Tomgram: Michael Klare, Tipping Points and the Question of Civilizational
Survival
By Michael Klare
Posted on October 8, 2015, Printed on October 9, 2015
http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176054/
In mid-August, TomDispatch's Michael Klare wrote presciently of the oncoming
global oil glut, the way it was driving the price of petroleum into the
"energy subbasement," and how such a financial "rout," if extended over the
next couple of years, might lead toward a new (and better) world of energy.
As it happens, the first good news of the sort Klare was imagining has since
come in. In a country where the price of gas at the pump now averages $2.29
a gallon (and in some places has dropped under $1.90), Big Oil has begun
cutting back on its devastating plans to extract every imaginable drop of
fossil fuel from the planet and burn it. Oil companies have also been
laying off employees by the tens of thousands and deep-sixing, at least for
now, plans to search for and exploit tar sands and other "tough oil"
deposits worldwide.
In that context, as September ended, after a disappointing six weeks of
drilling, Royal Dutch Shell cancelled "for the foreseeable future" its
search for oil and natural gas in the tempestuous but melting waters of the
Alaskan Arctic. This was no small thing and a great victory for an
environmental movement that had long fought to put obstacles in the way of
Shell's exploration plans. Green-lighted by the Obama administration to
drill in the Chukchi Sea this summer, Shell has over the last nine years
sunk more than $7 billion into its Arctic drilling project, so the decision
to close up shop was no small thing and offers a tiny ray of hope for what
activism can do when reality offers a modest helping hand.
As Klare makes clear today, when it comes to the burning of fossil fuels,
reality -- if only we bother to notice it -- is threatening to offer
something more like the back of its hand to us on this embattled planet of
ours. He offers a look at a future in which humanity, like various
increasingly endangered ecosystems including the Arctic, may be approaching
a "tipping point." Tom
Welcome to a New Planet
Climate Change "Tipping Points" and the Fate of the Earth
By Michael T. Klare
Not so long ago, it was science fiction. Now, it's hard science -- and that
should frighten us all. The latest reports from the prestigious and sober
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make increasingly
hair-raising reading, suggesting that the planet is approaching possible
moments of irreversible damage in a fashion and at a speed that had not been
anticipated.
Scientists have long worried that climate change will not continue to
advance in a "linear" fashion, with the planet getting a little bit hotter
most years. Instead, they fear, humanity could someday experience
"non-linear" climate shifts (also known as "singularities" or "tipping
points") after which there would be sudden and irreversible change of a
catastrophic nature. This was the premise of the 2004 climate-disaster film
The Day After Tomorrow. In that movie -- most notable for its vivid scenes
of a frozen-over New York City -- melting polar ice causes a disruption in
the North Atlantic Current, which in turn triggers a series of catastrophic
storms and disasters. At the time of its release, many knowledgeable
scientists derided the film's premise, insisting that the confluence of
events it portrayed was unlikely or simply impossible.
Fast forward 11 years and the prospect of such calamitous tipping points in
the North Atlantic or elsewhere no longer looks improbable. In fact,
climate scientists have begun to note early indicators of possible
catastrophes.
Take the disruption of the North Atlantic Current, the pivotal event in The
Day After Tomorrow. Essentially an extension of the Gulf Stream, that
deep-sea current carries relatively warm salty water from the South Atlantic
and the Caribbean to the northern reaches of the Atlantic. In the process,
it helps keep Europe warmer than it would otherwise be. Once its salty
water flows into sub-Arctic areas carried by this prolific stream, it gets
colder and heavier, sinks to lower depths, and starts a return trip to
warmer climes in the south where the whole process begins again.
So long as this "global conveyor belt" -- known to scientists as the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC -- keeps functioning,
the Gulf Stream will also continue to bring warmer waters to the eastern
United States and Europe. Should it be disrupted, however, the whole system
might break down, in which case the Euro-Atlantic climate could turn colder
and more storm-prone. Such a disruption might occur if the vast Greenland
ice sheet melts in a significant way, as indeed is already beginning to
happen today, pouring large quantities of salt-free fresh water into the
Atlantic Ocean. Because of its lighter weight, this newly introduced water
will remain close to the surface, preventing the submergence of salty water
from the south and so effectively shutting down the conveyor belt. Indeed,
exactly this process now seems to be underway.
