from Covert magazine
I don't like some of this, but it's informative.
Miriam
Iran in the Crosshairs: Tracing Overt and Covert Action
By Eric Walberg - November 28, 2020
[Source: thepoliticalwarroom.com]
[The assassination of Irans top nuclear scientist and professor Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh has seriously complicated any efforts to normalize relations
with Iran under a new Biden administration. Walberg contrasts the republican
and democratic positions toward Iran while tracing key historical and recent
events all in an effort to provide deeper insight into understanding Iran
and U.S.-led efforts toward destabilization.Editors]
As bad as they are on other foreign policy issues, the Biden-Harris victory
in the November election is still a cause for optimism in U.S.-Iranian
relations, given what we have seen under Trump. At a minimum, it brings (1)
hope that the U.S. will come back into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA) or 2015 Iran nuclear deal, (2) mitigates the danger of war,
and (3) could lead to the reduction or ending of sanctions. However, the
recent assassination of Prof. Fakhrizadeh complicates efforts to normalize
relations.
The grounds for optimism centers on the fact that there are clear
differences between the Republican and Democratic party when it comes to
foreign policy and specifically with respect to Iran.
On Iran, the Republicans in 2020 maintained their position from 2016 that
the JCPOA was nonbinding without endorsement by two-thirds of the Senate.
In their assessment, the JCPOA had emboldened the regime in Tehran to
continue to sponsor terrorism across the region, develop a nuclear weapon,
test-fire ballistic missiles inscribed with Death to Israel and abuse the
basic human rights of its citizens.
The Democratic Party platform, by contrast, states that it will call off
the Trump administrations race to war with Iran, noting that the United
States should not impose regime change on other countries and that the
party reject[s] that as the goal of U.S. policy toward Iran.
The platform calls for returning to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran,
maintaining that it was always meant to be the beginning, not the end, of
our diplomacy with Iran, and that it remains the best means to verifiably
cut off all of Irans pathways to a nuclear bomb.
Thousands protest potential war in Iran in New York City in January 2020.
[Source: leftvoice.org]
In April, Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden called on
President Donald J. Trump to ease economic sanctions on Iran as a
humanitarian gesture during the global coronavirus pandemic, stressing that
the U.S. has a moral obligation to be among the first to offer aid to
people in need regardless of where they live when confronting a virus that
knows no borders or political affiliations.
The above statements offer some hope of a thaw in U.S.-Iranian relations
with Bidens election and a new era of peace. However, one should not get
ones hopes up too high.
Iran, where President Hassan Rouhani faces strong opposition from
conservatives in elections set for June 2021, is expected to demand a high
price to return to the JCPOA, including the immediate lifting of punishing
economic sanctions and billions of dollars in compensation, which the new
Biden administration is unlikely to grant.
In September Biden told CNN that as president, he would make sure U.S.
sanctions do not hinder Irans fight against Covid-19, but that he would
continue to adopt targeted sanctions against Irans human rights abuses,
its support for terrorism and ballistic missile program.
Another precondition for restoring the JCPOA is a temporary freeze on
uranium enrichment and reduction of Irans large stockpile. Iran, however,
would only agree to this if the U.S. and EU would comply with the terms of
the JCPOA and lift the sanctions.
By all indications, Biden remains committing to isolating Iran as part of a
foreign policy strategy which is designed to sustain U.S. hegemony in the
Middle East and access its oil.
The Democratic Party platform does not call for any cutbacks in arms sales
to Saudi Arabia, Irans Sunni adversary, nor to the United Arab Emirates
(UAE) which the Trump administration has sold F-35 jets to. It also
reiterates an ironclad commitment to Israel, another of Irans nemeses.
Defying Congress, Trump sets $8 billion-plus in weapons sales to Saudi
Arabia. The Democratic Party platform does not call for cutbacks in arms
sales to the Saudis. [Source: egyptindependent.com]
While seeking to end the blank check offered by Trump, the Democrats remain
committed to the modernization of the Gulf monarchies (Qatar, Bahrain, UAE),
which are a key part of the U.S. containment strategy directed against Iran.
In addition, the Democratic Party platform does not stray from language that
singles out Iran as a rogue state, and emphasizes its desire to extend
constraints on its nuclear program and other threatening activities,
including its regional aggression, ballistic missile program and domestic
repression.
