I have to remind myself that I am about as lousy a predictor of
elections as ever walked on two hind legs.
But still, we are talking about thinking people. Men and women who,
after blowing off steam, stop and think rationally before taking that
really fatal step. Forget what the polls are telling us. And ignore
the talking heads and the shock jocks. It's critical to their careers
to have a cat and dog fight to the death. It catches the attention of
folks who would otherwise be following important issues...like who's
going to win the World Series. And if too many heads are turned away,
and too many ears are closed, there will then be far too few products
sold, and far too little money greasing the palms of Corporate Media.
I think of a baseball game I listened to on the radio, a couple of
years back. The score was 12 to nothing in the bottom of the fifth.
Realistically, that is about the time a person would start spinning
the dial, or roaming with the remote. But of course the announcer
knew that if he lost his audience, his sponsors would think twice
about spending advertising money on this team. At least they would
not be into running ads after about the fifth inning.
So this announcer began to make up plays. Since it was radio and the
team was playing away, he just went about loading up the bases and
then creating amazing triple plays, players caught stealing home,
fights between the manager and the umpire. It was a real cliff
hanger, keeping listeners on the edge of their seats. The final score
was 14 to 3, but those who listened to the bitter end, got a real
battle.
This is where I see Trump versus Clinton. Alright, so Clinton is
about as exciting as last weeks newspaper, and Trump is about as
factual as the winner at the Liars Club. But the networks must create
interest, so they cling to every snotty little smirk from Trump's
lips, repeating them while they try to make them sound profound. It
begins to look like Trump is really in the race. Stay tuned in,
folks! Keep watching them commercials. And all the while, don't look
too closely at the Red states versus the Blue states.
It's not just Wall Street, Folks. It's Madison Avenue. Smoke and
mirrors all the way.
Carl Jarvis
On 9/15/16, Miriam Vieni <miriamvieni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
'President Donald Trump': Latest Polls Indicate Clinton Could Actually Lose
This Thing
Published on
Thursday, September 15, 2016
by
Common Dreams
'President Donald Trump': Latest Polls Indicate Clinton Could Actually Lose
This Thing
The decline of the Clinton campaign has less to do with her rival's success
and more to do with her failure to articulate a bold, inspiring vision for
voters
by
Lauren McCauley, staff writer
Although the public continues to express record dissatisfaction with both
candidates, new polls suggest that the antagonistic bombast of Donald Trump
has galvanized more enthusiasm among supporters than Hillary Clinton.
(Photo: Getty)
Two new polls released on Thursday highlight a disturbing reality: In a
race
between two unpopular candidates, an excited base could mean everything.
And
in the case of the current presidential contest—a race that observers say
is
"hers to lose"—the failure of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to inspire
voters could prove her ultimate downfall.
The latest update of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking
poll found that Donald Trump's advantage over Clinton "grew to nearly six
percentage points on Thursday, his largest advantage since his
post-convention bounce in July."
According to the LA Times, the biggest reason for the bump "appears to be
an
increase in the likelihood of Trump supporters who say they plan to vote,
combined with a drop among Clinton supporters on that question. The
nominees
are now roughly equal in the voting commitment of their supporters, erasing
an advantage previously held by Clinton."
Similarly, the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that in a
four-way race, the two leading party candidates are tied at 42 percent
while
Libertarian Gary Johnson wins eight percent and Green Party nominee Jill
Stein takes four.
According to RealClearPolitics' national polling average, in a two-way
race,
Clinton's lead over her Republican rival has dropped to less than two
points
from eight points in early August.
And although the public continues to express record dissatisfaction with
both candidates, the New York Times suggests that Trump's antagonistic
bombast has galvanized more enthusiasm among supporters.
"Over all, just 43 percent of likely voters describe themselves as very
enthusiastic about casting a ballot in November," the New York Times
reports. "Fifty-one percent of Mr. Trump's supporters say they are very
enthusiastic about voting; 43 percent of Mrs. Clinton's supporters say they
are very enthusiastic."
The lackluster support is particularly evident among young voters, many of
whom were devotees of former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. According
to the New York Times/CBS survey, more than a third of likely voters age
18-29 back a third-party candidate.
