[harg] COLD FRONT UPDATE #1 - Severe Weather Potential late tonight

  • From: Darrell Davis KT4WX <kt4wx@xxxxxxxx>
  • To: harg@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  • Date: Sat, 15 Dec 2007 06:00:10 -0500

*Ladies and Gentlemen

Early tomorrow morning we have the potential for severe weather. On the way to our area right now is a cold front and ahead of it is an old warm from boundary. The warm front boundary will move north today and we will have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. However the "real action" will be with the cold front to move through our area early Sunday morning. After the front passes temperatures will turn much cooler and conditions will dry out and the winds. Just ahead of the front will develop a squall line of thunderstorms. This is what has the potential for severe weather.

The following below is the Hazardous Weather Outlook. The National Weather Service is advising the SKYWARN Spotters may need to activate late tonight or early tomorrow.

Hardee County Emergency Management will be participating in a conference call at 1500 today. I will have more information for you following that call. Keep your eyes to the sky and have your radio on standby early tomorrow for any possible Hardee County SKYWARN nets that may need to be held.

BTW - Do not forget about SKYWARN training on January 14, 2008. Let me know if you plan on attending.

73
Darrell Davis KT4WX
Emergency Coordinator - Hardee County ARES

000
FLUS42 KTBW 151008
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
508 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-151600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
508 AM EST SAT DEC 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA COMBINED
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE NATURE
COAST. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL
SUPPORT A DEVELOPING SQUALL LINE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THIS SQUALL LINE IS THEN EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NATURE COAST
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN NEARING THE BAY
AREA BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM...AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN 8 AM AND
NOON ON SUNDAY.

CURRENT DATA INDICATES THE RISK FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE OVERNIGHT AS
LOW AND MID LEVEL JET STREAKS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THESE INCREASING WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF OLGA BEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

AT THE PRESENT TIME THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
OVER THE NATURE COAST FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING AND BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 TO 7 FEET OVERNIGHT...THEN
WINDS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FEET WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THESE INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS AND ALL SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE AFFECTING
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AND MARINE WATERSPOUTS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
SEAS IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS ON THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
MAY WANT TO POSTPONE TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF...RIP
CURRENTS...AND LARGE BREAKING WAVE ACTION ALONG THE COAST WITH SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY...AND
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO ANY RAPID
RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE NATURE COAST AND LOWER TO MID 40S
ELSEWHERE. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL YIELD LOW WIND CHILLS AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. RESIDENTS
SHOULD PLAN ON BRINGING TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS SUNDAY
EVENING. REMEMBER TO BRING PETS INDOORS AS WELL. RESIDENTS PLANNING
TO BE OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOULD PREPARE
ACCORDINGLY. BRING SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING...AS THEY WILL INSULATE
YOU BETTER THAN A SINGLE COAT OR JACKET. CHILDREN WAITING FOR BUSES
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRESSED IN WARM CLOTHING TO PROTECT THEM
FROM THE COLD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

$$

MCMICHAEL



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