## [lit-ideas] Re: Back to Popper (and further back to Hume)

• From: Omar Kusturica <omarkusto@xxxxxxxxx>
• To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
• Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2006 18:37:19 -0800 (PST)

```I think that Hume might say - or at any rate I would
say - that determing probabilities has little to do
with logic and much more with empirical obervation.
Suppose that you are in someone's kitchen and there
are three boxes on the shelf. In one, there is salt.
The second one is empty. A guess as to what could be
in the third one would be much better informed by
empirical knowledge of the kitchen owner's habits and
preferences than by any logical inference. Or so it
seems to me.

O.K.

--- Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>
> --- John Wager <john.wager1@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> > Donal McEvoy wrote:
> >
> > >You are given a proposition: "All swans are
> white".
> > >
> > >You are given three boxes to test the
> proposition.
> > >
> > >You open Box 1: in it is a white swan.
> > >
> > >Box 2: is empty.
> > >
> > >Box 3: you are not allowed to open. Until, that
> is, you have found a way
> > to
> > >say _as a probability_ what should _probably_ be
> in the box.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Can I say "as a probabillity" what is NOT in the
> box?  "Probably" there
> > is NOT a swan of either color,
> > because in my experience ("probability") boxes
> don't contain swans. We
> > are left with just one swan, a white one.
> >
> >
> > There  is thus SOME evidence for the proposition
> that "all swans are
> > white" but not enough to either confirm or
> > disconfirm it as a generality.
>
>
> In the word of Eric Morcambe: "Rubbish!". Have a
> (logical) look at your smug
> and stupid last paragraph - a truly appalling piece
> piece of thought!
>
> Waken up!
>
> Donal
> >
> >
>
> Send instant messages to your online friends
> http://uk.messenger.yahoo.com
>
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