[lit-ideas] Iran and the Long War

  • From: Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Wed, 12 Apr 2006 19:07:36 -0700 (PDT)

THE ROVING EYE 
The war on Iran 
By Pepe Escobar 

"All options, including the military one, are on the
table."
- US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld 

"I announce, officially, that dear Iran has joined the
nuclear countries of the world." 
- President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, saying on Tuesday that
Iran had successfully enriched uranium for the first
time, a landmark step toward its quest to develop
nuclear fuel. 

The ominous signs are "on the table" for all to see.
The Pentagon has its Long War, the rebranded "war on
terror" that Vice President Dick Cheney swears will
last for decades, a replay of the war between Eastasia
and Oceania in George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four. 

President George W Bush issued a "wild speculation"
non-denial 



denial that the US was planning strategic nuclear
strikes against 
Iran, but Iran considerably upped the ante on Tuesday
with President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's announcement that
Iran had enriched uranium for the first time. In a
nationally televised speech, Ahmadinejad urged the
West to stop pressuring Tehran, saying that Iran was
seeking to develop nuclear energy only for peaceful
purposes. 

Iranian nuclear officials say the country has produced
100 tonnes of uranium gas, an essential ingredient for
enrichment. The United Nations Security Council has
demanded that Iran stop all uranium-enrichment
activity by April 28. Iran has rejected the demand. 

From the point of view of the Pentagon's Long War, a
strategic nuclear attack on Iran can be spun to
oblivion as the crucial next stage of the war on
"radical Islam". From the view of a factionalized
European Union, this is (very) bad business; the
Europeans prefer to concentrate on the factionalized
nature of the Iranian government itself and push for a
nuclear deal. 

Iranian government officials claim that the Germans
and the Italians - big trade partners with extensive
economic interests in the country - are pushing for a
deal more than the French and much more than the
British. As much as the EU cannot possibly agree on a
unified foreign policy, Europeans in fact reject both
sanctions and/or a possible US military strike. 

Hitler meets Iraqification
The demonization of Ahmadinejad in some quarters in
the US as the "new Adolf Hitler" is beside the point.
As Asia Times Online has shown (The ultimate martyr,
April 12), all crucial decisions in Iran remain with
the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad has been downgraded by the leader to play
a "domestic" president's role. 

His vocal, nationalist defense of Iran's civilian
nuclear program follows the leader's script, and is
met with approval because virtually all Iranians
regard the issue as a matter of national right and
pride. 

According to a late-January poll by the Iranian
Students Polling Agency, 85.4% of Iranians are in
favor of continuing with the nuclear program. More
than 80% feel the country needs nuclear energy. And
about 70% regard the European negotiation side as
"illogical". 

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic
Revolution in 1979, issued a fatwa in the 1980s
declaring that production, possession and use of
nuclear weapons was against Islam. Russia, China and
India still take him at his word. 

For the Iranian government, the nuclear program is a
powerful symbol of independence with regard to what is
perceived as Anglo-Saxon colonialism. The view is
shared by Iranians of all social classes and education
backgrounds. Moreover, Iran is pushing for a leading
role in the Non-Aligned Movement, stating that every
country has the right to a peaceful nuclear program.
What Iran officially wants is a nuclear-free zone in
West Asia, and that includes Israel, the sixth nuclear
power in the world with more than 200 nuclear
warheads. 

But the issue itself may be beside the point. What's
really at stake is that while the occupation of Iraq
might be downgraded, the "invisible" US military bases
will consolidate the US presence in Iraq and the
Persian Gulf region. Ahmadinejad in this scenario is
the perfect Hitler; US troops - and bases - must
remain on the ground to prevent Iran from going
nuclear and to prevent Iran's influence in Iraq's
"Shi'iteistan". 

Meanwhile, Washington's avowed initiative of financing
groups to provoke "regime change" from within is
widely viewed in Tehran as a joke. What Iranians -
both in government and in the bazaars and tea shops -
take very seriously is the US lending a hand to Israel
squeezing Palestine even more - a development also
spun in Washington as part of the war on "radical
Islam". The Quadrennial Defense Review - the
Pentagon's strategic document calling for the Long War
against terror - can be easily interpreted as a call
for a war on Islam. 

