[lit-ideas] Re: lit-ideas Crime Rate Factors
- From: eternitytime1@xxxxxxx
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 21 Dec 2007 13:48:04 -0500
Hi,
Here is an intriguing look at "Reasons Advanced for the Recent Decrease in the
Crime Rate, with Commentary and Conclusions".? It's pretty extensive--the FBI
has, actually a list of 13 factors that affect crime. This report finds support
(or in a couple of cases opposition) for nine of them--and then another two
factors that are not listed in the FBI's list. There are citations of studies
for each of the factors - summarized well, though the author mentions that
"Despite the strident support given to individual factors, none was shown,
unequivocally, to fully explain the recent decline in the crime rate."? It goes
on to mention that it is possible that some factors were influential in a
limited number of situations and some were influential across a wide variety of
situations.
http://caag.state.ca.us/cjsc/publications/misc/why/3sec3.pdf
When I met yesterday evening with a police officer at the conclusion of the
main reason we met, I asked about a little of this. ?(I'm doing some research
for one of them in our area--nice to know that we have this sort of police type
in our area--they actually want research and evidence on things...)?
He basically began mentioning the same factors as in this report (and the FBI
factors) and analyzed them. (this was before I mentioned this report)?
I found the report fascinating because much of my regular work world touches on
involvement in these factos and one of the things that has happened,
increasingly, is the interaction of law enforcement (and the US Justice Dept)
in much of the community-oriented, restorative justice movement--and this
report definitely shows how these arenas are doing their research and being so
innovative as they implement it. (As a librarian, <g>, anyone who does
continuing research in theri profession is rare and to be valued...)
When I asked, specifically, what he thought about NYC, he paused. He
overall?opinion was that what Giuliani may have done was to provide the freedom
and the support for the police and community agencies to do their work.?
Taking a page from LH and JL, I'll try to mention a few that interest me in
terms of this conversation, but if one really wants to see the breadth of the
'why' and then compare to see if Giuliani may or may not have been The One who
was the one who was addressing the crime rate (for, as Andreas says, the crime
rates were going down--and I credit this to the law enforcement and community
agency fields, myself--but positions such as mayors, city councils?and city
managers -- along with federal and state governments who may provide block
grants for particular specialized units to be able to function also have a huge
impact.
1.?One of the first factors is Effect Strength of Law-enforcement agencies and
looks directly at NYC.
Anderson (1997) cited the decrease in crime in NYC as evidence that increased
community policing has contributed to the decreasing crime rate. Police
Commissioner William Bratton ordered a citywide campaign against minor
offenses, such as drinking in public. He ordered police to erquest
identification from anyone suspected of committing an infraction, taking into
custody anyone without acceptable identification. The homicide rate immediately
began declining steeply, with the largest decrease in homicides committed with
guns and out-of-doors. Homicides decreased as both patrol strength and
misdemeanor arrests for quality-of-life offenses increased. These measures have
also been successful in Boston, Houston, Dallas and San Diego.
This next piece might be way the NRA was a bit leary of endorsing Giuliani <g>.
Blumstein and Rosenfeld (1998) wrote that police programs to remove guns from
kids have had some positive effect. These programs include "stop and Frisk"
detentions in NYC, bounty for reports of illegal guns leading to confiscation
in Charleston, SC and "voluntary" searches of homes with suspected illegal
weapons leading to confiscation without criminal charges in St. Louis. Carrying
weapons decreased wihich reduced concern for self-protection. This led to a
declining spiral in carrying and using guns. A decreased homicide rate
followed. Police enforcement of gun confiscation policies along with
community-based policing appear to have contributed to the recent decrease in
the homicide rate in specific localities.
NOTE FROM MB:? This next piece was very much what my police officer was talking
about -- and apparently in our area, there was also a shift...? The above has
been explained ALOT in discussion as to why so many police officers do go sit
out on the road and look for traffic offenders. Not listed in this study, but
quoted in others is the fact that offenders are often 'caught' while doing
minor things 'wrong'--like speeding or driving with expired license plates.
[this is often explained by police who are? stating to the press that they will
be doing 'checks' on certain days--they actually let people know in advance
here and which roads--and it is NOT because they need to 'make a quota' as so
many here say, but because they have seen more hard criminals caught...]
Kelling and Bratton (1998) related an "insiders" view of the decrease in crime
in New York City. Kelling was one of the architects of the policy taht New York
City adopted and Bratton was the Chief of Police who made the policy a reality.
The policy had its orgin in a magazine artcle by Wilson and Kelling (1992)
which stated that police had shifted their focus from maintaining order in
neighborhoods to solving crime. At the community level, disorder and crime are
tightly linked. They literally found taht if a window in a building is broken
and left unrepaired, it won't be long before other windows are broken. Theis
will happen in all neighborhoods, but not because of an innate desire of
residents to break windows. It will happen because one unerqpired window is a
sign that no one cares and that breaking windows has no consequence, and, after
all, it is fun. The authors felt that the link between "order-maintenace" and
"crime-prevention" should be erestablished by police who s
hould return to the view that they ought to protect communities as well as
individuals. After this link was resotred, the spiraling crime rate was brought
under control.
