[lit-ideas] Re: Grice and the logic of confirmation
- From: Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: "lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 21 Mar 2014 11:23:19 -0700 (PDT)
Reichenbach in Experience and Prediction provides a fairly convincing account
or defense of the validity of inductive reasoning in terms of the probability
or 'weight' of a hypothesis being increased by successive confirming
observations, in proportion to their number and frequency. (Mainly, even though
it is more complicated than that, and mathematical theories of probability are
involved.) He does not claim that this is necessarily the only or the main
method by which scientists arrive at new hypotheses, and acknowledges the role
of conjectures and intuitions in the process of discovery. Since Popper also
grants that hypothesis are 'corroborated' by successive failed attempts at
falsification, the difference so far might be one of terms rather than
substance. However, Reichenbach emphasizes that scientific theories need to be
capable of predicting future events for the purposes of planning human action,
which renders it necessary that they should be as
reliable as possible. Popper, on the other hand, seems to be more concerned
with the explanatory power of hypotheses rather with their predictive
reliability.
O.K.
On Friday, March 21, 2014 6:15 PM, Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
>O. T. O. H., cfr. the reverse implicature we get by exchanging adverbs:>
The "reverse implicature"? Whatever next?
Dnl
Ldn
On Friday, 21 March 2014, 16:02, "Jlsperanza@xxxxxxx" <Jlsperanza@xxxxxxx>
wrote:
Subj: Re: [lit-ideas] Re: Popper's "critical approach" to science seen in
action
In a message dated 3/21/2014 6:18:56 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
_donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxx.uk_ (mailto:donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx) quotes:
"Nevertheless, the signal will have to be confirmed. "I think a lot of
people will be looking very critically at this," says Pontzen.'"
and comments:
"Very critically" being the operative words - not "very inductively".
O. T. O. H., cfr. the reverse implicature we get by exchanging adverbs:
"And then, Ponzen said,
"I think a lot of people will be looking very inductively at this."
On the OTHER hand (can we use this in sequence, or does this implicate that
we have three hands?) the keyword may well be, 'confirm', which many
(including Vincenzo Crupi, below) take as synonym for 'inductively prove'.
Or not.
Note that, granted, as even Pontzen may grant, to confirm a theory is
different from (or 'than', as some
sociolects go) to confirm a signal.
Or not?
Cheers,
Speranza
'Confirmation',
Crupi, Vincenzo, "Confirmation", The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
(Spring 2014 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), forthcoming URL =
<http://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2014/entries/confirmation/>.
Selected references:
Betz, G., 2013, “Revamping Hypothetico-Deductivism: A Dialectic Account of
Confirmation”,Erkenntnis (doi: 10.1007/s10670-012-9406-3).
Chandler, J., 2013, “Contrastive Confirmation: Some Competing Accounts”,
Synthese, 190: 129–138.
Christensen, D., 1997, “What Is Relative Confirmation?”, Noûs, 3: 370–384.
.
Crupi, V. and K. Tentori, 2013, “Confirmation as Partial Entailment: A
Representation Theorem in Inductive
Logic”,Journal of Applied Logic, 11: 364–
372.
–––, “Confirmation Theory”, in A. Hájek and C. Hitchcock (eds.), Oxford
Handbook of Philosophy and Probability, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Crupi, V., R. Festa, and C. Buttasi, 2010, “Towards a Grammar of Bayesian
Confirmation”, in M. Suárez, M. Dorato, and M. Rédei (eds.), Epistemology
and Methodology of Science, Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 73–93.
Crupi, V., B. Fitelson, and K. Tentori, 2008, “Probability, Confirmation,
and the Conjunction Fallacy”, Thinking & Reasoning, 14: 182–199.
Douven, I. and W. Meijs, 2006, “Bootstrap Confirmation Made Quantitative”
, Synthese, 149: 97–132.
Earman, J. and W.C. Salmon, 1992, “The Confirmation of Scientific
Hypotheses”, in M.H. Salmon et al., Introduction to the Philosophy of Science,
Englewood
Cliff: Prentice Hall, pp. 42–103.
Festa, R., 1999, “Bayesian Confirmation”, in M. Galavotti and A. Pagnini
(eds.), Experience, Reality, and Scientific Explanation, Dordrecht: Kluwer,
pp. 55–87.
Fitelson, B., 1999, “The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation
and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity”, Philosophy of Science, 66: S362–78.
Fitelson, B. and J. Hawthorne, 2010, “How Bayesian Confirmation Theory
Handles the Paradox of the Ravens”, in E. Eells and J. Fetzer (eds.), The Place
of Probability in Science, Dordrecht: Springer, pp. 247–276.
