source of HD content.

Exactly the same as they did with FM radio and its much improved sound
compared with AM. It takes some time, but people eventually "get it."

Took some time. There we go. My argument is that with COFDM that time
would have been dramatically shortened. With 8-VSB it will indeed take
some time. People will always "eventually get it". In fact maybe they
have. Maybe in the last NINE years word of mouth has convinced most
that OTA if for the birds.

Since this has been happening with TV, first during prime time and now
outside of prime time, I again marvel at your enthusiastic pessimism.

I have NO pessimism as to HDTV over cable and satellite. I am amazed
at your interminable ability to confuse my problem with 8-VSB and
HDTV. I am confused by the numbers that say 60% of HDTV owners have no
source of HD content.

Remember when the nyasayers were commenting about how wise Fox was to go
480p during prime time? I wonder whatever happened to their "wisdom."

I still expect that long term OTA will be used for more "compromised
HD" than real HD. ED still makes a lot of sense.

BTW, did you check out the 2 HD + SD offered by KXII? Must be magic, eh?

That is a factor of compression. Remember my problem is with 8-VSB not
the codec. And if they can pull this off with MPEG2 think what they
could do with MPEG4 AVC. Maybe 4 HD and 2 SD right? My argument is not
with the codec though I think we should switch both modulation and
codec.

If you change one you have the opportunity to change the other since
the main reason not to change is the legacy receivers that can't
handle MPEG4 AVC.

I have not seen what their 2 HD and one SD looks like have you. Hurray
if they can do it what is your point?

Bob Miller


Bert

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