By all accounts, 2015 is likely to wind up as the hottest year on record,
with large parts of the world suffering from severe heat waves and
wildfires. Despite all this, however, a stretch of the North Atlantic below
Iceland and Greenland is experiencing all-time cold temperatures, according
to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What explains this
anomaly? According to scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research and Pennsylvania State University, among other institutions,
the most likely explanation is the arrival in the area of cold water from
the Greenland ice sheet that is melting ever more rapidly thanks to climate
change. Because this meltwater starts out salt-free, it has remained near
the surface and so, as predicted, is slowing the northern advance of warmer
water from the North Atlantic Current.
So far, the AMOC has not suffered a dramatic shutdown, but it is slowing,
and scientists worry that a rapid increase in Greenland ice melt as the
Arctic continues to warm will pour ever more meltwater into the North
Atlantic, severely disrupting the conveyor system. That would, indeed,
constitute a major tipping point, with severe consequences for Europe and
eastern North America. Not only would Europe experience colder temperatures
on an otherwise warmer planet, but coastal North America could witness
higher sea levels than those predicted from climate change alone because the
Gulf Stream tends to pull sea water away from the eastern U.S. and push it
toward Europe. If it were to fail, rising sea levels could endanger cities
like New York and Boston. Indeed, scientists discovered that just such a
slowing of the AMOC helped produce a sea-level rise of four inches from New
York to Newfoundland in 2009 and 2010.
In its 2014 report on the status of global warming, the IPCC indicated that
the likelihood of the AMOC collapsing before the end of this century remains
relatively low. But some studies suggest that the conveyor system is
already 15%-20% below normal with Greenland's melting still in an early
stage. Once that process switches into high gear, the potential for the
sort of breakdown that was once science fiction starts to look all too real.
Tipping Points on the Horizon
In a 2014 report, "Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability," Working Group II
of the IPCC identified three other natural systems already showing
early-warning signs of catastrophic tipping points: the Arctic, coral reefs,
and the Amazonian forest. All three, the report suggested, could experience
massive and irreversible changes with profound implications for human
societies.
The Arctic comes in for particular scrutiny because it has experienced more
warming than any other region on the planet and because the impact of
climate change there is already so obvious. As the report put it, "For the
Arctic region, new evidence indicates a biophysical regime shift is taking
place, with cascading impacts on physical systems, ecosystems, and human
livelihoods."
This has begun with a massive melt of sea ice in the region and a resulting
threat to native marine species. "For Arctic marine biota," the report
notes, "the rapid reduction of summer ice covers causes a tipping element
that is now severely affecting pelagic [sub-surface] ecosystems as well as
ice-dependent mammals such as seals and polar bears." Other flora and fauna
of the Arctic biome are also demonstrating stress related to climate change.
For example, vast areas of tundra are being invaded by shrubs and small
trees, decimating the habitats of some animal species and increasing the
risk of fires.
This Arctic "regime shift" affects many other aspects of the ecosystem as
well. Higher temperatures, for instance, have meant widespread thawing and
melting of permafrost, the frozen soil and water that undergirds much of the
Arctic landmass. In this lies another possible tipping-point danger, since
frozen soils contain more than twice the carbon now present in the
atmosphere. As the permafrost melts, some of this carbon is released in the
form of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming
potential of carbon dioxide and other such gases. In other words, as the
IPCC noted, any significant melting of Arctic permafrost will "create a
potentially strong positive feedback to accelerate Arctic (and global)
warming." This, in fact, could prove to be more than a tipping point. It
could be a planetary catastrophe.
Along with these biophysical effects, the warming of the Arctic is
threatening the livelihoods and lifestyles of the indigenous peoples of the
region. The loss of summer sea ice, for example, has endangered the marine
species on which many such communities depend for food and the preservation
of their cultural traditions. Meanwhile, melting permafrost and coastal
erosion due to sea-level rise have threatened the very existence of their
coastal villages. In September, President Obama visited Kotzebue, a village
in Alaska some 30 miles above the Arctic Circle that could disappear as a
result of melting permafrost, rising sea levels, and ever bigger storm
surges.
Coral Reefs at Risk
Another crucial ecosystem that's showing signs of heading toward an
irreversible tipping point is the world's constellation of coral reefs.
