Excellent article. Right on target. > [Original Message] > From: Andreas Ramos <andreas@xxxxxxxxxxx> > To: <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> > Date: 9/19/2005 9:05:47 PM > Subject: [lit-ideas] Katrina and the American Empire > > An interview from Le Figaro (conservative), where Emmanual Todd talks about catastrophe and > neo-liberalism. Emmanuel Todd is also a research engineer at the National Institute of > Demographic Studies, historian, and author of Après l'empire [After the Empire], published > by Gallimard in 2002 - an essay in which he predicts the "breakdown" of the American system. > > ------------------- > > Emmanuel Todd: The Specter of a Soviet-Style Crisis > By Marie-Laure Germon and Alexis Lacroix > Le Figaro > Monday 12 September 2005 > http://www.lefigaro.com/debats/20050912.FIG0354.html?083700 > > According to this demographer, Hurricane Katrina has revealed the > decline of the American system. > > > Le Figaro. - What is the first moral and political lesson we can > learn from the catastrophe Katrina provoked? The necessity for a > "global" change in our relationship with nature? > > Emmanuel Todd . - Let us be wary of over-interpretation. Let's > not lose sight of the fact that we're talking about a hurricane of > extraordinary scope that would have produced monstrous damage anywhere. > An element that surprised a great many people - the eruption of the > black population, a supermajority in this disaster - did not really > surprise me personally, since I have done a great deal of work on the > mechanisms of racial segregation in the United States. I have known for > a long time that the map of infant mortality in the United States is > always an exact copy of the map of the density of black populations. On > the other hand, I was surprised that spectators to this catastrophe > should appear to have suddenly discovered that Condoleezza Rice and > Colin Powell are not particularly representative icons of the conditions > of black America. What really resonates with my representation of the > United States - as developed in Après l'empire - is the fact that the > United States was disabled and ineffectual. The myth of the efficiency > and super-dynamism of the American economy is in danger. > > We were able to observe the inadequacy of the technical resources, > of the engineers, of the military forces on the scene to confront the > crisis. That lifted the veil on an American economy globally perceived > as very dynamic, benefiting from a low unemployment rate, credited with > a strong GDP growth rate. As opposed to the United States, Europe is > supposed to be rather pathetic, clobbered with endemic unemployment and > stricken with anemic growth. But what people have not wanted to see is > that the dynamism of the United States is essentially a dynamism of > consumption. > > Is American household consumption artificially stimulated? > > The American economy is at the heart of a globalized economic > system, and the United States acts as a remarkable financial pump, > importing capital to the tune of 700 to 800 billion dollars a year. > These funds, after redistribution, finance the consumption of imported > goods - a truly dynamic sector. What has characterized the United States > for years is the tendency to swell the monstrous trade deficit, which is > now close to 700 billion dollars. The great weakness of this economic > system is that it does not rest on a foundation of real domestic > industrial capacity. > > American industry has been bled dry and it's the industrial > decline > that above all explains the negligence of a nation confronted with a > crisis > situation: to manage a natural catastrophe, you don't need sophisticated > financial techniques, call options that fall due on such and such a > date, tax consultants, or lawyers specialized in funds extortion at a > global level, but you do need materiel, engineers, and technicians, as > well as a feeling of collective solidarity. A natural catastrophe on > national territory confronts a country with its deepest identity, with > its capacities for technical and social response. Now, if the American > population can very well agree to consume together - the rate of > household savings being virtually nil - in terms of material production, > of long-term prevention and planning, it has proven itself to be > disastrous. The storm has shown the limits of a virtual economy that > identifies the world as a vast video game. > > Is it fair to link the American system's profit-margin > orientation > - that "neo-liberalism" denounced by European commentators - and the > catastrophe that struck New Orleans? > > Management of the catastrophe would have been much better in the > United States of old. After the Second World War, the United States > assured the production of half the goods produced on the planet. Today, > the United States shows itself to be at loose ends, bogged down in a > devastated Iraq that it doesn't manage to reconstruct. The Americans > took a long time to armor their vehicles, to protect their own troops. > They had to import light ammunition. What a difference from the United > States of the Second World War that simultaneously crushed the Japanese > Army with its fleet of aircraft carriers, organized the Normandy > landing, re-equipped the Russian army in light materiel, contributed > magisterially to Europe's liberations, and kept the European and German > populations liberated from Hitler alive. The Americans knew how to > dominate the Nazi storm with a mastery they show themselves incapable of > today in just a single one of their regions. The explanation is simple: > American capitalism of that era was an industrial capitalism based on > the production of goods, in short, a world of engineers and technicians. > > Isn't it more pertinent to acknowledge that there are > virtually no > more purely natural disasters, rigorously defined, by virtue of the > immoderation of human activities? Isn't it the case that the "American > Way of Life" must reform itself? By, for example, agreeing to the > constraints of the Kyoto Protocol? > > The societies and ecological incorporations of Europe and the > United States differ radically. Europe is part of a very ancient peasant > economy, accustomed to draw its subsistence from the soil with > difficulty in a relatively temperate climate, spared from natural > catastrophes. The