Maybe it won't be war, but the Republicans are going to need something major
to boost votes in November. A terror alert or two, maybe they'll confirm bin
Laden's demise and claim responsibility (for the typhoid), or perhaps it'll
just be a bombing campaign in Iran when they decide not to do as their told.
I wouldn't place a bet on anything specific, but I'd place a bet on
something.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_M2E-IQNkg&mode=related&search=
Simon
>>Meanwhile, domestic supporters see you as unwavering and just the sort of person to lead a country in difficult times.
War will NOT happen. Consider our troop levels. In the military, fielding one division requires two in reserve: one division leaving the scene, one division training for the scene, and the division that is fielded. That's how it works.
When Clinton reduced the number of divisions in the military, he overthrew the decades-old plan of our military being able to fight two major theater wars simultaneously. Consequently, we do not have the divisional strength to wage a conventional war against Iran.
This was also the problem with troop strength in Iraq. Before Clinton, we had 18 divisions; after Clinton, about 10 poorly-equipped divisions, which meant we could field three divisions at best. (As stated above, for every active division there has to be two: one leaving the scene, one training for it.)
If we had Gulf War I troop strength, we could have put 6 divisions in Iraq and that would have pacified the place. When General Shinseki requested 500,000 troops for Iraq, he was essentially asking for four or five more divisions which we didn't have ... and that's why they gave him the boot. He was telling them we didn't have enough troops to pacify Iraq and they didn't want to hear it.
I believe we had about 90 divisions during WW2 -- feel free to correct me on this -- and so our having only about 1/9th of our WW2 strength gives you a relative idea of our capacity for force projection.
Also, Clinton broke up the functions of Army units to put things like PsyOps and other functions into the Reserve...which is why we have to call up so many Army reservists.
So relax. We're not going to wage conventional war in Iran. Also I'm just telling you how it works, and not blaming Clinton. He probably had no idea we'd need more divisional forces ... although he should have funded a lot more equipment maintenance.
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