Remarkably enough, although such reefs make up less than 1% of the Earth's
surface area, they house up to 25% of all marine life. They are, that is,
essential for both the health of the oceans and of fishing communities, as
well as of those who depend on fish for a significant part of their diet.
According to one estimate, some 850 million people rely on coral reefs for
their food security.
Corals, which are colonies of tiny animals related to sea anemones, have
proven highly sensitive to changes in the acidity and temperature of their
surrounding waters, both of which are rising due to the absorption of excess
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. As a result, in a visually dramatic
process called "bleaching," coral populations have been dying out globally.
According to a recent study by the Worldwide Fund for Nature, coral reef
extent has declined by 50% in the last 30 years and all reefs could
disappear as early as 2050 if current rates of ocean warming and
acidification continue.
"This irreversible loss of biodiversity," reports the IPCC, will have
"significant consequences for regional marine ecosystems as well as the
human livelihoods that depend on them." Indeed, the growing evidence of
such losses "strengthens the conclusion that increased mass bleaching of
corals constitutes a strong warning signal for the singular event that would
constitute the irreversible loss of an entire biome."
Amazonian Dry-Out
The Amazon has long been viewed as the epitome of a tropical rainforest,
with extraordinary plant and animal diversity. The Amazonian tree cover
also plays a vital role in reducing the pace of global warming by absorbing
vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during the process of
photosynthesis. For years, however, the Amazon has been increasingly
devastated by a process of deforestation, as settlers from Brazil's coastal
regions clear land for farming and ranching, and loggers (many operating
illegally) harvest timber for wood products. Now, as if to add insult to
injury, the region faces a new threat from climate change: tree mortality
due to a rise in severe drought and the increased forest fire risk that
accompanies it.
Although it can rain year-round in the Amazon region, there is a distinct
wet season with heavy rainfall and a dry season with much less of it. An
extended dry season with little rain can endanger the survival of many trees
and increase the risk of wildfires. Research conducted by scientists at the
University of Texas has found that the dry season in the southern Amazonian
region has grown by a week every decade since 1980 while the annual fire
season has lengthened. "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already
marginal for maintaining rainforest," says Rong Fu, the leader of the
research team. "At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will
reach a tipping point" and disappear.
Because the Amazon harbors perhaps the largest array of distinctive flora
and fauna on the planet, its loss would represent an irreversible blow to
global biodiversity. In addition, the region hosts some of the largest
assemblages of indigenous peoples still practicing their traditional ways of
life. Even if their lives were saved (through relocation to urban slums or
government encampments), the loss of their cultures, representing thousands
of years of adaptation to a demanding environment, would be a blow for all
humankind.
As in the case of the Arctic and coral reefs, the collapse of the Amazon
will have what the IPCC terms "cascading impacts," devastating ecosystems,
diminishing biodiversity, and destroying the ways of life of indigenous
peoples. Worse yet, as with the melting of the Arctic, so the drying-out of
Amazonia is likely to feed into climate change, heightening its intensity
and so sparking yet more tipping points on a planet increasingly close to
the brink.
In its report, the IPCC, whose analysis tends, if anything, to be on the
conservative side of climate science, indicated that the Amazon faced a
relatively low risk of dying out by 2100. However, a 2009 study conducted
by Britain's famed Meteorological (Met) Office suggests that the risk is far
greater than previously assumed. Even if global temperatures were to be
held to an increase of 2 degrees Celsius, the study notes, as much as 40% of
the Amazon would perish within a century; with 3 degrees of warming, up to
75% would vanish; and with 4 degrees, 85% would die. "The forest as we know
it would effectively be gone," said Met researcher Vicky Pope.
Of Tipping Points and Singularities
These four natural systems are by no means the only ones that could face
devastating tipping points in the years to come. The IPCC report and other
scientific studies hint at further biomes that show early signs of potential
catastrophe. But these four are sufficiently advanced to tell us that we
need to look at climate change in a new way: not as a slow, linear process
to which we can adapt over time, but as a non-linear set of events involving
dramatic and irreversible changes to the global ecosphere.
