• From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Fri, 18 Jan 2008 16:53:54 -0500

Craig Birkmaier wrote:

> I am mystified by several things in the following TV Newsday
> story:
> 1. APTS CEO John Lawson claims the data suggests that OTA TV may
> be set for a big comeback. But the data in this survey says that
> only 40% of the homes that are still dependent on Free OTA TV
> plan to get a converter box or a new TV and continue to use the
> OTA service. That sound like 60% of those who now depend on OTA
> TV have "other" plans.

I agree that the data suggests no big "comeback." The numbers say that
12 percent of OTA users plan to go to the dark side, 43 percent plan to
take the appropriate actions, and therefore the remaining 45 percent of
OTA users are hopelessly lost and confused. No big surprise there.

> 2. The study reports that 19% of OTA homes plan to do nothing.
> This suggests that they not be watching much TV now and are
> unconcerned that they will not be able to watch after 2/17/09.
> This also suggests that about 3% of U.S. homes do not watch any
> kind of TV on a regular basis. (19% of 15%).

No, this 19 percent is in the overall population. Quoting:

"Still, APTS says, 25 percent of Americans said they 'don't know' what
steps they would take, and 19 percent said they would 'do nothing.' Of
those who said they would 'do nothing,' 17.6 percent of those households
said they would postpone or wait before they take any action, if at

Presumably, 85 percent of THESE housholds in fact don't need to do
anything, at least not for their primary home entertainment system.
Anyone now using cable can let the cable company take care of any
changes, assuming they will be making any changes, and of course DBS
users are totally unaffected.

However, irrespective of this survey, I certainly do agree that OTA TV
*could* witness a big comeback. The problem is, all depends on
broadcasters and what they plan to offer. Indications so far are
certainly not suggesting any big comeback.

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