(there is also a quote relating to this of study by a psychologist who did a
study of having a car paked with no license plates and its hood up in the Bronx
and another in Palo Alto, CA. The stripping of the car in the Bronx began
within 10 minutes. (Most of the "vandals" were well-dresssed, seemingly
clearn-cut)? The Palo Alto car was untouched for a week, and he partly smashed
it. Within a few hours, the car had been turned over and destroyed. Again--and
more studies on this are quoted-there is a link between "untended" behavior
that leads to the breakdown of community controls, etc.
Community Policiing--actually the city that has done a great job (in this
report) is Boston. Their campaign was a cooperation between police and citizens
to scrub off graffiti, run youth clubs, provide tutoring and counseling and
look out for truants. A dramatic decrease in juvenile murders followed.
Factor 2: Administrative and investigative emphases of law enforcement--This
was intriguing as I had not thought of the rise of 'color-coded' maps (and now
GPS info)
Factor 3:? Policies of other components of the criminal justice system (ie
proecutorial, judicial, correctonal and probational)? ?This one had a lot of
commentary--some about NYC. (also in my area-the rise of Youth Courts, for
example, is in this arena and at least in MY geographical area, the research
shows its effectiveness in reigning in minor crime youth offendors as a part of
the restorative justice movement)
In NYC, mention of the shift to earlier intervention by lower courts as a
front-end, proactive approach to prevent crime wtih more meaningful sanctions
and treatment requirements after the first or second minor offense. (here the
$$ to do so was mentioned and how NYC set up a community court to arraign
low-level offenders, sentence them to community service and refer them to a
well-staffed social service office)?? Did Giuliani provide the funding for
this?? I would be interested to know. (How would the Republicans view this
concept, I wonder? More $$ for social services? Or was there a different
spin??I do know the US Justice Dept had to fight very very hard in the current
administration's budget to keep the DARE program from being eliminated though
it is effective in areas and very effective where police depts get a good
School Resource Officer in place who can relate to the kids--it was those in
this area who set up the Youth Court program...)
As well--there seems to be a bit of evidence for the RICO Act which has had an
impact in NYC for reduction of violent crime.
MY WORK
The next piece actually related to conversation on one of my
library-professional lists. This was the discussion on keeping gangs from
congregating via public nuisance laws and how this had quite an impact on the
reduction of crime.
The work-related aspect is that a few libraries have 'banned' the use of
MySpace and FaceBook from being accessed from the public library computers
because of the problems of gangs using them to 'meet'.?
(My police guy and I talked about this--for he had mentioned this [on his own]
and it led to discussion on how all ties together...)?
4. Citizens' attidutes toward crime (here are cites towards community
anti-crime organizations, in Brooklyn, fundamental shifts in youth culture to
withdraw from the dangers of the drug culture to the safety of family, home,
church and other institutions. "Some youths formed into two large gangs whose
purpose in the largely Puerto Rican area was to 'uplift the Latino community'"?
(this also concurs with the studies done in Youth Cultural Competence which I
have had to examine for my work-world--the Urban Library Council has some. Can
provide stats on this, if anyone is interested.)
Other factors (commentary is in the article)
5. Population density and degree of urbanization
6. Variations in composition of the population, particularly youth
concentration
7. Economic conditions, including median income, pvoerty level and job
availability (this has LOTS of citations--let's keep the economy as robust as
possible--)
8. Cultural factors and educational, recreational, and religious
characteristics (this one had the most mixy of postive/negative citations for
the conclusion of this being meaningful towards a decrease in crime)
9. Family conditions with erspect to divorce and family cohesiveness (this was
interesting-the idea was that as alternative family structures have become more
common, their effectiveness in preventing crime and deviance has
increased--though discussion as to the increase in reliance on the educational
system for expansion to provide support for the family, no matter its
makeup,?has also contributed...)
10. Drug use (here discussion as to the history of the rise of crack cocaine in
the mid-80s led to unstable-street-corner markets for a drug with a 10-minute
'high' which made it necessary for users to get money quickly and
repeatedly--and increase in gangs bec of it. Lots of cites here. As well as
studies to show that alcohol use is decreasing among non-whites and youth and
has contributed, esp, to lower youth homicide rates)
11. Weapons
Anyway, this me channelling JL for the day...and wondering if anyone will look
up the study or was interested!
Best,
Marlena in Missouri
thinking about gangs using MySpace to plan crimes and if Guiliani will 'ban' it
if he is really going to be tough on crime <g>
-----Original Message-----------------------------------
Date: Wed, 19 Dec 2007 13:13:13 -0500
From: Eric Yost <mr.eric.yost@xxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Anscombe Society threats
>>So why did Paris change? How did Giuliani change that? Didn't crime=20
in the entire USA decrease in the same period? Did Giuliani change that
too?
John repaired his watch. So how did those other watches get repaired?=20
Did John repair those watches?
?>>Whatever happened in NYC would have happened anyway, with or without=20
Giuliani.
Because other people repaired their watches, John's watch would have=20
been repaired even if John did not repair it.
http://www.answers.com/topic/new-york-city-of-southern-new-york?cat=3Dtra=
vel
.. the attendant crime that affects New Yorkers and visitors alike has
seen a continued dramatic reduction from 1993 to 2004=97NYC has a murder
rate half that of cities such as Los Angeles and Chicago, in part as the
result of a concerted effort by local agencies.
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