The difference is critical: linear change gives us the luxury of time to
devise and implement curbs on greenhouse gas emissions, and to construct
protective measures such as sea walls. Non-linear change puts a crimp on
time and confronts us with the possibility of relatively sudden, devastating
climate shifts against which no defensive measures can protect us.
Were the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to fail, for example,
there would be nothing we could do to turn it back on, nor would we be able
to recreate coral reefs or resurrect the Amazon. Add in one other factor:
when natural systems of this magnitude fail, should we not expect human
systems to fail as well? No one can answer this question with certainty,
but we do know that earlier human societies collapsed when faced with other
kinds of profound changes in climate.
All of this should be on the minds of delegates to the upcoming climate
summit in Paris, a meeting focused on adopting an international set of
restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. Each participating nation is
obliged to submit a set of measures it is ready to take, known as "intended
nationally determined contributions," or INDCs, aimed at achieving the
overall goal of preventing planetary warming from exceeding 2 degrees
Celsius. However, the INDCs submitted to date, including those from the
United States and China, suggest a distinctly incremental approach to the
problem. Unfortunately, if planetary tipping points are in our future, this
mindset will not measure up. It's time to start thinking instead in terms
of civilizational survival.
Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch regular, is a professor of peace and world
security studies at Hampshire College and the author, most recently, of The
Race for What's Left. A documentary movie version of his book Blood and Oil
is available from the Media Education Foundation. Follow him on Twitter at
@mklare1.
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest
Dispatch Book, Nick Turse's Tomorrow's Battlefield: U.S. Proxy Wars and
Secret Ops in Africa, and Tom Engelhardt's latest book, Shadow Government:
Surveillance, Secret Wars, and a Global Security State in a
Single-Superpower World.
Copyright 2015 Michael T. Klare
C 2015 TomDispatch. All rights reserved.
View this story online at: http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176054
Tomgram: Michael Klare, Tipping Points and the Question of Civilizational
Survival
By Michael Klare
Posted on October 8, 2015, Printed on October 9, 2015
http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176054/
[Note for TomDispatch Readers: We're off for Columbus Day! The next TD piece
will be on Tuesday, October 13th. In the meantime, remember that at our
donation page we have a particularly striking set of books on offer,
including Kissinger's Shadow, Greg Grandin's devastating account of the
bloody career of the good "doctor"; Base Nation, David Vine's revelatory
mapping of the way the U.S. has garrisoned the planet; and American
Reckoning: The Vietnam War and Our National Identity, Christian Appy's
riveting exploration of that war's fallout in American culture; as well as
books by Nick Turse, Rory Fanning, and me. All of them are still available,
signed and personalized, in return for a contribution of $100 or more. It's
a great way to help TomDispatch stay eternally afloat. Tom]
In mid-August, TomDispatch's Michael Klare wrote presciently of the oncoming
global oil glut, the way it was driving the price of petroleum into the
"energy subbasement," and how such a financial "rout," if extended over the
next couple of years, might lead toward a new (and better) world of energy.
As it happens, the first good news of the sort Klare was imagining has since
come in. In a country where the price of gas at the pump now averages $2.29
a gallon (and in some places has dropped under $1.90), Big Oil has begun
cutting back on its devastating plans to extract every imaginable drop of
fossil fuel from the planet and burn it. Oil companies have also been laying
off employees by the tens of thousands and deep-sixing, at least for now,
plans to search for and exploit tar sands and other "tough oil" deposits
worldwide.
In that context, as September ended, after a disappointing six weeks of
drilling, Royal Dutch Shell cancelled "for the foreseeable future" its
search for oil and natural gas in the tempestuous but melting waters of the
Alaskan Arctic. This was no small thing and a great victory for an
environmental movement that had long fought to put obstacles in the way of
Shell's exploration plans. Green-lighted by the Obama administration to
drill in the Chukchi Sea this summer, Shell has over the last nine years
sunk more than $7 billion into its Arctic drilling project, so the decision
to close up shop was no small thing and offers a tiny ray of hope for what
activism can do when reality offers a modest helping hand.
