Andreas: I agree with most of what you have written here. I wouldn't go as far as you do and say there won't be a democracy in Iraq, but I have strong doubts that there will. Only Turkey has had a viable democracy in the region and they have maintained it only as a result of their military stepping in whenever their constitution was violated - much as our Supreme Court does. So if that's the only way a democracy will work in Iraq, who will step in when their constitution is violated? I think we will hang around for awhile, but at some point some Iraqi government will say that Iraq doesn't need us any longer and we will leave. You asked who the insurgents are. I watched part of a C-Span discussion last night and a couple of experts thought that Iraq was becoming the new training ground for Islamist warriors much like what occurred in Afghanistan prior to 1989. Experts had evidence that some Muslims were leaving Europe to join the insurgents in Iraq. The indication was that any Muslim from any place in the world would be welcomed by the insurgents. My first thought was that if these experts are right, there is a difference between what happened prior to 1989 in Afghanistan and what is happening in Iraq now. In 1989 the US was satisfied when the USSR was defeated and didn't hang around. We never had an army on the ground in Afghanistan at the time. But now, the insurgents are coming to Iraq to gain their battle experience against the U.S. Marines. There may not be as many battle-hardened Islamist warriors returning to such places as Europe as the experts think there will. I definitely agree with your comments about France and Germany. Although in a discussion last night I listened to Der Spiegel's American rep express his pessimism about Germany. He seemed to feel that Germany's 9/11 was just a matter of time. Holland endured their 9/11 when Van Gogh was assassinated and since then they have introduced legislation that someone described as making our Patriot act look like Kumbaya. Lawrence Helm San Jacinto -----Original Message----- From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Andreas Ramos Sent: Friday, December 03, 2004 10:54 PM To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: The winner has already been selected? From: "Phil Enns" <phil.enns@xxxxxxxxxxx> > I agree with the Bush > administration that it matters less who wins and more that the > democratic system gets up and running. There will not be a democracy because none of the three major ethnic factions want a democracy because each of them stands to lose in such a structure. > I don't see why a > Shiite cleric in power is necessarily a problem and I don't think the > Bush administration is in principle opposed to such an outcome. Oh, Phil, if you would only read something about the situation, instead of making theorectical statements about principles. About 60% of the population is Shiite. That means if there is an open vote, the Shiite win. Which guarantees a civil war, because the Sunni, who have been traditionally in power, would lose. The Kurds would also lose. So the Shiite can win the election, but they can't control the other two factions. What's at stake? Hundreds of billions in oil money. If one faction gets the oil, the other two get only sand. The Kurds want their own state. That would cause the breakup of Iraq. But if the Kurds estabish a state, Turkey attacks the Kurds, because a Kurdish state on their border would incite the Kurds within Turkey to start a separationist movement. Iran would love to seize some oil fields as well. There's that Iraq/Iran War and reparations. The only way for Iraq to stay stable would be some sort of power-sharing, quasi federation. But none of the players are stable enough to develop such a plan or stay in such an arrangement. (Actually, the Kurds probably could, but they're too small to matter.) A good question is who are the insurgents? Are they a general anti-USA jihad? Are these various different groups, all fighting the USA? Are some of these ex-Saddam Baathists? Are they angry Iraqi, looking for revenge? Are they patriots, seeking to liberate their country? Where is the money, food, supplies, information, training, etc., coming from? The White House and the media doesn't discuss that very much. > I would just add that it is virtually unthinkable that the US > would not maintain some military presence in Iraq. The US certainly wants to stay there (they built 14 large military bases), but an Iraqi government that has popular support will ask the USA to leave. > If the Iraqi people want civil war, what business is it of the US? Oh, let's see... second largest reserves of oil, total collapse of a volatile region, the catastrophic effects on the West if the oil supplies were to be cut off, the danger of oil switching to Euros, Iraq becoming fundamentalist, a fundamentalist Iraq with billions could easily buy nuclear weapons... any one of those, several of those, very likely several of those. That's why an Iraqi civil war would be a disaster on the beaches of Iowa and the coffee houses of Toronto. > And if things move towards civil war, surely the most > logical intervention would be from the UN. With the US out of Iraq I am > sure we can count on the French and Germans to lead the way. Once again, Phil reaches for arguments divorced from reality. Would UN, France, or Germany intervene? Anyone with even a passing knowledge of the region knows it is extremely unstable, with very powerful actors pushing their various agendas. The Saudi, India, Pakistan, Russia, and Turkey are all on the edge of war over the region. Three of those have nuclear weapons. Israel, armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons, is in middle of it. What kind of idiot would drive an army into the middle of such a mess? Well, okay, asides from Bush? An Iraqi civil war could turn into a free-for-all land grab (okay, oil grab). And that could turn into a nuclear exchange very quickly. Phil, that's why Germany and France won't lead the way. The only country that could have kept the region from going at each other's throats would have been the USA, but the USA has lost so much credibility that it can't take on that role anymore. If you noticed in the news today, Putin and Singh, of Russia and India, made a sharp denouncement of US policies in the Middle East. They say the USA should stop supporting Islamic terrorists. And they're right. Namely, the USA supports Pakistan, and Pakistan arms, trains, and directs the jihad in Kashmir and the former Soviet republics, incl. Chechnya. yrs, andreas www.andreas.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html