[lit-ideas] Re: America Bleeding
- From: John McCreery <mccreery@xxxxxxx>
- To: lit-ideas@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 1 Nov 2004 11:00:41 +0900
Julie,
Check out the following at daily Kos.
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Polling Open Thread III (Sun-Mon Edition)
by DemFromCT
Sun Oct 31st, 2004 at 22:45:16 GMT
LV Two-way Tracking polls are here (Zogby and WMUR NH state trackers
are lower on the page):
Bush Kerry
Zogby 48 48 Sunday
TIPP 47 42 Sunday
Rasmussen 48.1 47.1 Sunday
WaPo 48 48 Sunday
Fox 46 47 Sunday
The tracking polls will be updated throughout the day. Here's an
excellent analysis of the Zogby state trackers by Alan Abramowitz,
pointing out that the movement in all the state polls suggest they're
all showing sampling error noise and are too close to call from Zogby
alone.
The average correlation in the day-to-day movements between each state
and the other nine states ranges from -.16 for Michigan to .02 for
Pennsylvania. The average correlation across all 10 states is -.08.
Since October 24 the mean shift in the margin between Kerry and Bush
across the ten states has been exactly zero. In the past 2 days, the
mean shift has been 0.2 points toward Kerry.
Conclusion--there is nothing going on here. The day-to-day shifts in
the Zogby state tracking polls, like the day-to-day shifts in the
national tracking polls are basically random.
Nonetheless, there is comforting news in the Zogby numbers here from
today.
Late Sunday, there was a Pew Poll showing no effect from the Bin Laden
tape (now CW, btw) and a K46-B45 RV, B48-K45 LV spread (with allocation
of undecideds by Pew special sauce). CBS/NY Times has Bush 49-46 (LV).
The NBC/WSJ poll shows Bush 48 Kerry 47 Nader 1 LV (and no effect from
the Bin laden tape) - no link yet. Gallup comes in at 49-49.
Once again, that doesn't mean the polls suck. It means all the polls
show tight races, Bush is below 50 (usually at 48) and that a GOTV
turnout win for Kerry is beyond polling's ability to predict.
General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (43 comments, 43 new)
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