[chilefuturo] Re: [chilefuturo] Re: [chilefuturo] Re: [chilefuturo] Fwd: Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall? - John Mauldin's Outside the Box E-Letter
- From: Iván Alarcón <ivanovich100@xxxxxxxxx>
- To: chilefuturo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 14 Mar 2012 16:12:31 -0300
Muy de acuerdo con P. leí lo de Ferguson y claramente su análisis está
basado en premisas lutero-puritanas pertenecientes a la cultura
Anglosajona, para complementar la bibliografía de P., sugiero leer a Renato
Espoz, filósofo chileno, con varios libros a su haber.
Saludos,
Iván
El 12 de marzo de 2012 00:21, PLandsberger
<pedro.landsberger@xxxxxxxxx>escribió:
> **
> El atículo de Ferguson puede ser muy entretenido y provocador, y puede
> ayudar a primera vista a manejar y entender procesos históricos complejos;
> pero lamentablemente descansa sobre una larga lista de supuestos
> histórico-ideológicos que de partida justifican el desarrollo que tuvo la
> Historia hasta el día de hoy y por esa vía justifican también el
> statu-quo. Es decir, justifican el sistema actual. Pues todas esas
> historias sobre las virtudes y supremacías de la cultura
> europea/norteamericana en el fondo son unos mitos cuidadosamente cultivados
> por los propios interesados y que nosotros en gran medida reproducimos
> porque nacimos, crecimos y vivimos dentro de esa cultura. Esto que afirmo
> lo he reflexionado después de largas lecturas de autores que no aparecen en
> las listas de best-sellers ni en los comentarios de libros de los días
> domingos. Y si ferguson basa su análisis en este tipo de premisas,
> necesariamente los resultados a los que llegará y las tesis y alternativas
> que visualizará serán erradas, y de poco nos servirán. Pienso que una
> buena selección de autores que destruyen gran parte de las premisas del
> artículo de Ferguson son los siguientes:
>
> 1) J.M. Blaut, geográfo/historiador de EEUU que estudió a fondo el
> problema ideológico y cultural de Europa/USA en el desarrollo de la
> historiografía mundial. Su principal obra: "The Colonizer's Model of the
> World: Geographical Diffusionism and Eurocentric History" (adjunto
> Comentarios al respecto)
>
> 2) Mike Davis; varias obras, varias en castellano; la más atingente es *Late
> Victorian Holocausts, El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World*(New
> York: Verso, 2001). Hay edición en castellano.
>
> 3) Alfred Crosby; varias obras; la principal: "Imperialismo Ecológico -
> La expansión biológica de Europa, 900-1900".
>
> 4) John Bellamy Foster; varias obras y artículos, muchos en castellano.
> (Estoy adjuntando algunos)
>
> 5) Sidney W. Mintz: "Sweetness AND POWER". Estudia a fondo la fenomenal
> importancia del azúcar tanto en los afanes coloniales de las potencias
> europeas, como en la vital alimentación del ejército de obreros que
> permitió que despegara la revolución industrial en Europa. (Adjunto algunas
> reseñas y menciones. Además, el libro electrónico puede -al parecer-
> bajarse de varios sitios web)
>
> 6) Domenico Losurdo; filósofo italiano con varios textos de interés, pero
> el que viene a cuento ahora es "Contrahistoria del Liberalismo" (editorial
> El Viejo Topo, 2005) donde este señor "indaga en las contradicciones y las
> zonas de sombra que corrientemente eluden los estudiosos" poniendo de
> manifiesto la dificultad de conciliar la defensa teórica que hacen ciertos
> reconocidos personeros del pensamiento y el gobierno liberal moderno
> europeo/norteamericano de la libertad del individuo con la realidad de las
> relaciones políticas y sociales. (Adjunto reseña).
>
> Saludos
>
> P.