No parallel program is put forward for Saudi Arabia, whose domestic
repression and support for regional aggression is far greater than Irans.
Though adopting a softer line than the Republicans, the Democratic Party
platform overall does not diverge from the characteristic Western thinking
on Iran, shaped by unremitting media hostility, which considers the country
as a theocracy, whose oppressive character is reflected in its promotion of
the death penalty.
The Iranian government should be criticized, to be sure, for certain things
like its jailing trade union activists and dissenters and allowing the oil
and gas wealth of the country to line the pockets of corrupt clergymen and
their allies, rather than Western corporations like in the days of the Shah
(1953-1979).
The U.S., however, has lavished aid to far worse governmentsincluding the
Saudis, and Egypt under Fatah al-Sisiand the threat that Iran represents
has been consistently overstated.
Since its 1979 Islamic revolution, Iran has not invaded any of its neighbors
and it has repeatedly been falsely accused of supporting terrorist attacks.6
As for the death penalty, it is limited to treason, serious corruption, drug
smuggling and murder and it is affected without the Saudi head-chopping.
Irans government has serious factional divisions. The group led by current
President Hassan Rouhani is far more liberal on many issues and tolerant
than the conservatives led by Mahmoud Ahmadinijad, who include anti-semitic
elements that want to destroy Israel.
Like with Russia, the concerns of gay rights groups has been used to advance
an imperialistic political agenda. Iranians are generally kind and
hospitable to foreigners, as many Western travelers have noted, and the
countrys cultural heritage is magnificent.
One observer told The Independent that the Iranians were quite a
sophisticated and educated people [who] revere their poets
[The population
is] very pro-American. They make a clear distinction between the American
people and the American government. They have a developed political
system
and it makes a difference if the more reformist or conservative
factions win the elections. Saudi Arabia has no democracy, its just a
monarchy where rule is handed down from one king to the next one.8
Moving beyond media stereotypes, we can generally find many positive things
about Iran and its people.
Instead of demonizing the country, trying to cripple its economy and
overthrow its government, we in the U.S. and the West more generally can and
should embrace it as part of the community of nations.
From Wild Card to Acceptance
While it is not socialist, Iran can be considered one of the principle
anti-imperialist nations in the world, along with Cuba, Venezuela, Belarus
and North Korea. Because of its anti-imperialism, the U.S. has reserved the
full force of its wrath for Iran. The U.S. could never accept the Islamic
revolution of 1979, which overthrew the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlevi, whom the
U.S. had installed after overthrowing the democratically elected regime of
Mohammed Mossadegh in 1953.
Scene from the 1979 Iranian revolution. [Source: nytimes.com]
Just as the Soviet Union was blackened, subverted and invaded from 1917 on,
Iran is in the sights of U.S.-Israel continuously. Thus, its suspicions
about Iranian émigrés and westerners in general are not paranoia.
Obamas major foreign policy achievementthe JCPOAgot Iran to agree to
redesign and convert any nuclear weapons-production facilities, allow for
inspections and restrict stockpiles and mining of enriched uranium in return
for the lifting of all nuclear-related sanctions, the release of four
Americans from Iranian jails, and secret cash payments to help resolve
claims over a failed arms deal under the Shah.
Russian leader Vladimir Putin was instrumental in convincing Iran to sign
the deal as a means of averting a world war. Iranian assets totaling $150
billion were released because of the lifting of sanctions.
Obama faced a backlash from the political right and extreme right-wing
elements in the CIA and Israeli intelligence establishment and politics as
well as from members of his own party, like Senator Robert Menendez of New
Jersey (D) who said that the administration sounded like talking points
that come straight out of Tehran.
In an unprecedented step, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was
invited, without consulting with Obama, to address the Republican-controlled
U.S. Congress.
JCPOA signed 2015 From left to right: Foreign ministers/secretaries of state
Wang Yi (China), Laurent Fabius (France), Frank-Walter Steinmeier (Germany),
Federica Mogherini (EU), Mohammad Javad Zarif (Iran), Philip Hammond (UK),
John Kerry (U.S.). [Source: blogs.lse.ac.uk]
As Gareth Porter convincingly argued in Manufactured Crisis: The Untold
Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare (2014),
with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ending of the Cold War, the
whole campaign against Irans nuclear program was merely the pretext to keep
the CIA at the center of U.S. foreign policya new threat that conveniently
conflated both Iraq and Iran with terror and of weapons of mass
destruction.
