[lit-ideas] Re: statisticions, anyone?

  • From: "Simon Ward" <sedward@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2006 22:57:42 +0100

Though not a statistician (just a sub-standard economist), I looked over the Lancet article and on the assumption that all their calculations are accurate (I'm sure they checked it), the only problem I could see in their methodology was in the procedural rules established to protect their interviewers. However, I doubt this would have impacted upon the results.

What's interesting here is the difference between this (peer reviewed) study and the Iraq Body Count database.

http://www.iraqbodycount.org/index.php

IBC methodology is simply to collect minimum and maximum deaths based on a variety of sources, predominantly media and using at least two sources for each entry. According to IBC there have been a minimum of 43,850 deaths due to violent causes from the invasion in 2003 up to the middle of September this year. In contrast, the Lancet study estimates that there have been over 600,000 additional deaths after the invasion than what would have been expected. The majority, but not all, are violent deaths, predominantly gunshot.

The implication, assuming the Lancet study is accurate and IBC are diligent, is that the media only reports on around 7 per cent of deaths in Iraq.

The other implication is that Bush is way ahead of us all in his knowledge of statistics and he can see through the faulty methodology employed in the Lancet study. I'm sure he'd tell us what's wrong but we're just too dumb to understand it.

Simon




----- Original Message ----- From: "Judith Evans" <judithevans1@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2006 8:13 PM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: statisticions, anyone?


I'm still intrigued however, where all the other 500 people are
being
killed each day 

The article's in The Lancet, it names the places.  (You'll have
to register,)


Judy
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