[lit-ideas] Re: Mideast: Ripples of War
- From: "Lawrence Helm" <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Mon, 31 Jul 2006 21:45:19 -0700
Irene, it would be marvelous if a "pan-Arabic leader like Saladan" emerged
to unite the Arabian masses. We have only been looking at the dark side of
Islamism, that it embraces seventh century social and political standards.
The good side is that their ability to fight is centered in the same
century. They can't fight a modern Western army. Look at the evidence:
What did Arabian armies do against Israel? What did Iraqi armies do against
the U.S.? They bluster, they say they are winning, but they are
slaughtered. It is pitiful. They can't fight a modern war. No, no, Irene,
a Saladan arising in the present day Middle East, unless he arises with a
necklace of atomic weapons, would be a disaster for your Militant Muslims.
What the Middle Eastern Militants are good at is blowing themselves up.
They should stick to what they know.
And now to forestall a series of non-sequiturs from Irene, I shall attempt
to anticipate so as not to have to reply to them:
If you want to advance the non-sequitur that what Hezbolah (not an army
facing a Western army) is doing, that was discussed after reading Bevin
Alexander's in The Future of Warfare: Invading a nation will not be
successful if the invaded nation is willing to mount a guerilla offensive to
wear down the invaders. The purpose of the guerillas is not to defeat the
invaders, they can't, but they can cost them money and make it too expensive
for them to stay. Hezbollah is capable of doing that in the midst of
Lebanon. But they may not be able to manage that in the regions they fully
control.
And lest you go off onto another non-sequitur by saying that is what we (the
U.S.) have encountered just that in Iraq, that is not what we have
encountered (Bevin Alexander discusses the difference). Our present purpose
is to train the Iraqis so they can deal with their own insurgents. Guerilla
offensives are successful because they have the support of a civilian
population that is hostile toward the alien invaders, but if the Iraqis can
be brought up to the point where they can deal with this mixture of Sunni
insurgents and Al-Quaeda volunteers, then America can step aside. No one
will be able to pretend what is facing the Iraqi government is an
insurgency.
And lest you go off onto another non-sequitur by saying that the Sunnis, if
they unified their opposition to the Iraqi government would be insurgents,
if that were to happen you would not have a mere insurgency but a civil war,
which is possible, but that is another subject.
Lawrence
_____
From: lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:lit-ideas-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
On Behalf Of Andy Amago
Sent: Monday, July 31, 2006 8:59 PM
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Mideast: Ripples of War
I heard an interview with Tom Ricks who wrote the book called Fiasco, The
American Military Adventure in Iraq. His worst case scenario is that a
pan-Arabic leader like Saladin might emerge to unite the messes that the
U.S. and its joined at the hip ally Israel created. That's worst case
scenario, Stan, but most likely higher than the 1% probabilities that we're
defending ourselves from in this War on Terror. Sleep tight, Stan.
----- Original Message -----
From: Stan <mailto:writeforu2@xxxxxxxxxxx> Spiegel
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx;Bonnie <mailto:Bonnie121W@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Spiegel;David Cowen <mailto:Davidcowen@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> ;Margaret Spiegel
<mailto:MSpiegel@xxxxxxx>
Sent: 7/31/2006 11:48:39 PM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Mideast: Ripples of War
Christopher Dickey and Rod Nordland's article in this week's Newsweek is a
frightening assessment of what's happening in the Middle East. Frightening
for Israel especially. I usually sleep like a log. Now I'm not sleeping very
well. - S.S.
Take a look at this:
"No one denies that Hizbullah started the fight, with its unprovoked
incursion into Israel, and no one doubts that Israel can win it, at least in
conventional terms. But that's not what matters as much as public
perceptions, and the impact those perceptions have from Tehran to Cairo. The
conflagrations in Gaza, Lebanon and Iraq risk converging, if not on the
ground, then in that virtual realityon satellite television and the Webwhere
Al Qaeda and Hizbullah find recruits for their global networks. Israel can
bomb Lebanon's infrastructure all it wants, but Hizbullah, which operates
beyond the limits of a state, ultimately has no infrastructure. Hizbullah's
own rockets and missiles can miss nearly all their targets, with
comparatively little loss of life, but so long as they keep firing, they
shatter the myth of Israeli invincibility and win friends and admirers in a
radicalized Muslim world. "The Zionist enemy has not been able to reach a
military victo ry," said Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a speech
Friday on his organization's Al-Manar TV, still broadcasting despite Israeli
Air Force strikes that obliterated its studios and transmission towers. "I'm
not saying that. They said that. The whole world is saying that."
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