Netanyahu is in commanding position in last polls before election
BY PHILIP WEISS MARCH 19, 2021
SUPPORTERS OF ISRAEL'S LIKUD PARTY LIFT A BANNER DEPICTING PRIME MINISTER
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU DURING THE ELECTIONS CAMPAIGN AT MAHANE YEHUDA MARKET IN
JERUSALEM, ON MARCH 19, 2021. CANDIDATES HIT THE STREETS AHEAD OF MARCH 23'S
ISRAELI ELECTION AS A WORLD-BEATING CORONAVIRUS VACCINATION CAMPAIGN ENABLES
FACE-TO-FACE VOTER CONTACT, WITH NETANYAHU HOPING THE INOCULATION EFFORT
EARNS HIM AN ELUSIVE MAJORITY. PHOTO BY JAMAL AWAD. (C) APA IMAGES.
The Israeli press is reporting the last polls before next Tuesday's election
and they show Benjamin Netanyahu in a commanding position. His party has far
and away the largest support of any party, with 29-32 seats, and though the
anti-Netanyahu parties are polling at as much as half the parliament, or 60
seats, they appear to be in thorough disarray.
Most importantly, Israelis overwhelmingly want Netanyahu as prime minister.
Per the i24/Israel Hayom Poll:
When asked who was the best candidate to serve as prime minister, 45% picked
Netanyahu, and 25% picked [Yair] Lapid, followed by 13% who said Gideon
Sa'ar, 12% who said [Naftali] Bennett, and only 5% who picked [Benny] Gantz.
Netanyahu's challenges seem to be melting. Gideon Sa'ar left Netanyahu's
party to challenge Netanyahu, but his party has plummeted from 20 seats in
polling to 10, per 124/Israel Hayom. And though Naftali Bennett was said to
be the possible kingmaker, his party promises it will form a rightwing
government, not one headed by Yair Lapid.
The polls don't offer a clear path to power for Yair Lapid's centrist party,
Yesh Atid, which polls at 18 seats, well behind Netanyahu's Likud Party at
29 seats.
Lapid has been the hope of American liberal Zionists to replace Netanyahu
because even though Lapid is pro-settlements- as are all centrist Israeli
pols- he would work with the Biden administration toward a two-state
solution, say pro-Israel lobbyists here.
Another poll has even worse news for Yair Lapid. "The latest poll I see is
from Direct Polls," Jonathan Ofir reports. "This morning, their result is
this:
Likud 32 (we haven't seen 32 since Feb 1st)
Lapid's Yesh Atid 17
Blue and White 7
Lieberman's Yisrael Beteinu 9
Rightwing religious Shas 9
Bennett's Yamina 8
Palestinian Joint List 7
Rightwing religious United Torah Judaism 7
Sa'ar's New Hope 7 (falling further)
Religious Zionism 5
Meretz 4
Palestinian party Ra'am 4
Labor 4 (relatively low, they've been mostly around 5-6 lately)
"By this one, it's a no brainer for Likud," Ofir says. "It gets to 61 (32 +
Shas 9 + UTJ 7 + Yamina 8 + RZ 5)."
So if the numbers hold, Netanyahu would surely get the nod to form a new
government.
And if Netanyahu falls short and Lapid were to be offered the same
opportunity, he would depend on highly-diverse political elements, per the
i24/Israel Hayom poll: rightwing Gideon Sa'ar at 10 seats, the Joint Arab
List of Palestinian parties at 10 seats, rightwing settler Avigdor
Lieberman's 8 seats, centrist Benny Gantz's 4 seats, and the traditional
Zionist left, of Labor and Meretz, with 10 between them. A governing
scenario would, if the polls hold, likely require a defector from
Netanyahu's bloc and the "outside" support of the Palestinians, i.e., they
would not be part of the resulting government.
American liberal Zionists have compared Netanyahu to Trump, and said both
countries must get rid of their rightwing leaders. It looks as if the U.S.
has accepted that Rx but not Israel.
Netanyahu's potential coalition includes a strong showing by Religious
Zionism at five seats in the poll. This is a racist Kahanist party that
traditionally was legally barred from even running.
Jonathan Ofir has shown the trend: Israeli politics continue to move
rightwards in this election. He credits Netanyahu's recent rise to "the
COVID 'success' of the vaccination program for Israelis. I think time has
been working for Likud, and I think it's logical many people are feeling
that Bibi liberated them, and they want a strong leader."
Of course these are just polls, and they do show a large number of Israelis
waiting to make up their minds. Still, they seem to continue the pattern of
the last 12 years in Israeli politics: pro-settlement leaders are dominant
in the government. Because Jewish Israeli voters want them to be.
Miriam's comment: This information is opposed to that in the previous
article on this subject that I sent today.
