Hello,
Please let me know where can I read more about strategy tips.
Thanks
Moe
From: blindpoker-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx <blindpoker-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> On
Behalf Of Nenad Biresev
Sent: Friday, May 15, 2020 1:19 AM
To: blindpoker@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [blindpoker] how to play draws in poker
Hello,
I will here give you tips how to play draws in different situations and against
different opponent types. If you play your draws correctly, it can
significantly improve your winrate. I will split draws into few categories:
1) Straight draw with 4 outs, or so called gut shot. On the flop this draw has
around 18% to hit by the river, or 9% with next card.
On the flop, you should always fold such draw vs big size like 85% of pot size
and higher. The reason is because pot odds are bad, and when players bet so
large they usually have a strong hand and you don't hit straight often enough.
If they bet smaller, you can call it profitable only if
opponent is going to give up often on the turn by check folding. So the
profitability from this draw doesn't come so much from hitting the straight but
more by bluffing once opponent checks to you (in which case most opponents will
fold a lot so you should always bluff all your draws in such cases). If you
have on the flop or on the turn multiple opponents, always fold it because in
multiway pots players tend to bluff less, and will very often continue to bet
turn, so you will rarely get in a chance to bluff them once they check. If you
are HU, and you know that opponent is very aggressively betting turn, you will
also rarely get in the spot to bet once he checks turn. So as the conclusion,
the key factor weather you should defend your draw is if opponent is going to
give up often by check and folding on the following street. On the turn out of
position, you should always fold such draw because once opponent checks the
river you are out of position so you can't bluff him, and 9% chance to hit a
straight is not often enough to call.
2) Straight draw with 8 outs. With next community card, you hit straight with
17% chance, and from flop to river around 34%. The logic how to play this kind
of draw against bet is very similar to straight draw with 4 outs. The
difference is that even against aggressive opponent you can call this draw
profitable, because if you hit and opponent continues to bet, you will get paid
off very often, and if he gives up often on the turn or river you can win hands
when not hitting the straight by bluffing him. On the flop you can call against
any bet except overbet, and on the turn you can call in position against any
bet, and when out of position you should only call if you have also overcards.
3) Flush draws are having 9 outs and with one community card the chance to hit
is 18% and from flop to the river around 36%. You can play them similar as with
straight draws with 8 outs,
on the flop you call any bet except overbet, and on the turn you call in
position against any bet except overbet, and out of position, you call only
with strong flush draws or flush draws with overcards.
4) combo draws, meaning straight + flush outs, or pair + straight outs or pair
+ flush outs. These type of draws you should never fold on flop and never on
the turn even out of position, only against huge overbet it should be a fold as
pot odds are too bad.
Conclusion:
Profitability of weak draws depends on how aggressive opponent bets on the
following street. Once opponent checks to you, and loses initiative, you should
always bluff him with draw as it is very profitable bluff against nearly all
opponents. When you have stronger draw you can call it against any opponent
type except against big overbets.
Now, lets discuss when you should bluff raise draws. You should always bluff
raise your nut flush draws, or any flush draw with 2 overcards, or any pair
with flush draw. It is very profitable to raise because opponent will often
enough fold, and you will often hit strong hand. It doesn't matter how opponent
plays, if he folds too much profitability comes from those spots when opponent
folds, and if opponent calls too much, you he will pay you off very often once
you hit. If opponent reraises aggressively again he will have many bluffs and
your strong draw dominates his bluffs. This way you balance your raising range,
as you can have bluffs when you raise but you can have 2 pairs, sets and in
general strong hands. If you would only raise strong hands, opponents would
notice easily that you very rarely raise them, and good opponents would fold
weak hands once you raise them, but if you raise those draws, they can't know
if you bluff or not, and will pay you off much more often.
Now lets discuss how to play when you have option to check or bet.
Logic is similar as raising the draws. In general draws are more profitable to
play aggressively than to play passively because when you bet, opponent will
often fold and when he doesn't fold you will often hit.
We can split opponents into 3 groups.
1) Opponent that folds too much vs bet, lets say at least 50% of the time.
Against such opponent you should bluff a lot, with 50% pot size bet, and you
should bluff all your draws.
2) Opponent that raises very aggressive, 15% or more. In this case the
profitability of draws is less, as you will get often bad pot odds when you
face a raise, so you should check weak draws to see free card, and you should
bet only combo draws, and strong straight draws and flush draws, as when they
face a raise they can profitably call a raise.
3) If opponent doesn't raise aggressive but calls a lot, lets say calls 70% or
more often, then it depends how often opponent folds on the following streets.
if opponent folds a lot on the following street, it is still profitable to
bluff him on the current street, otherwise if opponent calls on all streets a
lot, you should check weak draws and bet strong draws because strong draws will
hit more often and this opponent type will pay you off very often.
Let me know if you have any questions or feedback.
If you would like to read more about strategy tips, let me know.
regards,
Nenad.
