[LRFlex] Speculation on Leica's future.
- From: David Young <dnr@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- To: leicareflex@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Thu, 24 Feb 2005 07:47:42 -0800
Good Mornin' Gary!
U said:
I agree with most of your views you pointed out
regarding Leica and what if any future they may have.
But I want to mention though, a point no one has
brought up about the possible investors Leica may have
to bring the other foot out of the grave.
There are several problems with this scenario. First, is that Leica has
already been there and Hermes was their knight in shining armour.
Although companies that have lost half their value in a single years have
survived and later prospered; most, who reach this position, do not.
If Leica is to survive, they will most likely have to do it on their own.
And this will mean a radical restructuring of their lineup, to increase
sales and lower costs. I see several possibilities, though through typical
Teutonic stubbornness, I don't believe that any of them will happen.
1 - abandon or continue sales of Panasonic digis - a decision based on the
profitability of the venture.... something nobody outside the firm can know
- so there's no point in our speculating. And remember, they're getting
design fees and royalties from Panasonic, which might cease were they to
stop distributing Leica branded Panasonic cameras. The decision might not
be so simple!
2 - discontinue the manufacture of R bodies... at least until the backlog
of bodies is sold. - which could be a long time! (I believe that this has
already been done!)
3 - manufacture R lenses in mounts for brands N & C. It is true that very
few people would buy such lenses, but look at it this way. Leica is
selling (as near as I can tell) around 50,000 lenses a year. Nikon & Canon
each build about 100,000 lenses per month! If 1% of Nikon buyers buy one
Leica lens, that's an additional 12,000 lenses per year. If this happens
in both Nikon and Canon, Leica will add nearly 50% of their annual
production. Most likely enough to make them profitable.
That sort of quantity could be sold in Japan alone, where Leica still
enjoys phenomenal success.
4 - shift all lens production to Japan. Kyocera is the only firm who has
shown they can meet Leica's build quality requirements, and they can do it
cheaper than Leica. This would greatly help Leica's bottom line. However,
if you were Kyocera's management, would you undertake extensive re-tooling
to make a product for a desperate firm, with few sales, who is quite likely
not going to pay you?
5 - shift all lens production to Cosina. Build quality would be good, but
not to current standards. Would die hard Leica fans purchase such lenses at
near Leica prices? Or would they simply buy Voigtlander? And Cosina would
have the same concerns as Kyocera.
6 - Re-introduce the CL, with M7 style metering and shutter automation,
built by Cosina or Panasonic. Something, anything, to get a lower price
M-mount camera out there, to help increase the customer base for M-mount
lenses.
7 - Introduce a low-cost, entry level body (Built by Cosina?) that takes
R-lenses, again to expand the customer base. This would only work if the
lenses were also lowered in price by Japanese (or other Asian) manufacturing.
Before you scoff at these last two, consider the old days, when Nikon was
the top line, and Nikkorex (Nikorex in Europe) was the cheaper line. Both
took Nikkor lenses. It was a very successful marketing strategy.
So, both the new CL (CLE?) and 'R' series cameras would require new
names... for the reflex, perhaps the resurrection of the Leicaflex name?
Cosina makes a very nice Bessaflex manual focus SLR that could easily be
adapted to R-mount and sold for US$399. And Cosina is selling a plastic
body K-mount, aperture priority, manual focus Voigtlander that currently
sells for US $225 including a so-so zoom lens! It has a 1/3000th top speed
and 1/125th flash sync! Surely, Cosina could build them an R-mount version
that would sell for US$399 as a body only.
Such cameras would not be world beaters, but combined with lower cost
lenses, made wherever, they might expand Leica's base enough to survive as
a niche player with manual focus cameras.
8 - in the extreme, the other alternative is to continue all current lines,
as they are, but shift all manufacturing to Vietnam. Now, before you all
scoff, I bought Rose a Pentax AF-SLR and the lenses are made in
Vietnam. The build quality and optical quality are very good! With German
QC, this is actually a do-able tactic; and would lower costs by around 80%!
You mentioned that no Japanese brand would be
interested though you did mention Cosina and
Panasonic.
Cosina and Matsushita (Panasonic) could have an interest in Leica. Cosina
*might* be interested in the cameras, but would most likely be interested
in the lens design team, with all manufacturing shifted to Cosina's plant
in Nippon. Panasonic would be interested for the brand name and lens design
team, and would most likely scrap all manufacturing capability.
I stated most major Japanese maker would want Leica. Not Nikon, for I
understand that they are in some financial difficulties themselves, having
been successfully hammered in the biz by Canon.
And not Canon, as they're riding at the top of the heap just now. Why would
they want to spend a bundle to buy a limited production firm with a very
limited market? The Japanese are, and always have been, about
tonnage. Mass manufacturing and distribution to bring the per unit cost down.
Only Cosina has shown any interest in small quantity runs of specialty
items... and then only because of the personal interests of Mr. Kobayashi -
Cosina's owner. (I know of two Cosina items where the production runs were
5 units! This, however, is extremely rare, even for Cosina!)
Has anyone thought that with the recent
release of the F6 and future release of the SP, Nikon
is still very well interested in providing film users
with the best possible equipment? Albeit the new SP is
more of a collectors item with an exuberent price tag
(similiar to Leica Anniversary Titanium perhaps?).
The F6, I suspect, was produced only because the design was undertaken some
years ago, when it was thought that film camera sales would not die so
soon. It will undoubtedly be continued as long as possible, but I do not
see an F7 on the horizon. :(
I have heard rumours that Nikon has already stopped production of non-SLR
film cameras. Other rumours say Canon has or will do likewise. Pentax
announced the cessation of all film camera production last summer, only to
reverse themselves in the fall. What the future will bring, I don't know.
The SP is, indeed, a collector's market item and there is no collectors
market for Japanese produced Leicas. I cannot see this happening.
But if they do so, I can only see them furthering the
M line of cameras and lenses; which possibly may spark
more interest in making the S rangfinders in greater
numbers and in new variations. They probably would
not continue with the R series bodies (unfortunately),
but they may keep the R lens as an alternative Manual
Focus F mount line.
I wish I could see that happening... but for the reasons above, I don't.
I too will continue to use M and R equipment for as
long as I can access them. I can only hope the few
qualified technicians will continue to perform their
magic on restoring these cameras for decades to come
as my Leica's will definitely last longer than I.
The length of time service will be available for our Leica's will depend on
what happens to the currently available parts. When Leica went out of SM
camera parts, Kindermann, in Toronto, Canada, bought the lot. They might
(notice the "might") do it again.
If they do, then they become the central parts source. This has made them
a lot of money in service, over the years, so it is conceivable they'd try
to do it again.
If they, or someone like them, does not step up to the plate, then it will
become very difficult for any independent serviceman to find parts, other
than through parts bodies - always a possibility.
Maybe I've had a wee bit too much coffee this
morning...
Or, perhaps, not enough?
Just my two (maybe three) cents worth.
Cheers!
----------
David Young, | égalité, liberté,
Victoria, CANADA | fraternité et Beaujolais.
Personal Web-site at:
http://www.horizon.bc.ca/~dnr
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