Another shocking take-away from that poll is that Trump and Clinton are
virtually tied among white women with 45 and 46 percent, respectively.
It is worth noting that this latest installment of the New York Times/ CBS
poll is the first to include a measure of likely voters, which weighs
respondents by their answers to questions about voting history, attention
to
the campaign, and likelihood of voting. As New York Magazine's Ed Kilgore
pointed out, this factor typically gives Republican candidates a "bump"
that
may continue to boost Trump in future polling as other surveys begin to
include this measure.
Kilgore on Wednesday broke down the most recent battleground state
assessments and determined, "It is possible, in fact, that Trump is opening
up multiple paths to victory."
"[Clinton's] refusal to even attempt to embrace bold progressive values and
her inability to read the simmering nationwide anger over economic and
racial injustice are the larger obstacles to her popularity."
—Sonali Kolhatkar
The most recent CNN/ORC battleground state poll on Wednesday found that in
a
four-way race among likely voters, Trump edges out Clinton in both Ohio and
Florida. Meanwhile, the latest Monmouth University poll showed Trump
overtaking Clinton in Nevada, 44 to 42 percent.
"If you want Trump to win, there’s fresh evidence that your preferred
candidate is within striking distance of actually getting elected," wrote
MSNBC's Steve Benen on Thursday. "If you want Clinton to win, you can no
longer assume this race is in the bag—you and your allies are going to have
to go earn it."
Indeed, columnist and Uprising Radio executive producer Sonali Kolhatkar
wrote recently that the decline of the Clinton campaign has less to do with
her rival's success and more to do with her failure to articulate a bold,
inspiring vision for voters beyond simply "not Trump."
"For Clinton to fixate on Trump's endless flaws suggests that her own
platform has little substance," Kolhatkar wrote. "Her refusal to even
attempt to embrace bold progressive values and her inability to read the
simmering nationwide anger over economic and racial injustice are the
larger
obstacles to her popularity."
She continued:
What Americans are looking for is bold, visionary thinking that
acknowledges
how broken Washington, D.C., is at our collective expense. The majority of
Americans do not want measured, lukewarm progressive positions that keep
systems intact. This is why Sanders, in calling for a "political
revolution," attracted so many new and independent voters, especially young
millennials. This is why Trump is gaining traction, because between the two
major-party candidates, his pathetic piñata-inspiring figure is offering
the
bolder rhetoric.
If Clinton loses this election, it will not be because Americans are dumb,
racist misogynists who would cut off their noses to spite their faces in
refusing to elect a sane woman over an insane man. It will not be because
too many Americans "selfishly" voted for a third party or didn't vote at
all. It will be because Clinton refused to compromise her allegiance to
Wall
Street and the morally bankrupt center-right establishment positions of her
party and chose not to win over voters.
"This election is hers to lose," Kolhatkar concludes, "and if this nation
ends up with President Trump, it will be most of all the fault of Clinton
and the Democratic Party that backs her."
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0
License
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'President Donald Trump': Latest Polls Indicate Clinton Could Actually Lose
This Thing
Published on
Thursday, September 15, 2016
by
Common Dreams
'President Donald Trump': Latest Polls Indicate Clinton Could Actually Lose
This Thing
The decline of the Clinton campaign has less to do with her rival's success
and more to do with her failure to articulate a bold, inspiring vision for
voters
by
Lauren McCauley, staff writer
• 83 Comments
• Although the public continues to express record dissatisfaction with
both candidates, new polls suggest that the antagonistic bombast of Donald
Trump has galvanized more enthusiasm among supporters than Hillary Clinton.
(Photo: Getty)
• Two new polls released on Thursday highlight a disturbing reality:
In a race between two unpopular candidates, an excited base could mean
everything. And in the case of the current presidential contest—a race that
observers say is "hers to lose"—the failure of Democratic nominee Hillary
Clinton to inspire voters could prove her ultimate downfall.
• The latest update of the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national
tracking poll found that Donald Trump's advantage over Clinton "grew to
nearly six percentage points on Thursday, his largest advantage since his
post-convention bounce in July."