As Klare makes clear today, when it comes to the burning of fossil fuels,
reality -- if only we bother to notice it -- is threatening to offer
something more like the back of its hand to us on this embattled planet of
ours. He offers a look at a future in which humanity, like various
increasingly endangered ecosystems including the Arctic, may be approaching
a "tipping point." Tom
Welcome to a New Planet
Climate Change "Tipping Points" and the Fate of the Earth
By Michael T. Klare
Not so long ago, it was science fiction. Now, it's hard science -- and that
should frighten us all. The latest reports from the prestigious and sober
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) make increasingly
hair-raising reading, suggesting that the planet is approaching possible
moments of irreversible damage in a fashion and at a speed that had not been
anticipated.
Scientists have long worried that climate change will not continue to
advance in a "linear" fashion, with the planet getting a little bit hotter
most years. Instead, they fear, humanity could someday experience
"non-linear" climate shifts (also known as "singularities" or "tipping
points") after which there would be sudden and irreversible change of a
catastrophic nature. This was the premise of the 2004 climate-disaster film
The Day After Tomorrow. In that movie -- most notable for its vivid scenes
of a frozen-over New York City -- melting polar ice causes a disruption in
the North Atlantic Current, which in turn triggers a series of catastrophic
storms and disasters. At the time of its release, many knowledgeable
scientists derided the film's premise, insisting that the confluence of
events it portrayed was unlikely or simply impossible.
Fast forward 11 years and the prospect of such calamitous tipping points in
the North Atlantic or elsewhere no longer looks improbable. In fact, climate
scientists have begun to note early indicators of possible catastrophes.
Take the disruption of the North Atlantic Current, the pivotal event in The
Day After Tomorrow. Essentially an extension of the Gulf Stream, that
deep-sea current carries relatively warm salty water from the South Atlantic
and the Caribbean to the northern reaches of the Atlantic. In the process,
it helps keep Europe warmer than it would otherwise be. Once its salty water
flows into sub-Arctic areas carried by this prolific stream, it gets colder
and heavier, sinks to lower depths, and starts a return trip to warmer
climes in the south where the whole process begins again.
So long as this "global conveyor belt" -- known to scientists as the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC -- keeps functioning,
the Gulf Stream will also continue to bring warmer waters to the eastern
United States and Europe. Should it be disrupted, however, the whole system
might break down, in which case the Euro-Atlantic climate could turn colder
and more storm-prone. Such a disruption might occur if the vast Greenland
ice sheet melts in a significant way, as indeed is already beginning to
happen today, pouring large quantities of salt-free fresh water into the
Atlantic Ocean. Because of its lighter weight, this newly introduced water
will remain close to the surface, preventing the submergence of salty water
from the south and so effectively shutting down the conveyor belt. Indeed,
exactly this process now seems to be underway.
By all accounts, 2015 is likely to wind up as the hottest year on record,
with large parts of the world suffering from severe heat waves and
wildfires. Despite all this, however, a stretch of the North Atlantic below
Iceland and Greenland is experiencing all-time cold temperatures, according
to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. What explains this
anomaly? According to scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research and Pennsylvania State University, among other institutions,
the most likely explanation is the arrival in the area of cold water from
the Greenland ice sheet that is melting ever more rapidly thanks to climate
change. Because this meltwater starts out salt-free, it has remained near
the surface and so, as predicted, is slowing the northern advance of warmer
water from the North Atlantic Current.
So far, the AMOC has not suffered a dramatic shutdown, but it is slowing,
and scientists worry that a rapid increase in Greenland ice melt as the
Arctic continues to warm will pour ever more meltwater into the North
Atlantic, severely disrupting the conveyor system. That would, indeed,
constitute a major tipping point, with severe consequences for Europe and
eastern North America. Not only would Europe experience colder temperatures
on an otherwise warmer planet, but coastal North America could witness
higher sea levels than those predicted from climate change alone because the
Gulf Stream tends to pull sea water away from the eastern U.S. and push it
toward Europe. If it were to fail, rising sea levels could endanger cities
like New York and Boston. Indeed, scientists discovered that just such a
slowing of the AMOC helped produce a sea-level rise of four inches from New
York to Newfoundland in 2009 and 2010.
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1250023971/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1250023971/ref=nosim/?tag=tomdispatch-20In its 2014
report on the status of global warming, the IPCC indicated that the
likelihood of the AMOC collapsing before the end of this century remains
relatively low. But some studies suggest that the conveyor system is already
15%-20% below normal with Greenland's melting still in an early stage. Once
that process switches into high gear, the potential for the sort of
breakdown that was once science fiction starts to look all too real.
