[opendtv] 20: 20 hindsight and Friday firestorms: Why did we undertake this transition in the first place?
- From: dmenolan <dmenolan@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: Open DTV list <opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2005 12:27:37 -0500
Of course, a more interesting consideration, with the benefit of 20: 20 h=
indsight , is what to do with said spectrum.
a) the drivers for HDTV have been here for 20 years pushed by NHK/Sony/Fl=
aherty + Co and aided and abetted by a few vociferous cheerleaders on thi=
s list. The original thinking that FTA HDTV would replace the NTSC servic=
e now looks shaky, as the baton has been passed to well-funded cable - sa=
tellite pay tv providers (pace Voom in the US). These providers have a lo=
ck on HD-friendly and desirable content such as sport, movies, porn, and =
other first run stuff. The business model is there: results are seen in t=
he cable and satellite pay HD markets in the US. we can expect this to be=
taken to the next level by BSkyB with a state-of-the-art slick HD soluti=
on which will make ATSC look decidely tired. And this in a market where t=
here will not be any terrestrial HDTV anytime soon.
b) the use of terrestrial spectrum for FTA HDTV appears to be a unhappy o=
ne in markets with both COFDM and 8VSB: the penetration levels are pretty=
miniscule in both countries and in the US there are very well funded DBS=
HDTV providers.
c) the FTA SDTV business model has been a success in countries where the =
modulation system does not depend on nth generation receivers. The reason=
for this is also straightforward; FTA multichanel SDTV is basically cann=
ibalising utility or basic cable services. That is why ITV and C4 are now=
having to battle it out for a Freeview slot which is now five+ times the=
2002 asking price. Market forces yet again.
d) Anybody considering terrestrial HDTV now, with a viable business model=
(which might have to be pay. Nothing like emulating the competitors with=
working business models) will have to bite the MPEG4 and progressive sca=
nning bullet. =
e) The true benefit of terrestrial digital spectrum, with modulation sys=
tems which work today, is to provide true portable and mobile services. T=
his will be an instant hit in Europe and Asia but may take time to develo=
p in the US: because of the mismatch in cellular cultures.
f) The mobile industry view liveTV via the mobile as the Holy Grail and t=
he next ARPU growth segment whether delivered by Qualcomm or more flexibl=
e systems such as DVB-H which coexist with existing cellular platforms su=
ch as GSM and UMTS and can be used in 5,6,7 or 8Mhz channel allocations.
g) If it comes to an auction between FTA terrestrial broadcasters for HDT=
V services and mobile/network operators for mobile TV services the latter=
will win hands down because of their cash flows.
h) There will also be a landgrab for prime spectrum by mobile TV operator=
s. UHF Band IV is perfect for mobile Tv services, VHF is a non-starter be=
cause of the requirement for telescopic antennas in mobile phones, and L-=
band requires a very dense and costly transmitter network compared to UHF=
. This is beautifully essayed in Digitag's new report out today on mobile=
TV services available to download free from www.digitag.org
Taken together we are about to see a battle royal start for access to pri=
me terrestrial spectrum and many of the assumptions and thinking develope=
d in the 1980s now look distinctly flawed, dated and swept away by techno=
logy stepchange. Along with 30ft ATSC antennas he said with a resigned ai=
r of sarcasm.
On that note have a lovely weekend all!
Dermot Nolan
-------------Forwarded Message-----------------
From: INTERNET:opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx, INTERNET:opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
To: , INTERNET:opendtv@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
=
Date: 04/03/105 16:52 PM
RE: [opendtv] Re: Why did we undertake this transition in the first place=
?
=
Not an absolute peak, just a local maxima!
----- Original Message ----- =
From: "Mark Schubin" <tvmark@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> FYI, I hardly think interest in HDTV peaked in 1987.
> =
> TTFN,
> Mark
=
=
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Subject: [opendtv] Re: Why did we undertake this transition in the first =
place?
Date: Fri, 4 Mar 2005 11:52:08 -0500
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