--- Eric Yost <eyost1132@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote: > Ahmadinajad only received 19% of the first vote - > second > place - with Rafsanjani receiving a full 2 points > more in an > election where the top 5 candidates went like this > in the polls: > > Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani 21% > Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 19% > Mehdi Karroubi 17% > Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf 13% > Mostafa Moeen 13% > > Now, when the runoffs happened between Rafsanjani > and > Ahmadinajad, it's a 40/60 split? Perfectly possible and within the bounds of normal electoral possibility. Also, according to the Brookings Institute, >>>>>>>>>> During the campaign, Ahmadinejad promised to challenge the dominant economic elite, open up opportunities for ordinary people, and root out corruption. His populist stance prompted many Iranians who had not voted in the first round to turn out to vote for him in the second?thus helping to explain the upset of his victory over former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, a man widely seen as the symbol of elite corruption. According to Bakhash, Ahmadinejad's outsider image is not entirely false, despite his close links to the regime. He and his core supporters feel marginalized by trends over the past decade, especially Western-style political reform, economic and cultural liberalization, and the rise of Westernized technocrats into positions of authority. They resent not only the reform movement, but also their own conservative colleagues who they feel have compromised on key tenets of the revolution. For them, it is a mark of pride to refer to themselves as "fundamentalists"?which, in Persian, can also mean "people of principle." Semati offered a similar analysis of the election. Ahmadinejad is a true believer?honest, pious, and not corrupt, with a reputation for quiet efficiency as mayor of Tehran. While the more sinister rumors about his past career in the Revolutionary Guards appear to be untrue, he is deeply committed to the Islamic Republic. Semati agreed that Ahmadinejad's vocal opposition to corruption (and Rafsanjani's so-called "oil mafia") played a key role in his victory. Ahmadinejad succeeded in mobilizing three key constituencies behind him: the rural masses, the urban poor, and religious conservatives. His victory shows that the use of neighborhood mosques and religious associations are still an effective means of political mobilization. The reform movement has retained the support of the educated middle class, but has failed to expand its appeal beyond this core constituency. Overall, Semati said, the election showed that the tendencies of the Iranian electorate have not changed. Conservatives have the support of no more than 35 percent of the population, including a core conservative bloc of 15 percent or so. The majority still supports reform in general: perhaps 45-50 percent voted for changing the status quo in some way, while another 15 percent boycotted the election. Meanwhile, the fundamental cleavages in Iranian politics and society?between state and society, between elites and masses, and among generations?also have not changed. While the socioeconomic elite may value political freedoms, the masses are exhausted with politics and care more about issues of economic security. The generation gap is more complex than is generally recognized, cutting not only across the public but also across the ruling elites. Ahmadinejad represents the new generation of conservatives, whose rise to power will be a defining feature of his presidency. <<<<<<<<<<< http://www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/events/20050628.htm That's right out of > the > beetles tune, "I get by with a little help from my > friends." > like Bush in 2000 Judy Evans, Cardiff ___________________________________________________________ All new Yahoo! Mail "The new Interface is stunning in its simplicity and ease of use." - PC Magazine http://uk.docs.yahoo.com/nowyoucan.html ------------------------------------------------------------------ To change your Lit-Ideas settings (subscribe/unsub, vacation on/off, digest on/off), visit www.andreas.com/faq-lit-ideas.html