[Bristol-Birds] WEATHER CANCELS Shady Valley CBC for this year !
- From: "Wallace Coffey" <jwcoffey@xxxxxxxxxx>
- To: "Bristol-birds" <bristol-birds@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 30 Dec 2007 20:59:19 -0500
Rob Biller asked me to post an announcement tonight that the Shady Valley CBC,
scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 1, has been canceled for this year. It will not be
rescheduled.
The cancellation is due to expected rain, ice, snow and wind.
I talked at length with Rob and Ron Carrico by phone and I agree with the
decision.
This is a higher elevation count. The valley floor is at 2,800 feet which is
not all
that much of a problem but access to Shady Valley itself requires many of our
participants to travel steep, narrow, winding mountain roads.
Access via Holston Mountain from Bristol and points west requires passage
through
Low Gap from Sullivan Co. into Johnson Co. at 3,384 feet elevation. From
Elizabethton
and Johnson City and points south the road over Cross Mountain is 3,500 feet.
The forecast are for our region and do not fully reflect what might be expected
at the higher elevations. We simply
do not think that predawn travel and such is worth it and that we need to
expose ourselves to such risk for a CBC.
When we were younger we took far greater risks at Mount Rogers, Whitetop and
Roan Mnt but that is not now.
We learned how difficult and hazardous conditions can be when a few years ago
we pressed on under such
conditions and got hit with a day-long snow which reached 4 inches in depth by
noon. It was dangerous and
difficult. Even four-wheel drives were challenged. You never know when the
snowfall and icing may be far
worse than expected. And it is possible conditions finally turn out better
than expected. We simply have to
make a safe judgment.
Monday Night: A chance of rain after 1am, mixing with snow after 2 am.
Increasing clouds, with a low around 29. South wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west.
Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow
accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
New Year's Day: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a west
wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of
precipitation is 60%.
We considered trying to make the count up on Wednesday, the day after New Years
Day.
Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around
18. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy and
breezy, with a high near 24.
Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18.
Considering icing conditions on Monday night followed by snow and conditions
nearly as bad with windy conditions
on Wednesday, it just didn't seem worth it. Wednesday is not much better.
Thursday finds some of our birders out of the region and others back to work.
It is also the last day to conduct the
count.
We know there will be many different opinions about what should be done.
Nevertheless, the best and safest decision we can arrive at is to simply call
off the 2007 Shady Valley CBC and just
move on.
Hope you all understand.
Thanks to all of you who participated in the many counts over the region.
Happy New Years.....
Let's go birding.......
Wallace Coffey
Bristol, Tn
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