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> *From:* Jaime Aravena <jaravena@xxxxxxxxx>
> *To:* chilefuturo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Sent:* Saturday, March 10, 2012 1:59 PM
> *Subject:* [chilefuturo] Re: [chilefuturo] Fwd: Western Civilisation:
> Decline – or Fall? - John Mauldin's Outside the Box E-Letter
>
> hay 6 videos en internet que son notables (en ingles con subtitulos en
> ingles)
>
> *From:* Carlos Contreras <clubcientifico@xxxxxxxxx>
> *To:* chilefuturo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> *Sent:* Tuesday, March 6, 2012 9:49 AM
> *Subject:* [chilefuturo] Fwd: Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall? -
> John Mauldin's Outside the Box E-Letter
> **
> en inglés, lo bueno viene en el artículo de Fergusson. Ahora me ha
> interesado la historia. No se sisirve para estimar el futuro pero es
> entretenida a mi edad.****saludos****
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------**From: *John Mauldin and
> InvestorsInsight* <wave@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>**Date: 2012/3/6**Subject:
> Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall? - John Mauldin's Outside the Box
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> Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?
> John Mauldin | March 5, 2012
> I had my nose in Niall Ferguson's newest book, *Civilization: The West
> and the
> Rest,*<http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1594203059/frontlinethou-20>at
> every possible moment during my recent trip to Hong Kong and Singapore.
> It's powerful and very, very timely, and I strongly recommend it. To help
> get the word out, I asked Niall for a short, somewhat personal piece on the
> thinking behind the book – in other words, what moved him to write it?
> What you're going to find in the piece below for this week's Outside the
> Box, as well as in the book, is an author who is very concerned about our
> civilization's prospects – and unafraid to say so. I mean, the last time I
> looked, "saving the world" had gone distinctly out of fashion. And then,
> and then, we all grow up and get pretty focused and incremental about
> things: if we can just address the problem or three right in front of us,
> we're reasonably content.
> But leave it to a Harvard history professor to break out of the box and go
> tilting at the big picture. And when you think of it, we're all pretty
> concerned at this point, however we frame the issues. Everywhere we turn,
> it seems, we find the forces of polarization and dissolution gnawing at our
> social fabric, and Yeats' fateful line about the center not holding starts
> to feel uncomfortably prophetic. Maybe it's about time we all thought
> bigger and worked harder at getting along, while we still can.
> Niall turns to a notion put forth by the social scientist Charles Murray,
> who has called for a "civic great awakening" – a return to the original
> values of the American republic. We could do worse.
> I want to congratulate Niall and Ayaan on their new baby, Thomas Hirsi
> Ferguson! May he grow up in a world that is flourishing.
> Your holding out hope for our future analyst,
> John Mauldin, Editor
> Outside the Box
> JohnMauldin@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> Western Civilisation: Decline – or Fall?
> By Niall Ferguson
> As a freshman historian at Oxford back in 1982, I was required to read
> Edward Gibbon's *Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire*. Ever since that
> first encounter with the greatest of all historians, I have pondered the
> question whether or not the modern West could succumb to degenerative
> tendencies similar to the ones described so vividly by Gibbon. My most
> recent book, *Civilization: The West and the Rest *attempts an answer to
> that question.
> The good news is that I do not believe that Western civilization is in
> some kind of gradual, inexorable decline. In my view, civilizations do not
> rise, fall, and then gently decline, as inevitably and predictably as the
> four seasons or the seven ages of man. History is not one smooth, parabolic
> curve after another. The bad news is that its shape is more like an
> exponentially steepening slope that quite suddenly drops off like a cliff.
> To see what I mean, pay a visit to Machu Picchu, the lost city of the
> Incas. In 1530 the Incas were the masters of all they surveyed from the
> heights of the Peruvian Andes. Within less than a decade, foreign invaders
> with horses, gunpowder, and lethal diseases had smashed their empire to
> smithereens. Today tourists gawp at the ruins that remain.
> The notion that civilizations do not decline but collapse inspired the
> anthropologist Jared Diamond's 2005 book, *Collapse. *But Diamond
> focused, fashionably, on man-made environmental disasters as the causes of
> collapse. As a historian, I take a broader view. My point is that when you
> look back on the history of past civilizations, a striking feature is the
> speed with which most of them collapsed, regardless of the cause.