Tipping Points on the Horizon
In a 2014 report, "Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability," Working Group II
of the IPCC identified three other natural systems already showing
early-warning signs of catastrophic tipping points: the Arctic, coral reefs,
and the Amazonian forest. All three, the report suggested, could experience
massive and irreversible changes with profound implications for human
societies.
The Arctic comes in for particular scrutiny because it has experienced more
warming than any other region on the planet and because the impact of
climate change there is already so obvious. As the report put it, "For the
Arctic region, new evidence indicates a biophysical regime shift is taking
place, with cascading impacts on physical systems, ecosystems, and human
livelihoods."
This has begun with a massive melt of sea ice in the region and a resulting
threat to native marine species. "For Arctic marine biota," the report
notes, "the rapid reduction of summer ice covers causes a tipping element
that is now severely affecting pelagic [sub-surface] ecosystems as well as
ice-dependent mammals such as seals and polar bears." Other flora and fauna
of the Arctic biome are also demonstrating stress related to climate change.
For example, vast areas of tundra are being invaded by shrubs and small
trees, decimating the habitats of some animal species and increasing the
risk of fires.
This Arctic "regime shift" affects many other aspects of the ecosystem as
well. Higher temperatures, for instance, have meant widespread thawing and
melting of permafrost, the frozen soil and water that undergirds much of the
Arctic landmass. In this lies another possible tipping-point danger, since
frozen soils contain more than twice the carbon now present in the
atmosphere. As the permafrost melts, some of this carbon is released in the
form of methane, a potent greenhouse gas with many times the warming
potential of carbon dioxide and other such gases. In other words, as the
IPCC noted, any significant melting of Arctic permafrost will "create a
potentially strong positive feedback to accelerate Arctic (and global)
warming." This, in fact, could prove to be more than a tipping point. It
could be a planetary catastrophe.
Along with these biophysical effects, the warming of the Arctic is
threatening the livelihoods and lifestyles of the indigenous peoples of the
region. The loss of summer sea ice, for example, has endangered the marine
species on which many such communities depend for food and the preservation
of their cultural traditions. Meanwhile, melting permafrost and coastal
erosion due to sea-level rise have threatened the very existence of their
coastal villages. In September, President Obama visited Kotzebue, a village
in Alaska some 30 miles above the Arctic Circle that could disappear as a
result of melting permafrost, rising sea levels, and ever bigger storm
surges.
Coral Reefs at Risk
Another crucial ecosystem that's showing signs of heading toward an
irreversible tipping point is the world's constellation of coral reefs.
Remarkably enough, although such reefs make up less than 1% of the Earth's
surface area, they house up to 25% of all marine life. They are, that is,
essential for both the health of the oceans and of fishing communities, as
well as of those who depend on fish for a significant part of their diet.
According to one estimate, some 850 million people rely on coral reefs for
their food security.
Corals, which are colonies of tiny animals related to sea anemones, have
proven highly sensitive to changes in the acidity and temperature of their
surrounding waters, both of which are rising due to the absorption of excess
carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. As a result, in a visually dramatic
process called "bleaching," coral populations have been dying out globally.
According to a recent study by the Worldwide Fund for Nature, coral reef
extent has declined by 50% in the last 30 years and all reefs could
disappear as early as 2050 if current rates of ocean warming and
acidification continue.
"This irreversible loss of biodiversity," reports the IPCC, will have
"significant consequences for regional marine ecosystems as well as the
human livelihoods that depend on them." Indeed, the growing evidence of such
losses "strengthens the conclusion that increased mass bleaching of corals
constitutes a strong warning signal for the singular event that would
constitute the irreversible loss of an entire biome."
Amazonian Dry-Out
The Amazon has long been viewed as the epitome of a tropical rainforest,
with extraordinary plant and animal diversity. The Amazonian tree cover also
plays a vital role in reducing the pace of global warming by absorbing vast
amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during the process of
photosynthesis. For years, however, the Amazon has been increasingly
devastated by a process of deforestation, as settlers from Brazil's coastal
regions clear land for farming and ranching, and loggers (many operating
illegally) harvest timber for wood products. Now, as if to add insult to
injury, the region faces a new threat from climate change: tree mortality
due to a rise in severe drought and the increased forest fire risk that
accompanies it.
