I was looking for more up to date numbers during 2014. In this article, from April, the predicted upswing in years to come is misleading. It ain't in MVPD subscriptions. Earlier articles, January 2014, predicted the a turn-around during 2014, which has not happened. Interestingly, this article pegs MVPD subscription households in 2013 at 81 percent, not 84 percent, and predicts a drop to 78 percent by 2019. I think there's a big error margin in these numbers, but the trend line is what it is. The consensus seems to be that 2012 was the high point for traditional TV subscriptions. "Forrester Research says that just 6% of all online adults cut their pay-TV cords last year, when looking at just 18- to 24-year-olds the percentage rises to 10%." And, "Home antenna use rose 7% in 2013, according to Strategy Analytics, to 21.5 million households." Also, pay attention Craig, it seems like the cablecos are increasing their rates, to keep good profit margins. I've seen others mentioning this too. It is obvious, is it not, that such tactics ultimately fail? It's a bit like public transportation cutting service to offset loss in ridership. In electronic circuits, that's called "positive feedback," which is to be contrasted with the self-regulating "negative feedback" designs. In other words, a scheme that only makes matters worse. Bert ----------------------------------------------------------- http://247wallst.com/media/2014/04/15/pay-tv-shows-troubling-subscriber-trends/ Pay TV Shows Troubling Subscriber Trends By Paul Ausick April 15, 2014 11:45 am EDT The number of subscribers to pay-TV services dropped by about 588,000 in 2013, but that trend is set to reverse itself between 2014 and 2019, growing from about 101 million subscribers to 103.2 million. The data come from a new report by research firm Strategy Analytics. Growth estimates are based on the trend toward more mobile video content for smartphones and tablets combined with better services that combine streaming video offerings with other pay-TV offerings. That said, however, pay-TV household penetration in the United States is expected to slide from around 81% in 2013 to 78% by 2019. Strategy Analytics attributes the decline to cord-cutting and new homes that won't be getting pay-TV. One reason for the decline is subscriber age. Forrester Research says that just 6% of all online adults cut their pay-TV cords last year, when looking at just 18- to 24-year-olds the percentage rises to 10%. Another 14% of that age group are considering cutting the pay-TV cord while just 9% of all adults are considering the move. There is no data on how many 18- to 24-year-olds have never had a pay-TV subscription of their own. What is making a comeback? The trusty roof-top antenna. Consumers can receive free over-the-air programming and pay for the Internet streaming. Home antenna use rose 7% in 2013, according to Strategy Analytics, to 21.5 million households. While it is hard to say what plans Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) has for its Prime Instant Video offering, Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) would very likely love to tie-up with a pay-TV operator to add a Netflix subscription to the pay-TV subscription. That has long been one of the company's goals for its streaming service, and there is no reason to believe that goal has changed. Such a deal would be a big win for Netflix, which may be why its chances of happening are fairly low. The proposed merger between Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC) would allow Comcast to offer Netflix programming through its Xfinity service, which would serve the demand for mobile access and, perhaps, greater demand for Comcast's traditional cable service. What could also happen is that Comcast could drive a very hard bargain with consumers, forcing them to pay for even more programming that they don't want. That is perhaps the biggest negative to the Comcast-Time Warner merger, and it is not a small one. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- You can UNSUBSCRIBE from the OpenDTV list in two ways: - Using the UNSUBSCRIBE command in your user configuration settings at FreeLists.org - By sending a message to: opendtv-request@xxxxxxxxxxxxx with the word unsubscribe in the subject line.