> The Roman Empire did not decline and fall over a millennium, as Gibbon's
> monumental work seemed to suggest. It collapsed within a few decades in the
> early fifth century, tipped over the edge of chaos by barbarian invaders
> and internal divisions. In the space of a generation, the vast imperial
> metropolis of Rome fell into disrepair, the aqueducts broken, the splendid
> marketplaces deserted. The Ming dynasty's rule in China also fell apart
> with extraordinary speed in the mid–17th century, succumbing to internal
> strife and external invasion. Again, the transition from equipoise to
> anarchy took little more than a decade.
> A more recent and familiar example of precipitous decline is, of course,
> the collapse of the Soviet Union. And, if you still doubt that collapse
> comes suddenly, just think of how the postcolonial dictatorships of North
> Africa and the Middle East imploded this year. Twelve months ago, Messrs.
> Ben Ali, Mubarak, and Gaddafi seemed secure in their gaudy palaces. Here
> yesterday, gone today.
> What all these collapsed powers have in common is that the complex social
> systems that underpinned them suddenly ceased to function. One minute
> rulers had legitimacy in the eyes of their people; the next they did not.
> This process is a familiar one to students of financial markets. Even as I
> write, it is far from clear that the European Monetary Union can be
> salvaged from the dramatic collapse of confidence in the fiscal policies of
> its peripheral member states. In the realm of power, as in the domain of
> the bond vigilantes, you are fine until you are not fine—and when you're
> not fine, you are suddenly in a terrifying death spiral.
> The West first surged ahead of the Rest after about 1500 thanks to a
> series of institutional innovations that (to entice younger readers) I call
> the "killer applications":
> 1.*Competition. *Europe was politically fragmented into multiple
> monarchies and republics, which were in turn internally divided into
> competing corporate entities, among them the ancestors of modern business
> corporations.
> 2.*The Scientific Revolution. *All the major 17th-century breakthroughs
> in mathematics, astronomy, physics, chemistry, and biology happened in
> Western Europe.
> 3.*The Rule of Law and Representative Government. *An optimal system of
> social and political order emerged in the English-speaking world, based on
> private-property rights and the representation of property owners in
> elected legislatures.
> 4.*Modern Medicine. *Nearly all the major 19th- and 20th-century
> breakthroughs in health care were made by Western Europeans and North
> Americans.
> 5.*The Consumer Society. *The Industrial Revolution took place where
> there was both a supply of productivity-enhancing technologies and a demand
> for more, better, and cheaper goods, beginning with cotton garments.
> 6.*The Work Ethic. *Westerners were the first people in the world to
> combine more extensive and intensive labor with higher savings rates,
> permitting sustained capital accumulation.
> For hundreds of years, these killer apps were essentially monopolized by
> Europeans and their cousins who settled in North America and Australasia.
> They are the best explanation for what economic historians call "the great
> divergence": the astonishing gap that arose between Western standards of
> living and those in the rest of the world. In 1500 the average Chinese was
> richer than the average North American. By the late 1970s the American was
> more than 20 times richer than the Chinese.
> Westerners not only grew richer than "Resterners." They grew taller,
> healthier, and longer-lived. They also grew more powerful. By the early
> 20th century, just a dozen Western empires—including the United
> States—controlled 58 percent of the world's land surface and population,
> and a staggering 74 percent of the global economy.
> Beginning with Japan, however, one non-Western society after another has
> worked out that these apps can be downloaded and installed in non-Western
> operating systems. That explains about half the catching up that we have
> witnessed in our lifetimes, especially since the onset of economic reforms
> in China in 1978.
> I am not one of those people filled with angst at the thought of a world
> in which the average American is no longer vastly richer than the average
> Chinese. I welcome the escape of hundreds of millions of Asians from
> poverty, not to mention the improvements we are seeing in South America and
> parts of Africa. But there is a second, more insidious cause of the "great
> reconvergence," which I do deplore—and that is the tendency of Western
> societies to delete their own killer apps.
> Who's got the work ethic now? The average South Korean works about 39
> percent more hours per week than the average American. The school year in
> South Korea is 220 days long, compared with 180 days in the U.S. And you do
> not have to spend too long at any major U.S. university to know which
> students really drive themselves: the Asians and Asian-Americans. The
> consumer society? 26 of the 30 biggest shopping malls in the world are now
> in emerging markets, mostly in Asia. Modern medicine? As a share of gross
> domestic product, the United States spends twice what Japan spends on
> health care and more than three times what China spends. Yet life
> expectancy in the U.S. has risen from 70 to 78 in the past 50 years,
> compared with leaps from 68 to 83 in Japan and from 43 to 73 in China.