• According to the LA Times, the biggest reason for the bump "appears
to be an increase in the likelihood of Trump supporters who say they plan
to
vote, combined with a drop among Clinton supporters on that question. The
nominees are now roughly equal in the voting commitment of their
supporters,
erasing an advantage previously held by Clinton."
• Similarly, the most recent New York Times/CBS News poll found that
in a four-way race, the two leading party candidates are tied at 42 percent
while Libertarian Gary Johnson wins eight percent and Green Party nominee
Jill Stein takes four.
• According to RealClearPolitics' national polling average, in a
two-way race, Clinton's lead over her Republican rival has dropped to less
than two points from eight points in early August.
And although the public continues to express record dissatisfaction with
both candidates, the New York Times suggests that Trump's antagonistic
bombast has galvanized more enthusiasm among supporters.
"Over all, just 43 percent of likely voters describe themselves as very
enthusiastic about casting a ballot in November," the New York Times
reports. "Fifty-one percent of Mr. Trump's supporters say they are very
enthusiastic about voting; 43 percent of Mrs. Clinton's supporters say they
are very enthusiastic."
The lackluster support is particularly evident among young voters, many of
whom were devotees of former Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders. According
to the New York Times/CBS survey, more than a third of likely voters age
18-29 back a third-party candidate.
Another shocking take-away from that poll is that Trump and Clinton are
virtually tied among white women with 45 and 46 percent, respectively.
It is worth noting that this latest installment of the New York Times/ CBS
poll is the first to include a measure of likely voters, which weighs
respondents by their answers to questions about voting history, attention
to
the campaign, and likelihood of voting. As New York Magazine's Ed Kilgore
pointed out, this factor typically gives Republican candidates a "bump"
that
may continue to boost Trump in future polling as other surveys begin to
include this measure.
Kilgore on Wednesday broke down the most recent battleground state
assessments and determined, "It is possible, in fact, that Trump is opening
up multiple paths to victory."
"[Clinton's] refusal to even attempt to embrace bold progressive values and
her inability to read the simmering nationwide anger over economic and
racial injustice are the larger obstacles to her popularity."
—Sonali Kolhatkar
The most recent CNN/ORC battleground state poll on Wednesday found that in
a
four-way race among likely voters, Trump edges out Clinton in both Ohio and
Florida. Meanwhile, the latest Monmouth University poll showed Trump
overtaking Clinton in Nevada, 44 to 42 percent.
"If you want Trump to win, there’s fresh evidence that your preferred
candidate is within striking distance of actually getting elected," wrote
MSNBC's Steve Benen on Thursday. "If you want Clinton to win, you can no
longer assume this race is in the bag—you and your allies are going to have
to go earn it."
Indeed, columnist and Uprising Radio executive producer Sonali Kolhatkar
wrote recently that the decline of the Clinton campaign has less to do with
her rival's success and more to do with her failure to articulate a bold,
inspiring vision for voters beyond simply "not Trump."
"For Clinton to fixate on Trump's endless flaws suggests that her own
platform has little substance," Kolhatkar wrote. "Her refusal to even
attempt to embrace bold progressive values and her inability to read the
simmering nationwide anger over economic and racial injustice are the
larger
obstacles to her popularity."
She continued:
What Americans are looking for is bold, visionary thinking that
acknowledges
how broken Washington, D.C., is at our collective expense. The majority of
Americans do not want measured, lukewarm progressive positions that keep
systems intact. This is why Sanders, in calling for a "political
revolution," attracted so many new and independent voters, especially young
millennials. This is why Trump is gaining traction, because between the two
major-party candidates, his pathetic piñata-inspiring figure is offering
the
bolder rhetoric.
If Clinton loses this election, it will not be because Americans are dumb,
racist misogynists who would cut off their noses to spite their faces in
refusing to elect a sane woman over an insane man. It will not be because
too many Americans "selfishly" voted for a third party or didn't vote at
all. It will be because Clinton refused to compromise her allegiance to
Wall
Street and the morally bankrupt center-right establishment positions of her
party and chose not to win over voters.
"This election is hers to lose," Kolhatkar concludes, "and if this nation
ends up with President Trump, it will be most of all the fault of Clinton
and the Democratic Party that backs her."
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0
License
