Six Days to Go: Nukes, Trump, and Cybersecurity
JOHN BUELL
01/14/2021
Southwest Harbor, Maine (Special to Informed Comment) - Should American
citizens feel relieved that Speaker Pelosi has met with General Milley to
discuss the nuclear command structure? I am not. From the start of the
nuclear age we have been asked to believe that as long as these weapons of
mass destruction were under the supervision of the adults in the room we
need not be overly alarmed. Even much of the focus of presidential campaigns
has been on the qualifications and maturity of the man or woman who would
hold the nuclear trigger.
Constructive as Pelosi's conversation may have been, reports on it beg one
important question. Barring impeachment and conviction, Trump remains
commander in chief with presumably full control of that lethal trigger. And
since the system is predicated on the need for rapid response it seems
unlikely that there could be too many barriers to impetuous actions by
Trump. And if there are such barriers would these not amount to an
unconstitutional attack on the powers of the presidency, a counter coup? MIT
professor and expert on nuclear proliferation issues Vipin Narang discussed
this issue in a recent Washington Post interview: ". Is there anything
Milley can do to prevent the president from "accessing the launch codes and
ordering a nuclear strike"?
"The answer is emphatically no. The president, and the president alone,
possesses the sole authority to order a nuclear launch, and no one can
legally stop him or her. Despite reports that Pelosi received assurances
that there are safeguards in place in the event the president of the United
States (POTUS) wants to launch a nuclear weapon, any such meaningful or
effective safeguards would be illegal."
The threat of reckless nuclear strikes by a leader who has often threatened
use of such weapons is a further reason to impeach and convict or otherwise
remove from office as soon as possible.
Important as is this legal drama it should not distract us from the growing
dangers posed by the evolution of these technologies. Modernization of
nuclear weapons means their further digitalization. The Biden Harris
administration is likely to follow the Obama-Biden request for a 300 billion
dollar commitment to nuclear modernization. I find it curious that in a
month when the US has been victim of a major cyberattack of yet unknown
dimensions and duration political leaders and pundits would worry almost
exclusively about the nuclear damage Trump might do. To the damage that
would result from prosaic events as mishandling the hardware we now must add
such possibilities as these, cited by Nuclear Threat Institute (NTI)
scholars:
An attack on early warning systems that provide false indications of a
nuclear attack during a crisis
Disruption of communications between officials, operators, and nuclear
systems and/or international counterparts in a potential crisis
Introduction of a flaw or malevolent code into nuclear weapons through the
supply chain or otherwise in a way that could compromise the effectiveness
of those weapons
Achieving unauthorized control of a nuclear weapon through cyber-assisted
theft and/or defeating of security devices.
NTI adds: "Cyberattacks are becoming increasingly sophisticated and levels
of digitization are growing (for example, as will undoubtedly occur during
the upcoming modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal). Taken together,
this is a dangerous mix and governments and industry must act to address the
threat."
Cyber protocols and procedures might be negotiated to limit such risks, but
the hackers and other malevolent interests always seem to be a step ahead.
When it comes to nuclear weaponry cybersecurity may be an illusion. Unlike
many of life's responsibilities, being successful most of the time is not
good enough.
Taking nuclear weaponry off high alert status may improve our odds in the
short run. Nonetheless, curbing our growing dependence on digital
technologies and complete nuclear disarmament, however seemingly
unrealistic, are better bets for our long run survival.
