[opendtv] Re: 20050627 Mark's Monday Memo
- From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 5 Jul 2005 15:08:42 -0400
Craig Birkmaier wrote:
> And they understand that their main leverage - must
> carry/retransmission consent - is only going to last
> as long as analog broadcasts last.
I guess that's the part I don't believe. But thanks
for finally spelling that out.
I believe that cable carriage will easily survive
analog shutdown. First, because cable subscribers will
continue to *demand* carriage of their favorite shows,
even if they could get them via an antenna. Heck, even
DBS subscribers want all their programs directly from
the satellite, if possible, and they already need an
outdoor antenna!
And second, because must-carry of the main program
stream, at least, appears to be easy enough to get.
The problems happen when broadcasters ask for the
whole enchilada. Ask for too much, you might get
nothing.
The other part to this puzzle is whether the 39
percent national cap will survive. Without that, the
broadcasters are also on shaky ground. But that is
completely independent of anything related to DTT. The
39 percent cap will survive simply because the
rhetoric from Congress makes it sound like a 100
percent national cap means you don't get enough points
of view. So local broadcasters will continue to have a
role.
So all in all, I don't see any point to delaying
analog shutdown, as long as receivers like the 5th gen
LG, or better, are on store shelves. And of course,
DTT could open up new doors for OTA broadcasting.
Bert
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