[lit-ideas] Re: Ought we to do something about Iran?

  • From: "Andy Amago" <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 1 Feb 2006 22:02:45 -0500

This is a re-statement of the Domino Theory.  What if Iran really does need
to generate electricity?  Nuclear is the cleanest way to go.  Why do you
think MAD wouldn't work?

Maria
West Side Story


> [Original Message]
> From: Eric Yost <eyost1132@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: 2/1/2006 9:56:47 PM
> Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Ought we to do something about Iran?
>
>  >>Count on the fact that young Iranians, even 
> those who may be opposed to the current regime, 
> will rally to their country's defense if we attack 
> it (just like Americans would if the USA were 
> attacked).
>
>
> This argument, which seemed important, is now 
> starting to look wrong-headed. Seems that the 
> intention of acquiring nuclear weapons is in fact 
> uniting Iran. Consider this excerpt from 
> http://www.slate.com/id/2135232/fr/rss/
>
> ____
>
> The regime has been extraordinarily effective in 
> galvanizing support from Iranians across the 
> political spectrum on the nuclear issue. Nuclear 
> energy has become intimately linked to the 
> national character, heralded as an inalienable 
> right. Newspaper editors have been warned against 
> deviating from the official line in their 
> treatment of things nuclear, while melodramatic TV 
> programs promote the merits of nuclear energy and, 
> by extension, independence, on a daily basis.
>
> And what of the reformist politicians Western 
> pundits love to wax lyrical about? In his modest 
> office at Tehran University, Hamid Reza Jaleipour, 
> a strategist with Mosharekat, the country's 
> largest reformist faction, told me, "Our hands are 
> tied, we can't even move." Other than foiled 
> presidential candidate and former parliamentary 
> speaker Mehdi Karroubi's attempt to launch a 
> newspaper and satellite channel (the latter 
> already blocked), little initiative has been taken 
> to reinvigorate a reformist camp that is 
> devastatingly out of touch with the majority of 
> the Iranian people. Outside Iran, the exiled 
> Mujahideen Khalq Organization, which is probably 
> the largest opposition bloc, is more of a cult 
> than a viable political alternative. And within 
> Iran, external support, especially from America, 
> would be the kiss of death?immediately 
> delegitimizing any opposition group.
>
> So, how far can the regime afford to push the 
> nuclear issue? Plainly, it believes it can 
> manipulate oil prices at will and seems to think 
> that clutch trading partners Russia and China, 
> which have preached moderation until now, will 
> protect its interests in the end. Importantly, 
> Tuesday's "reporting" to the security council is 
> short of a more substantive "referral," and Iran's 
> nuclear dossier will not be considered by the 
> council until March. Negotiations about 
> outsourcing enrichment to Russia will continue, 
> and if it comes down to it, some of the more 
> intransigent members of the regime are already 
> saying that Iranians have survived sanctions 
> before?they can most certainly weather them again.
>
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