> The rule of law? For a real eye-opener, take a look at the latest World
> Economic Forum (WEF) Executive Opinion Survey. On no fewer than 15 of 16
> different issues relating to property rights and governance, the United
> States fares worse than Hong Kong. Indeed, the U.S. makes the global top 20
> in only one area: investor protection. On every other count, its reputation
> is shockingly bad. The U.S. ranks 86th in the world for the costs imposed
> on business by organized crime, 50th for public trust in the ethics of
> politicians, 42nd for various forms of bribery, and 40th for standards of
> auditing and financial reporting.
> What about science? U.S.-based scientists continue to walk off with plenty
> of Nobel Prizes each year. But Nobel winners are old men. The future
> belongs not to them but to today's teenagers. Here is another striking
> statistic. Every three years the Organization of Economic Cooperation and
> Development's Program for International Student Assessment tests the
> educational attainment of 15-year-olds around the world. The latest data on
> "mathematical literacy" reveal that the gap between the world leaders—the
> students of Shanghai and Singapore—and their American counterparts is now
> as big as the gap between U.S. kids and teenagers in Albania and Tunisia.
> The late, lamented Steve Jobs convinced Americans that the future would be
> "Designed by Apple in California. Assembled in China." Yet statistics from
> the World Intellectual Property Organization show that already more patents
> originate in Japan than in the U.S., that South Korea overtook Germany to
> take third place in 2005, and that China has just overtaken Germany too.
> Finally, there's competition, the original killer app that sent the
> fragmented West down a completely different path from monolithic imperial
> China. The WEF has conducted a comprehensive Global Competitiveness survey
> every year since 1979. Since the current methodology was adopted in 2004,
> the United States' average competitiveness score has fallen from 5.82 to
> 5.43, one of the steepest declines among developed economies. China's
> score, meanwhile, has leapt up from 4.29 to 4.90.
> Not only is the U.S. less competitive abroad. Perhaps more disturbing is
> the decline of meaningful competition at home, as the social mobility of
> the postwar era has given way to an extraordinary social polarization. You
> do not have to be an Occupy Wall Street activist to believe that the
> American super-rich elite—the 1 percent that collects 20 percent of the
> income—has become dangerously divorced from the rest of society, especially
> from the underclass at the bottom of the income distribution.
> But if we are headed toward collapse, what will it look like? An upsurge
> in civil unrest and crime, as happened in the 1970s? A loss of faith on the
> part of investors and a sudden Greek-style leap in government borrowing
> costs? How about a spike of violence in the Middle East, from Iraq to
> Afghanistan, as insurgents capitalize on our troop withdrawals? Or a
> paralyzing cyberattack from the rising Asian superpower we complacently
> underrate?
> Is there anything we can do to prevent such disasters? Social scientist
> Charles Murray calls for a "civic great awakening"—a return to the original
> values of the American republic. He has a point. Far more than in Europe,
> most Americans remain instinctively loyal to the killer applications of
> Western ascendancy, from competition all the way through to the work ethic.
> They know the country has the right software. They just cannot understand
> why it is running so damn slowly.
> What we need to do is to delete the viruses that have crept into our
> system: the anticompetitive quasi monopolies that blight everything from
> banking to public education; the politically correct pseudosciences and
> soft subjects that deflect good students away from hard science; the
> lobbyists who subvert the rule of law for the sake of the special interests
> they represent—to say nothing of our crazily dysfunctional system of health
> care, our overleveraged personal finances, and our newfound unemployment
> ethic.
> Then we need to download the updates that are running more successfully in
> other countries, from Finland to New Zealand, from Denmark to Hong Kong,
> from Singapore to Sweden. And finally we need to reboot our whole system.
> Voters and politicians alike dare not postpone the big reboot. If what we
> are risking is not decline but downright collapse, then the time frame may
> even be tighter than one election cycle.
> Copyright 2012 John Mauldin. All Rights Reserved.
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