[lit-ideas] Re: Back to Popper (and further back to Hume)

  • From: Donal McEvoy <donalmcevoyuk@xxxxxxxxxxx>
  • To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Thu, 23 Nov 2006 16:30:11 +0000 (GMT)

--- John Wager <john.wager1@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> Donal McEvoy wrote:
> >You are given a proposition: "All swans are white".
> >
> >You are given three boxes to test the proposition.
> >
> >You open Box 1: in it is a white swan.
> >
> >Box 2: is empty.
> >
> >Box 3: you are not allowed to open. Until, that is, you have found a way
> to
> >say _as a probability_ what should _probably_ be in the box.
> >  
> >
> Can I say "as a probabillity" what is NOT in the box?  "Probably" there 
> is NOT a swan of either color,
> because in my experience ("probability") boxes don't contain swans. We 
> are left with just one swan, a white one.
> There  is thus SOME evidence for the proposition that "all swans are 
> white" but not enough to either confirm or
> disconfirm it as a generality.

In the word of Eric Morcambe: "Rubbish!". Have a (logical) look at your smug
and stupid last paragraph - a truly appalling piece piece of thought!

Waken up!


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