United States is a brand new society that began by > working a very fertile virgin soil in the heart of a more threatening > natural environment. Its continental climate, much more violent, did not > constitute a problem for the United States as long as it enjoyed a real > economic advantage, that is, as long as it had the technical means to > master nature. At present, the hypothesis of man's dramatization of > nature is not even necessary. The simple deterioration in the technical > capacities of a no-longer-productive American economy created the threat > of a Nature that would do no more than take back its [natural] rights. > > Americans need more heating in the winter and more air- > conditioning > in the summer. If we are one day confronted with an absolute and no > longer relative penury, Europeans will adapt to it better because their > transportation system is much more concentrated and economical. The > United States was conceived with regard to energy expenditures and space > in a rather fanciful, not well-thought out, manner. > > Let's not point our fingers at the aggravation of natural > conditions, but rather at the economic deterioration of a society that > must confront a much more violent nature! Europeans, like the Japanese, > have proven their excellence with regard to energy economization during > the preceding oil shocks. It's to be expected: European and Asian > societies developed by managing scarcity and, in the end, several > decades of energetic abundance will perhaps appear as a parenthesis in > their history one day. The United States was constructed in abundance > and doesn't know how to manage scarcity. So here it is now confronted > with an unknown. The beginnings of adaptation have not shown themselves > to be very promising: Europeans have gasoline stocks, Americans crude > oil stocks - they haven't built a refinery since 1971. > > So it's not only the economic system you blame? > > I'm not making a moral judgment. I focus my analysis on the rot of > the whole system. Après l'empire developed theses that in aggregate > were quite moderate and which I am tempted to radicalize today. I > predicted the collapse of the Soviet system on the basis of the > increases in the rates of infant mortality during the 1970-1974 period. > Now, the latest figures published on this theme by the United States - > those of 2002 - demonstrated the beginning of an upturn in the rates of > infant mortality for all the so-called American "races." What is to be > deduced from that? First of all, that we should avoid "over-racializing" > the interpretation of the Katrina catastrophe and bringing everything > back to the Black problem, in particular the disintegration of local > society and the problem of looting. That would constitute an ideological > game of peek-a-boo. The sacking of supermarkets is only a repetition at > the lower echelons of society of the predation scheme that is at the > heart of the American social system today. > > The predation scheme? > > This social system no longer rests on the 'Founding Fathers' > Calvinist work ethic and taste for saving - but, on the contrary, on a > new ideal (I don't dare speak of ethics or morals): the quest for the > biggest payoff for the least effort. Money speedily acquired, by > speculation and why not theft. The gang of black unemployed who loot a > supermarket and the group of oligarchs who try to organize the "heist" > of the century of Iraq's hydrocarbon reserves have a common principle of > action: predation. The dysfunctions in New Orleans reflect certain > central elements of present American culture. > > You postulate that the management of Katrina reveals a worrying > territorial fragmentation joined to the carelessness of the military > apparatus. What must we then fear for the future? > > The hypothesis of decline developed in Après l'empire evokes the > possibility of a simple return of the United States to normal, certainly > associated with a 15-20% decrease in the standard of living, but > guaranteeing the population a level of consumption and power "standard" > in the developed world. I was only attacking the myth of hyper-power. > Today, I am afraid I was too optimistic. The United States' inability to > respond to industrial competition, their heavy deficit in > high-technology goods, the upturn in infant mortality rates, the > military apparatus' desuetude and practical ineffectiveness, the elites' > persistent negligence incite me to consider the possibility in the > medium term of a real Soviet-style crisis in the United States. > > Would such a crisis be the consequence of Bush Administration > policy, which you stigmatize for its paternalistic and social Darwinism > aspects? Or would its causes be more structural? > > American neo-conservatism is not alone to blame. What seems to me > more striking is the way this America that incarnates the absolute > opposite of the Soviet Union is on the point of producing the same > catastrophe by the opposite route. Communism, in its madness, supposed > that society was everything and that the individual was nothing, an > ideological basis that caused its own ruin. Today, the United States > assures us, with a blind faith as intense as Stalin's, that the > individual is everything, that the market is enough and that the state > is hateful. The intensity of the ideological fixation is altogether > comparable to the Communist delirium. This individualist and > inequalitarian posture disorganizes American capacity for action. The > real mystery to me is situated there: how can a society renounce common > sense and pragmatism to such an extent and enter into such a process of > ideological self-destruction? It's a historical aporia to which I have > no answer and the problem with which cannot be abstracted from the > present administration's policies alone. It's all of American society > that seems to be launched into a scorpion policy, a sick system that > ends up injecting itself with its own venom. Such behavior is not > rational, but it does not all the same contradict the logic of history. > The post-war generations have lost acquaintance with the tragic and with > the spectacle of self-destroying systems. But the empirical reality of > human history is that it is not rational. > > > > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, > digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html