[lit-ideas] Re: lit-ideas Crime Rate Factors

  • From: Eric Yost <mr.eric.yost@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 14:46:06 -0500

>>When I asked, specifically, what he thought about NYC, he paused. He overall opinion was that what Giuliani may have done was to provide the freedom and the support for the police and community agencies to do their work..


Makes sense to me. This "providing freedom and support" is a lot more significant than it first appears. He encouraged police and criminologists to work together to develop models for most effective policing. In this he was an innovator.

Also, as Mayor, he attended every single funeral of firefighters and police. Tell that to your friend. No other mayor did that. One tangible and heartfelt form of support.


>>(for, as Andreas says, the crime rates were going down--)

Then how to explain the John Jay Criminal College article I posted which cites that as crime rates started going *up* nationwide, NYC's crime continued to go down? And the subsequent article from 2005 showing that overall crime had dropped as much as 70 percent since 1990? Or the 2007 press release now stating that NYC, number 1 in population is now 221 in crime? All based on FBI reports.

It annoys me a bit to have to argue about this. I lived there all the time and know the city infinitely better than any of you, just as you know your hometowns infinitely better than I do. To argue with people who don't *want* to know something because of their political views is upsetting. I don't have a positive opinion of Giuliani because of his political views, but rather from seeing what he did, every day, over the course of years -- not only with crime issues, but also with infrastructure of all kinds ... libraries, subways, parks, you name it. Even improvements in the city bike paths for crying out loud!


>>1. One of the first factors is Effect Strength of Law-enforcement agencies and looks directly at NYC. Anderson (1997) cited the decrease in crime in NYC as evidence that increased community policing has contributed to the decreasing crime rate.

Yes. "Community policing" means that Giuliani approved a policy of applying game theory to communities. Deploying police more effectively and in the right numbers to keep crime down. For example, they discovered a "tipping point" with crime: 100 cops / area = x crimes; 125 cops / area = x crimes; but suddenly, 130 cops / area = .4x crimes.

>>In NYC, mention of the shift to earlier intervention by lower courts as a front-end, proactive approach to prevent crime with more meaningful sanctions and treatment requirements after the first or second minor offense. ... Did Giuliani provide the funding for this? I would be interested to know.

Yes he did. Giuliani is a social liberal, as I wrote earlier. To govern NYC you HAVE to be a social liberal. NYC is probably the most vibrant and complex multicultural city in the world. You don't improve such a city by applying silly abstract political ideologies -- such as GOP or DEM ideologies. You fix things by fixing them, and to hell with ideology. He favored abortion. He eliminated all forms of party machine corruption. He channeled money into the most effective forms of policing and social services. He balanced the city's finances, which Dinkins had left in total ruins. I was there. I saw it happen.

Eric
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