Wynn,my politics are right wing as well in a general sense but I avoid all
these conspiracy theories on both sides of the political divide.I do sense we
are coming to an imminent financial crisis in North America because of the
collision of two burgeoning problems.The first is inflation caused by the
overprinting of money coupled with profligate spending by our government.It is
not temporary ;it is deep seated.The second involves the evolution to clean
energy .It is happening too fast .Oil exploration is down and companies are no
longer pouring money in to oil and gas infrastructure.The number of refineries
is down dramatically.The world runs on diesel fuel but much less of it is being
produced.I foresee an energy crisis which none of us can imagine.The electric
grid is already fragile and will be unable to meet the growing demand caused by
electric vehicles.I see the disruption of supply chains increasing dramatically
over the next several years.When we have a lack of supply of goods and an
inability to pay for what is left we have social instability.I am afraid that
our comfortable life over the past 50 years is about to be drastically
interrupted.It’s not a pretty picture but a realistic one.I hope you have
opened the floodgates of debate,Bryan
Sent from my iPad
On Oct 25, 2022, at 5:13 PM, dsp.ea.large.messages@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
From: Wynn Payne <wynn.payne@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: October 25, 2022 6:10 PM
To: DSP.EA.Large.Messages@xxxxxxxxx
Subject: Fwd: Some perspective...
Hi fellow Delta Sigs
As many of you know my political stance leans to the right while a
significant part of our group leans the other way.
We are a considerate group as towhen talking politics.
Those on the significant left think those on the right are paranoid.
I just got a forward of an investment letter. This isn't a political letter
but a note for those investing in the stock market.
The opening shows a strong anti democrat comment commenting on a Presidential
order. Government surveillance
I think the comment supports my right wing fears.
I would be interested in hearing from others, again with the same courtesy
that has been used in the past.
Wynn
Subject: Fwd: Some perspective...
To:
fyi
-
Seeing your savings decline is an awful feeling, but history can tell you
what to do right now.
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MARKET TRENDS
Insights From the Middle of a Bear Market
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
A friend recently came into a little bit of money. It wasn't a life-changing
amount, but it was badly needed, as she had very little in savings.
She used a financial advisor that her siblings had been using for years and
put the money to work at the end of the summer.
If you've been following the markets, you know what happened next. From
August 16 to October 13, the S&P 500 slid 19%. It's recovered a little since
then but is still down 12% from that date.
Perspectives on a Bear Market
So my friend, who was excited about having a small nest egg for the first
time in her life, is suddenly down double digits in a very short period of
time. Needless to say, she is concerned.
I explained to her that the market took a big tumble right at the time the
money was invested. It was bad luck and not anything that the advisor did
wrong.
More importantly, I reminded her, this is money she plans on keeping invested
for at least the next 10 years, maybe longer - and that markets go up over
the long term.
I also pointed out that while it's certainly frustrating to be down more than
10% in the short term, she still invested her money 10% lower than she would
have had she invested at the beginning of the year.
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I offered some perspective.
Since 1929, stocks have risen roughly 78% of the time. Nearly 4 out of every
5 days. Of course, in a bear market, it can be the opposite, with lots of bad
days strung together. But if you're invested for even a few years, the odds
are you're going to make money.
Since 1945, we've experienced a bear market roughly once every 5 1/2 years.
In other words, bear markets happen. Though not pleasant, they're not
exceptional. If you invest long enough, you will endure multiple bear markets.
Bear markets last an average of 9 1/2 months and drop an average of 36%.
That's a big decline in a short period of time. Scary stuff. But they don't
last forever... And even the bear markets that are particularly bad actually
recover fairly quickly.
On the other hand, the average bull market lasts for nearly three years and
rises 102%.
So if you invested and stocks immediately went into an average bear market,
followed by an average bull market, you'd be up a little more than 29% in
just over 3 1/2 years, or an average of 8% per year, which is a decent return.
Of course, a bear could be worse than average and a bull could be less than
average. But you can clearly see that nearly a century of market activity
shows that regardless of short-term downward swings, you want to be in the
market so that you are invested when things inevitably reverse and move
higher - like they always have.
Seeing your savings decline is an awful feeling, whether you're a new
investor or an experienced one... whether your account is worth seven figures
or three figures. No one wants to lose money.
But if you ignore the short-term volatility and stay in the market, history
proves that you won't.
Good investing,
Marc
P.S. Tired of the ups and downs of the stock market?
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earn a contractually obligated 110% gain in less than five years...
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