[opendtv] Re: 20040712 Mark's Monday Memo

  • From: "Manfredi, Albert E" <albert.e.manfredi@xxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 13 Jul 2004 16:51:49 -0400

Bob Miller wrote:

> >              - 73.3% - Cable
> >              - 23.5% - DBS satellite
> >              -  1.1% - Satellite master-antenna TV (SMATV)
> >              -  0.4% - C-band satellite
> >              -  0.2% - Multichannel multipoint distribution
> service (MMDS)
> >              -  1.4% - Other:
> ><http://www.ncta.com/pdf_files/Overview.pdf>

> Which leave 11.4% who rely on OTA TV/DTV.
> But cable says that 3 to 4 million households "deliberately
> steal their signals".
> And satellites says that for every 5 legitimate customers
> there is one no so legitimate.
> And tvturnoff.org says 2% of households have no TV what-so-ever.
> None of these households rely on OTA TV/DTV.
> That leaves 3.23% who really rely on OTA TV/DTV.
> Some have suggested recently that the downward spiral in
> those who rely
> on OTA has plateaued. Maybe it would be more correct to say
> hit rock bottom.

Possibly. These numbers are households rather than TV sets,
and they assume that anyone connected to cable MUST NOT also
be connected to DBS. For example, someone who uses cable only
to get broadband Internet service would be counted as a cable
household. E.g. my neighbor uses OTA + cable for IP service +
DBS for the rest of TV channels, so he counts as two separate
households, both of which use multichannel systems, without
increasing the number of total households. Interesting!

That table also uses 97M households as the total number,
but in the back of that same document they claim 108.41M as
being the actual number. The point the table tries to make is
that 1/4 of US households uses *other than* cable for TV
programs, and by the way, the table adds to 100 percent
without mentioning OTA.

But overall, if I were to believe those numbers without
looking any closer, I'd say "all the more reason to shut off
NTSC on 12/31/2006, as originally planned." Never mind any
purported "redefinition" of the 85 percent rule by the FCC.
It's not necessary. I'd say shut OTA off, forget about any
govt assistance for low income households, since there appear
to be none that can't afford some subscription service, and
give a revived DTT system a chance. If it fails, yank back
all the OTA frequencies and auction them off.

(I get about 7.2 percent of households relying on OTA, from
their numbers adjusted to the 108.41M figure, but that's
questionable. It'll be interesting to see what the NAB has
to say to the FCC on this issue, after they finally

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