Germany has had many cases of corona virus, from some reason a much lower
mortality rate than Italy or Spain. In Germany the mortality rate is
reported be below 1 %.
On Sun, Apr 5, 2020 at 5:02 AM Lawrence Helm <lawrencehelm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
On my smart phone just now appeared: “Berlin district mayor defends
deliberate coronavirus infection. Berlin District Mayor Stephan von Dassel
defended his decision to ‘almost deliberately’ get infected with the
coronavirus. . . ‘I was ill longer than I thought. . . and thought I’ll be
a bit sick for three days and then I’ll be immune – I can’t catch it and
won’t pass it on to anyone, but it was a lot worse than I imagined . . .”
This crossed my mind as well, but I rejected the idea at once. I try my
best to avoid ordinary flu and have no interest in acquiring something
comparable just to become immunity. If I catch it, so be it, but I’m
definitely not interested in volunteering.
In the April 2, 2020 issue of the *London Review of Books *is an article
entitled “Too early or too late?subtitled “David Runciman on political
timing and the pandemic.” Runciman writes, “only one politician has
actually cited the actions of the mayor from *Jaws* as a model for crisis
management, and it isn’t Trump. Boris Johnson used to tease audiences by
suggesting that ‘the real hero of *Jaws* was the mayor, a wonderful
politician. A gigantic fish is eating all his constituents and he decides
to keep the beaches open.’ Usually Johnson would end his riff by
admitting: ‘OK, in that instance he was wrong. But in principle we need
more politicians like the mayor.’”
Perhaps it isn’t quite what Boris Johnson believes, but after reading of
all the people thrown out of work, threats of impoverishment, even
starvation, it occurred to me to wonder whether the approach that seems to
be adopted almost world-wide, that of staying home, might in the long run
kill more people than the virus. After all, the gigantic fish didn’t
actually eat *all* of the mayor’s constituents. Anticipating that not
working will kill more people in the long run, we could assume that the
Covid-19 will be comparable to ordinary flu. People die from that is well;
so let’s individual stay home if we need to, otherwise work, work, work.
For if we run out of food because farmers, middlemen, and sales people are
staying home and the hand-to-mouth people start dying off at a faster rate
than Covid-19 victims are now, a few months from now Boris Johnson (if that
is what he has been worried about) may seem prescient – or would so seem if
he hadn’t backed away from anything that extreme.”
However, the “assumption” in the preceding paragraph may be wrong. The
Covid-19 may be much worse than ordinary flu . . . at least a blog entry,
also included in April 2, 2020 issue of the LRB, and entitled “Quaresima,
Thomas Jones reports from Orvieto” seems to suggest that it is. His
article is a list of days, beginning “Fifteen days ago: 2706 people in
Italy had at this point tested positive for SarsCoV-2; there were 443 new
cases; 276 had recovered; 107 were dead. . . “ He then describes whatever
was going on 15 days ago.
Jones article ends “Today: 33,190 positive; 4480 new cases; 4440
recovered; 3405 dead. This issue of the LRB goes to press on Thursday, 19
March . . . This issue is dated 2 April, two weeks from now. The day after
that, in theory, schools in Italy are set to reopen. But everyone knows
that won’t happen. . . .”
Jones article is pessimistic. We should sequester ourselves as he and his
son are doing because people are dying out there and the risk is high that
if we go out ‘there,’ that we will die too. 3405 dead out of 33,190 that
tested positive is a little over 10%. We have all heard that Italy has had
a higher rate of deaths than any other nation. But the Covid-19 is a new
phenomenon. How can we be sure that our nation won’t have percentages as
high as those being reported from Italy?
It may be that the next wave of Covid-19 in Italy may kill a lower
percentage of victims, but would we want to follow the advice of a
“hypothetical mayor of *Jaws*” on the basis of such an assumption?
My smart phone just informed me that in Germany they are considering
testing everyone to get better statistics; which makes good sense since we
have been told that some people get it and barely have any symptoms at
all. If such cases are entered into the statistics then the death rate
“might” end up comparable to that of ordinary flu.
Lawrence