Although it can rain year-round in the Amazon region, there is a distinct
wet season with heavy rainfall and a dry season with much less of it. An
extended dry season with little rain can endanger the survival of many trees
and increase the risk of wildfires. Research conducted by scientists at the
University of Texas has found that the dry season in the southern Amazonian
region has grown by a week every decade since 1980 while the annual fire
season has lengthened. "The dry season over the southern Amazon is already
marginal for maintaining rainforest," says Rong Fu, the leader of the
research team. "At some point, if it becomes too long, the rainforest will
reach a tipping point" and disappear.
Because the Amazon harbors perhaps the largest array of distinctive flora
and fauna on the planet, its loss would represent an irreversible blow to
global biodiversity. In addition, the region hosts some of the largest
assemblages of indigenous peoples still practicing their traditional ways of
life. Even if their lives were saved (through relocation to urban slums or
government encampments), the loss of their cultures, representing thousands
of years of adaptation to a demanding environment, would be a blow for all
humankind.
As in the case of the Arctic and coral reefs, the collapse of the Amazon
will have what the IPCC terms "cascading impacts," devastating ecosystems,
diminishing biodiversity, and destroying the ways of life of indigenous
peoples. Worse yet, as with the melting of the Arctic, so the drying-out of
Amazonia is likely to feed into climate change, heightening its intensity
and so sparking yet more tipping points on a planet increasingly close to
the brink.
In its report, the IPCC, whose analysis tends, if anything, to be on the
conservative side of climate science, indicated that the Amazon faced a
relatively low risk of dying out by 2100. However, a 2009 study conducted by
Britain's famed Meteorological (Met) Office suggests that the risk is far
greater than previously assumed. Even if global temperatures were to be held
to an increase of 2 degrees Celsius, the study notes, as much as 40% of the
Amazon would perish within a century; with 3 degrees of warming, up to 75%
would vanish; and with 4 degrees, 85% would die. "The forest as we know it
would effectively be gone," said Met researcher Vicky Pope.
Of Tipping Points and Singularities
These four natural systems are by no means the only ones that could face
devastating tipping points in the years to come. The IPCC report and other
scientific studies hint at further biomes that show early signs of potential
catastrophe. But these four are sufficiently advanced to tell us that we
need to look at climate change in a new way: not as a slow, linear process
to which we can adapt over time, but as a non-linear set of events involving
dramatic and irreversible changes to the global ecosphere.
The difference is critical: linear change gives us the luxury of time to
devise and implement curbs on greenhouse gas emissions, and to construct
protective measures such as sea walls. Non-linear change puts a crimp on
time and confronts us with the possibility of relatively sudden, devastating
climate shifts against which no defensive measures can protect us.
Were the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to fail, for example,
there would be nothing we could do to turn it back on, nor would we be able
to recreate coral reefs or resurrect the Amazon. Add in one other factor:
when natural systems of this magnitude fail, should we not expect human
systems to fail as well? No one can answer this question with certainty, but
we do know that earlier human societies collapsed when faced with other
kinds of profound changes in climate.
All of this should be on the minds of delegates to the upcoming climate
summit in Paris, a meeting focused on adopting an international set of
restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. Each participating nation is
obliged to submit a set of measures it is ready to take, known as "intended
nationally determined contributions," or INDCs, aimed at achieving the
overall goal of preventing planetary warming from exceeding 2 degrees
Celsius. However, the INDCs submitted to date, including those from the
United States and China, suggest a distinctly incremental approach to the
problem. Unfortunately, if planetary tipping points are in our future, this
mindset will not measure up. It's time to start thinking instead in terms of
civilizational survival.
Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch regular, is a professor of peace and world
security studies at Hampshire College and the author, most recently, of The
Race for What's Left. A documentary movie version of his book Blood and Oil
is available from the Media Education Foundation. Follow him on Twitter at
@mklare1.
Follow TomDispatch on Twitter and join us on Facebook. Check out the newest
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Copyright 2015 Michael T. Klare
C 2015 TomDispatch. All rights reserved.
View this story online at: http://www.tomdispatch.com/blog/176054