The first steps towards war
A war on Iran could involve many military scenarios.
Iranian officials are aware that the US may go for an
initial "shock and awe". But they play down the
possibility of a street revolution toppling the
nationalist theocracy, as Washington hopes; the regime
controls everything, and in the event of a foreign
attack, virtually the whole population would rally
behind the government. They also exclude attacking
Israel, because they know Israel may respond with a
nuclear strike. But they do not rule out the
possibility of the US dropping nuclear bombs on Iran. 

Iran's current demonology instrumentalizes the UN
Security Council, in the name of "peace" and nuclear
non-proliferation. But Iranian officials keep
complaining that the country's official nuclear
proposal was never examined in full by the EU. It
included a provision that Iran would continue to
negotiate with the EU-3 (Germany, France and Britain)
on uranium enrichment for two more years, and would
resume enrichment only if negotiations failed. The
next step in the Security Council may be the
imposition of "intelligent sanctions" - an oxymoron.
In practice, that would mean a partial trade embargo
on Iran, excluding food and of course oil and gas. Oil
and gas are once again the heart of the matter. A
recent energy conference in Tehran (In the heart of
Pipelineistan, March 17) made it clear that Iran is a
crucial node of a proposed Asian energy-security grid,
which includes China, Russia and India. This grid
would bypass Western - especially US - control of
energy supplies and fuel in a real 21st-century
industrial revolution all across Asia. It's no wonder
that many analysts view the war on Iran in essence as
a war of the United States against Asia. 

The ultimate prize
As was the case with Iraq, Iran is being sold as a
threat to world peace (it may be pursuing nuclear
weapons). Bush - at least vocally - hopes diplomacy
will prevail. But the decision to attack may have been
made already, just as it was taken regarding Iraq way
before March 2003. 

Iraq had signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT) but was accused of possessing weapons of mass
destruction (WMD). UN weapons inspectors were expelled
on the eve of the 2003 war. Iran has also signed the
NPT, but is being accused of pursuing a
nuclear-weapons program. UN weapons inspectors still
work in the country on and off - but for how long? 

In 1995, Iraq told UN inspectors, via Saddam Hussein's
brother-in-law Hussein Kamel, about a secret
nuclear-weapons program, which had just been scrapped.
This did not prevent the regime from being accused of
concealing WMD just before the March 2003 invasion. In
2002, Iran told the UN that it had a secret nuclear
program - not a weapons program. This did not prevent
Iran from being accused four years later by the EU-3
of "concealment and deception". 

In November 2002, the US threatened to strike Iraq
unless it cooperated with UN inspectors. The US
invaded Iraq anyway, without Security Council backing.
In January, the EU-3 called for Iran to be referred to
the Security Council. Sanctions may be applied. If no
diplomatic solution is found, the Pentagon may find
the opening it seeks for the next stage of its Long
War. 

Iran is not to be easily intimidated. Few in Tehran
take the threat of oil sanctions seriously. Iranians
know that even if the US decided to bomb the country's
nuclear sites, they are maintained by Russian advisers
and technicians; that would mean in effect a
declaration of war against Russia. Russia recently
closed a US$700 million deal selling 30 Tor M-1
surface-to-air missiles to Iran - very effective
against aircraft, cruise missiles and guided bombs.
The missiles will be deployed at the nuclear-research
center at Isfahan and the Bushehr reactor, which is
being built by Russia. 

Iranians know Shi'ites in the south and in Baghdad
would turn extreme heat on the occupation forces in
Iraq. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, on an official
visit to Iran, according to his spokesman, said that
"if any Islamic state, especially the Islamic Republic
of Iran, is attacked, the Mehdi Army would fight
inside and outside Iraq". 

Iranians also know they can bypass any trade sanctions
by trading even more with China. Anyway, Mohammed-Nabi
Rudaki, deputy chairman of the National Security and
Foreign Policy Commission, which sits at the majlis
(parliament), has already threatened that "if Europe
does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio
and it is referred to the UN Security Council and
economic or air travel restrictions are imposed
unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the
last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the
Strait of Hormuz". 

Up to 30% of the world's oil production passes through
the strait. Were Iran to block it, the United Arab
Emirates and Kuwait would not be able to export their
oil. The Pentagon may eventually get its Long War -
but not exactly on its terms. 

(Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication
and republishing .)

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