I think that Hume might say - or at any rate I would say - that determing probabilities has little to do with logic and much more with empirical obervation. Suppose that you are in someone's kitchen and there are three boxes on the shelf. In one, there is salt. The second one is empty. A guess as to what could be in the third one would be much better informed by empirical knowledge of the kitchen owner's habits and preferences than by any logical inference. Or so it seems to me. O.K. --- Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: > > --- John Wager <john.wager1@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: > > > Donal McEvoy wrote: > > > > >You are given a proposition: "All swans are > white". > > > > > >You are given three boxes to test the > proposition. > > > > > >You open Box 1: in it is a white swan. > > > > > >Box 2: is empty. > > > > > >Box 3: you are not allowed to open. Until, that > is, you have found a way > > to > > >say _as a probability_ what should _probably_ be > in the box. > > > > > > > > > > Can I say "as a probabillity" what is NOT in the > box? "Probably" there > > is NOT a swan of either color, > > because in my experience ("probability") boxes > don't contain swans. We > > are left with just one swan, a white one. > > > > > > There is thus SOME evidence for the proposition > that "all swans are > > white" but not enough to either confirm or > > disconfirm it as a generality. > > > In the word of Eric Morcambe: "Rubbish!". Have a > (logical) look at your smug > and stupid last paragraph - a truly appalling piece > piece of thought! > > Waken up! > > Donal > > > > > > Send instant messages to your online friends > http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com > ------------------------------------------------------------------ > To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, > vacation on/off, > digest on/off), visit > www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html > ____________________________________________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? Everyone is raving about the all-new Yahoo! Mail beta. http://new.mail.yahoo.com ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html