The Real Reason Behind Trump's Angry Diplomacy in North Korea
Published on
Tuesday, October 17, 2017
by
Common Dreams
The Real Reason Behind Trump's Angry Diplomacy in North Korea
Witnessing America's disastrous wars in the Middle East, North Korea has
been waiting for their turn on the US regime change path, and their nuclear
weapons program is their only deterring strategy in the face of US military
interventions.
by
Ramzy Baroud
Current news reports of North Korea's supposed ability to kill "90% of all
Americans" within one year is the kind of ignorance and fear-mongering that
has dragged the US into multiple wars, costing the economy trillions of
dollars, while continuing to make bad situations far worse.
"Current news reports of North Korea's supposed ability to kill "90% of all
Americans" within one year is the kind of ignorance and fear-mongering that
has dragged the US into multiple wars, costing the economy trillions of
dollars, while continuing to make bad situations far worse." (Photo: KCNA
via Reuters)
To understand the United States' stratagem in the Pacific, and against North
Korea in particular, one has to understand the fundamental changes that are
under way in that region. China's clout as an Asian superpower and as a
global economic powerhouse has been growing at a rapid speed. The US'
belated 'pivot to Asia' to counter China's rise has been, thus far, quite
ineffectual.
The angry diplomacy of President Donald Trump is Washington's way to scare
off North Korea's traditional ally, China, and disrupt what has been, till
now, quite a smooth Chinese economic, political and military ascendency in
Asia that has pushed against US regional influence, especially in the East
and South China Seas.
Despite the fact that China has reevaluated its once strong ties with North
Korea, in recent years, it views with great alarm any military build-up by
the US and its allies. A stronger US military in that region will be a
direct challenge to China's inevitable trade and political hegemony.
The US understands that its share of the world's economic pie chart is
constantly being reduced, and that China is gaining ground, and fast.
The United States' economy is the world's largest, but not for long.
Statistics show that China is blazing the trail and will, by 2030 - or even
sooner - win the coveted spot. In fact, according to an International
Monetary Fund report in 2014, China is already the world's largest economy
when the method of measurement is adjusted by purchasing power.
This is not an anomaly and is not reversible, at least any time soon.
The growth rate of the US economy over the past 30 years has averaged 2.4
percent, while China soared at 9.3 percent.
Citing these numbers, Paul Ormerod, an economist and a visiting professor at
University College, London, argued in a recent article that "if we project
these rates forward, the Chinese economy will be as big as the American by
2024. By 2037, it will be more than twice the size."
It is no wonder why Trump obsessively referenced 'China' in his many
campaigning speeches prior to his election to the White House, and why he
continues to blame China for North Korea's nuclear weapons program to this
day.
As a business mogul, Trump understands how real power works, and that his
country's nuclear arsenal, estimated at nearly 7,000 nuclear weapons, is
simply not enough to reverse his country's economic misfortunes.
In fact, China's nuclear arsenal is quite miniscule compared to the US.
Military power alone is not a sufficient measurement of actual power that
can be translated into economic stability, sustainable wealth and financial
security of a nation.
It is ironic that, while the US threatens to 'totally destroy North Korea,'
it is the Chinese government that is using sensible language, calling for
de-escalation and citing international law. Not only did fortunes change,
but roles as well. China, which for many years was depicted as a rogue
state, now seems like the cornerstone of stability in Asia.
Prudent US leaders, like former President Jimmy Carter understand well the
need to involve China in resolving the US-North Korean standoff.
In an article in the Washington Post, Carter, 93, called for immediate and
direct diplomatic engagement with North Korea that involves China as well.
He wrote on October 4, the US should "offer to send a high-level delegation
to Pyongyang for peace talks or to support an international conference
including North and South Korea, the United States and China, at a mutually
acceptable site."
A few days leader, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying,
quoted Carter's article, and reasserted her country's position that only a
diplomatic solution could bring the crisis to an end.
In a recent tweet, Trump claimed that "Presidents and their administrations
have been talking to North Korea for 25 years, agreements made and massive
amounts of money paid . hasn't worked."
He alleged that North Korea has violated these agreements even "before the
ink was dry", finishing with the ominous warning that "only one thing will
work!", alluding to war.
Trump is a bad student of history. The 'agreements' he was referring to is
the 'Agreed Framework' of 1994, signed between President Bill Clinton and
Kim Jong-il - the father of the current leader Kim Jong-un. In fact, the
crisis was averted, when Pyongyang respected its side of the agreement. The
US, however, reneged, argued Fred Kaplan in 'Slate'.
"North Korea kept its side of the bargain, the United States did not,"
Kaplan wrote. "No light-water reactors were provided. (South Korea and Japan
were supposed to pay for the reactors; they didn't, and the U.S. Congress
didn't step in.) Nor was any progress made on diplomatic recognition."
It took North Korea years to react to the US and its partners' violation of
the terms of the deal.
In 2001, the US invaded and destroyed Afghanistan. In 2003, it invaded Iraq,
and actively began threatening a regime change in Iran. Iraq, Iran and North
Korea were already blacklisted as the "axis of evil" in George W. Bush's
infamous speech in 2002.
More military interventions followed, especially as the Middle East fell
into unprecedented chaos resulting from the so-called Arab Spring in 2011.
Regime change, as became the case in Libya, remained the defining doctrine
of US foreign policy.
This is the actual reality that terrifies North Korea. For 15 years they
have been waiting for their turn on the US regime change path, and their
nuclear weapons program is their only deterring strategy in the face of US
military interventions. The more the North Korean leadership felt isolated
regionally and internationally, the more determined it became in obtaining
nuclear devices.
This is the context that Trump does not want to understand. US mainstream
media, which seems to loathe Trump in every way except when he threatens war
or defends Israel, is following blindly.
Current news reports of North Korea's supposed ability to kill "90% of all
Americans" within one year is the kind of ignorance and fear-mongering that
has dragged the US into multiple wars, costing the economy trillions of
dollars, while continuing to make bad situations far worse.
Indeed, a recent Brown University Study showed that, between 2001 and 2016,
the cost of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Pakistan has cost the US
$3.6 trillion.
Perhaps, a better way of fending against the rise of China is investing in
the US economy instead of wasting money on protracted wars.
But if a Trump war in North Korea takes place, what would it look like?
US Newsweek magazine took on this very disturbing question, only to provide
equally worrying answers.
"If combat broke out between the two countries, American commanders in the
Pacific would very quickly exhaust their stockpiles of smart bombs and
missiles, possibly within a week," military sources revealed.
It will take a year for the US military to replenish their stockpile, thus
leaving them with the option of "dropping crude gravity bombs on their
targets, guaranteeing a longer and bloodier conflict for both sides."
Expectedly, North Korea would strike, at will, all of the US allies in the
region, starting with South Korea. Even if the conflict does not escalate to
the use of nuclear weapons, the death toll from such a war "could reach 1
million."
Both Trump and Kim Jong-un are unsavory figures, driven by fragile egos and
unsound judgement. Yet, they are both in a position that, if not reigned in
soon, could threaten global security and the lives of millions.
Calls for diplomatic solutions made by Carter and China must be heeded,
before it is too late.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0
License
Ramzy Baroud
Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net) is an author and editor of
PalestineChronicle.com. His work has been published in many newspapers,
journals and anthologies around the world. His is the author of The Second
Palestinian Intifada: A Chronicle of a People's Struggle (Pluto Press,
London). His latest book is My Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold
Story (Pluto Press, London).