Gillies, D., 1989, “Non-Bayesian Confirmation Theory and the Principle of
Explanatory Surplus”, in A. Fine and J. Leplin (eds.), Proceedings of the
1988 Biennial Meeting of Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 2, East
Lansing (MI): Philosophy of Science Association, pp.
381–392.
Glass, D.H., 2013, “Confirmation Measures of Association Rule
Interestingness”, Knowledge-Based Systems, 44: 65–77.
Hawthorne, J., –––, 2011, “Confirmation Theory”, in D. Gabbay, P.
Thagard, J. Woods, P.S. Bandyopadhyay, and M. Forster (eds.), Handbook of the
Philosophy of Science: Philosophy of Statistics, Dordrecht: Elsevier, pp. 333–
389.
Hempel, C.G., –––, 1943, “A Purely Syntactical Definition of Confirmation”
, Journal of Symbolic Logic, 8: 122–143.
–––, 1945, “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation”, Mind, 54: 1–26, 97–
121.
Hosiasson-Lindenbaum, J., 1940, “On Confirmation”, Journal of Symbolic
Logic, 5: 133–148.
Huber, F., 2008a, “Hempel's Logic of Confirmation”, Philosophical Studies,
139: 181–189.
Maher, P., –––, 2006, “Confirmation Theory”, in D.M.
Borchert (ed.),
Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2ndedition), Detroit (MI): Macmillan Reference.
Milne, P., 1996, “Log[P(h|eb)/P(h|b)] Is the One True Measure of
Confirmation”, Philosophy of Science, 63: 21–6.
–––, “On Measures of Confirmation”, British Journal for the Philosophy
of Science.
Musgrave, A., 1974, “Logical versus Historical Theories of Confirmation”,
British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 25: 1–23.
Norton, J., –––, 2011b, “Challenges to Bayesian Confirmation Theory”, in
D. Gabbay, P. Thagard, J. Woods, S. Bandyopadhyay, and M. Forster (eds.),
Handbook of the Philosophy of Science: Philosophy of Statistics, Amsterdam:
Elsevier, pp. 391–440.
Okasha, S., 2011, “Experiment, Observation, and the Confirmation of Laws”,
Analysis, 71: 222–232.
Peijnenburg, J., 2012, “A Case of
Confusing Probability and Confirmation”,
Synthese, 184: 101–107.
Salmon, W.C., –––, 1975, “Confirmation and Relevance”, in Maxwell and
Anderson, 1975, pp. 3–36.
–––, 2001, “Explanation and Confirmation: A Bayesian Critique of
Inference to the Best Explanation”, in G. Hon and S.S. Rakover (eds.),
Explanation: Theoretical Approaches and Applications, Dordrecht: Kluwer, pp.
61–91.
Schlosshauer, M. and G. Wheeler, 2011, “Focussed Correlation, Confirmation,
and the Jigsaw Puzzle of Variable Evidence”, Philosophy of Science, 78:
376–392.
Schurz, G., –––, 2005, “Bayesian H-D Confirmation and Structuralistic
Truthlikeness: Discussion and Comparison with the Relevant-Element and the
Content-Part Approach”, in R. Festa, A. Aliseda, and J. Peijnenburg (eds.),
Confirmation, Empirical Progress, and Truth
Approximation. Essays in Debate
with Theo Kuipers, Vol. I, Amsterdam: Rodopi, pp. 141–159.
Sprenger, J., 2011a, “Hempel and the Paradoxes of Confirmation”, in
Gabbay, Hartmann, and Woods, 2011, pp. 231–260.
–––, 2011b, “Hypothetico-Deductive Confirmation”, Philosophy Compass, 6:
497–508.
Steel, D., 2007, “Bayesian Confirmation Theory and the Likelihood Principle
”, Synthese 156: 55–77.
Steele, K. and C. Werndl, 2013, “Climate Models, Calibration, and
Confirmation”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 64: 609–635.
Tentori, K., V. Crupi, and D. Osherson, 2007, “Determinants of Confirmation
”, Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 14: 877–83.
–––, 2010, “Second-order Probability Affects Hypothesis Confirmation”,
Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 17: 129–34.
Williamson, J., 2011,
“An Objective Bayesian Account of Confirmation”, in
D. Dieks, W.J. Gonzalez, S. Hartmann, T. Uebel, and M. Weber (eds.),
Explanation, Prediction, and Confirmation, Berlin: Springer, 2011, pp. 53–81.
Woodward, J., 1983, “Glymour on Theory Confirmation”, Philosophical
Studies, 43: 147–152.
–––, 2011, “Scientific Explanation”, The Stanford Encyclopedia of
Philosophy (Winter 2011 Edition), E.N.
Zalabardo, J., 2009, “An Argument for the Likelihood Ratio Measure of
Confirmation”, Analysis, 69: 630–5.
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