[lit-ideas] Re: Five Years Ago
- From: "Andy Amago" <aamago@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "lit-ideas" <lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 13 Sep 2006 09:17:42 -0400
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Helm
To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: 9/13/2006 1:12:00 AM
Subject: [lit-ideas] Re: Five Years Ago
Our Left isn't support Islamism in Iraq. It is supporting the Islamist
position here in this country in the Media, universities, etc. They are
undermining our will to persevere in a difficult situation in the Middle East.
Islamism doesn't equal Shiism; so I don't know what you mean.
A.A. Have no planning, actively suppress planning, don't even know who you're
invading, expect to be greeted as liberators with flowers, then blame the media
for losing the war. Are you serious Lawrence? The war was lost virtually the
day of the invasion. It was botched botched botched. If anything, the media
*under* reported and under reports how bad it is. The media gave Bush a free
ride.
L.H. Vali Nasr, purported to be the greatest authority on political Islam said
(several days ago on CSPAN2) regarding Iraq that the Sunni insurgents hoped by
being as disruptive as possible to convince the US to leave and the current
government that it couldn't succeed.
A.A. And it took the brilliant American war machine totally by surprise,
imagine that.
L.H. Initially the Shiites took these attacks without responding. But
eventually the Shia militias decided enough was enough and have been striking
at the Sunnis to show them that they cannot succeed in what they planned. Nasr
didn't say that the Sunnis would now automatically all come to the table. In
fact he thought we should attempt to bring pressure to bear on them from Saudi
Arabia. But Iran and Syria would need to be part of that as well. The
situation could develop into a Civil War but we aren't there yet. He says the
Shias look to Iran for protection. The Sunnis look to Saudi Arabia and the
Kurds look to us. But all this can be pulled together if we use an approach
like we used in Afghanistan.
A.A. The Civil War may have started on August 29, 2003 according to Galbraith.
The only ones who don't know there's a civil war are the Americans. The Sunni
and Shia have centuries old religious hatreds that were unleashed. This thing
took on a life of its own. There's really no way to stop it. Baghdad is the
worst of Iraq because it's the most mixed.
L.H. I don't know what you mean by an Islamicist government. The government
is still technically democratic, part Shia, part Sunni and part Kurd.
A.A. The Kurds want nothing to do with Iraq. They're out of there and have
never been in. Have you ever heard about violence in Kurdistan? No, of course
not, because they're independent. They are friendly to the Americans even if
the Americans have not treated them that well at times. It's difficult to
imagine how Iraq could have a democracy (and it was never a democracy, just
Americans telling them what to do), but how can there physically be a democracy
if they're killing each other? They need a truce, not a democracy. How could
we have had a democracy while we were fighting our revolution? There is no
truce forthcoming until it somehow burns itself out and we'll see what rises
from the ashes. We have to hope it doesn't spill over the borders. Then we're
in trouble.
L.H. (other post): Valli Nasr said we handled Afghanistan exactly right.
A.A. We didn't have anywhere enough troops and then we dropped them like a hot
potato and the Taliban sneaked right back in. I remember hearing a discussion
in 2004 (maybe even earlier) that they were hanging around on street corners,
sending out trial balloons so to speak.
L.H. We got all the surrounding nations to sit down at a meeting in Europe. I
don't remember this meeting and haven't read his book yet, but when they all
agreed to support the Afghan government, there wasn't anything of a serious
nature that could thwart it.
A.A. I don't remember this at all, and it flies in the face of what's going on
over there.
L.H. Yeah there are warlords and some resurgent Taliban and they still raise
drugs, but there is no serious impediment that will prevent them succeeding as
a nation.
A.A. There are only warlords (the country's a big Mafia), a powerful resurgent
Taliban and drugs are their mainstay money maker. How do you plan on having a
country under those circumstances?
L.H. He says we need to do that with Iraq.
A.A. We did a variation on that in Iraq. In fact, Afghanistan early on became
a model for what Iraq would be. Iraq overtook the model but Afghanistan is now
coming into its own. We never finished. Instead, we dropped them and went
into Iraq. And for this Wolfowitz was rewarded with a cushy job.
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