[msb-alumni] Are we ready for self-driving cars
- From: Steve <pipeguy920@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: <msb-alumni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2017 13:19:28 -0500
BlankAre we ready for self-driving cars? John Gallagher , Detroit Free Press
In the push to put autonomous vehicles on the nation's roads, the most
challenging aspect might be with the roads themselves, and the bridges, tunnels
and other infrastructure. Cities and states have done little to grapple with
the
enormous demands that autonomous vehicles will place on transportation
infrastructure and on civic policy. States and municipalities barely able to
fill potholes today could soon be charged with creating the world's most
sophisticated roads with embedded sensors, cameras and communication devices to
help autonomous vehicles talk to one another and the environment around them.
"The vehicle development is way ahead of the public policy," warns Jonathan
Levine, a professor of urban planning and a transportation expert at the
University of Michigan.
Asked whether cities were doing enough to get ready, he said, "My short answer
is no, we're not doing what we need to be doing yet."
A year-old report from the National League of Cities found that only 6% of U.S.
cities had devoted
planning resources to figuring out changes needed to accommodate self-driving
vehicles. And only 3% had studied the impact of on-demand transport services
like Uber and Lyft, which function as alternatives to traditional taxi services.
Looming beyond that immediate infrastructure issue for self-driving trucks,
buses, cars, delivery vans and the like are even larger policy questions: How
can cities ensure that their poorer residents who lack transit options today
will not be left further behind in an increasingly driverless world? How can
cities tilt their transit policies toward greener 'smart growth' and away from
environmentally wasteful suburban sprawl?
"We're beginning to think about it," said Carmine Palombo, deputy executive
director of the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, the regional
planning
agency that helps steer transportation investment dollars. "What does it really
mean? Will local units have to ante up for their share of the communications
component of this thing? What's the impact of the bad street system that we
have? What about maintenance? What happens in the snow? If something does
happen on city streets, who's going to be held liable?"
Road maintenance workers Florian Pichlmeier (l) and Hans Hanus from the
Ingolstadt motorway maintenance authorities set up a road sign for autonomous
vehicles on the Autobahn 93 motorway near Wolnzach, Germany, 15 December 2016.
The black-and-white signs serve as reference points for self-driving cars, and
are initially being set up along the Holledau motorway junction along the A9
and
A93. (Photo: MATTHIAS BALK, EPA)
Proponents of self-driving vehicles generally predict an upbeat future, with
significantly reduced accidents and deaths as computers take over from
distracted drivers, leading to reduced insurance and medical costs and other
benefits for society. Optimists also predict greater fuel savings from a
steadier flow of traffic, reducing or eliminating traffic snarls.
But some voices have been raising cautionary notes. "There'll definitely be a
spectrum in terms of the way cities respond to this," said Nicole DuPuis, a
transportation planning expert with the National League of Cities. "One of the
issues that we tried to tap into is how cities are going to be thinking about
land use in a world where there's autonomous vehicles. For example, she asks:
"How should cities invest in parking garages in the future?" Or: "How can
cities
replace revenue from traffic and parking fines that might logically dry up in
an
autonomous vehicle urban landscape."
Cost is a big issue for municipalities. Michigan, like many states, already has
been debating how to pay to fix its crumbling roads and bridges. State
lawmakers
agreed in 2015 to spend more on road repairs in years ahead, but there is
nothing in the plan that addresses requirements for autonomous vehicles.
Lawmakers approved another package last year to make it easier to test
driverless cars in Michigan.
Billions of dollars will be required to refit the nation's millions of miles of
roads with new sensors, signaling devices, and other technology. Nobody knows,
yet, who will pay for that.
Basic questions remain about which technologies will be fitted into roads and
vehicles. Even something as simple as painting crisp, clear white lines on city
streets may become an issue. Faded lines that adequately signal to human
drivers
to stay in their lane may be inadequate to signal to a driverless car.
But U-M's Levine warns that the public policy questions inherent in a
driverless
world are even tougher
to solve. He cites research by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory that
suggests the potential energy use by driverless cars could range anywhere from
a
90% reduction in current energy use to a 200% increase. Because energy use is a
good proxy for environmental impact, Levine said, "the self-driving car could
be
an absolute environmental boon, even a savior, or it could be an absolute
disaster."
The difference lies in how consumers use self-driving cars. If the public buys
self-driving cars much as they buy vehicles today ' a car in every garage --
self-driving technology could greatly increase the amount of miles driven. Say
a
commuter takes a self-driving car to work downtown, and then rather than pay
for
parking, sends it back empty to park at home. At the end of the day, the empty
car returns downtown to pick up the owner. Total usage: two round trips per day
instead of the usual one.
"We'd be driving more and more, but we wouldn't be reaching more destinations,"
Levine said. "In fact, we probably couldn't handle the congestion."
On the possible upside, sharing driverless vehicles through on-demand services
like Uber or Lyft might mean fewer private cars and a savings in energy. But
Levine fears that policies will tilt toward private ownership. He suggests
zoning laws be significantly overhauled to reduce the amount of parking
required
and to encourage more walkable, mixed-use environments where privately owned
cars are less needed.
"When it comes to how the self-driving car fits into our cities and into our
metro areas, I think we haven't begun to scratch the surface," he said. "And
the
danger is we're defaulting toward that scenario where the self-driving car
vastly multiplies vehicle miles traveled."
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