From 1979 on, the Iranian leadership has repeatedly said it was not
interested in a nuclear weapons program, and there is no evidence to the
contrary.
[Source: justworldbooks.com]
Prior to the signing of the Iran nuclear deal, Obama had approved a
cyberattack on Irans nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz in collaboration
with Israeli intelligence. Obamas political career was sponsored from the
beginning by Lester Crown, former chairman of the arms manufacturer General
Dynamics, who pushed a hawkish line on Iran. In line with his wishes, the
Obama administration had further encircled Iran with Raytheon Patriot and
Lockheed Martin Aegis missiles equipped with advanced radars placed in
Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE.
The Obama administration further waged economic war by pushing Saudi Arabia
to raise its oil production to drive prices down (Russia was also a target)
and strengthened Bush-era economic sanctions which resulted in a precipitous
decline of the rial.
In 2012, Hillary Clintons State Department removed the Mujahadin e-Khalq
(MEK) from its list of terrorist groups, which left the cult-like dissident
organizationits members displayed fealty to the group by divorcing their
spousesfree to raise funds and plot sabotage operations against the Iranian
government.
MEK had started as a key underground movement under the Shah but then fell
out with the Ayatollah Khomeini after the Iranian revolution, and began a
campaign of assassinating Iranian leaders in the early 1980s while allying
with Saddam Hussein and Iraq.
After taking them off the list of terrorist groups, the Obama administration
donated $20 million to the UNHCR refugee agency to help MEK resettle to a
massive military-style secret base in Manez, Albania, where locals staged
protests, but to no avail.
Obamas policy toward Iran was, thus, on the whole very hostile to the
Iranian regime. In his speech announcing the Iran nuclear deal, he blamed
them for destabilizing behavior across the Middle East and support for
violent proxies in Syria and Yemen.
The latter charges were heavily politicized as it was the U.S. proxy Saudi
Arabia which had criminally invaded Yemen, and the U.S. itself which had
destabilized Syria by backing the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and jihadist
elements in a huge covert operation designed to topple the regime of Bashir
al-Assad.
The U.S. had also tried to destabilize Iran through its covert support for
MEK and sanctions, and covert strategy of trying to encourage ethnic groups
to become secessionists and rise up against the government.
U.S. Embassy with murals added by occupiers 1980. [Source: dailymail.co.uk]
For all the contradictions and problems with Obamas approach to Iran, the
signing of the JCPOA brought some hope that Iran was being welcomed back
into the Western fold. Its theocracy, when viewed up close, no longer seemed
so bad, as memories of the 1979-81 hostage crisis (where no one died except
U.S. military personnel in a failed rescue mission) were put on the back
burner.
After the nightmares of the U.S. New World Order since 1991the dismantling
of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, the invasion of Afghanistan and
Iraq, the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war (with the U.S. arming both sides, the better
for them to destroy each other)it looked for a moment as if the U.S. might
be humiliated enough, and hurting enough, to push it a bit in the right
direction, toward peace instead of war. It looked like a bit of the peace
dividend promised in 1991 and immediately betrayed. (Remember the halcyon
days of détente after the Vietnam humiliation?)
But then came Trump.
Trump and the Dogs of War
In September 2018, the Trump White House asked the Pentagon to draw up
options for military strikes against Iran in the wake of two incidents in
Iraq when mortar shells and rockets fired by militias exploded near U.S.
diplomatic facilities.
Contingency planning for potential conflicts is routine but, according to
the Wall Street Journal, the seriousness of the request from the National
Security Council unnerved defense and state officials.
It definitely rattled people, a former senior U.S. administration official
was quoted as saying. People were shocked. It was mind-boggling how
cavalier they were about hitting Iran.
Trump combined his military threats have continued with a series of
inflammatory tweets and threats to destroy Irans major cultural sites.
Trump tweet threatening Iran. [Source: twitter.com]
The Trump administration stepped up regime-change efforts further by
expanding ties to MEK as part of his coalition of Iranian dissidents intent
on overthrowing the government.
In 2017, the year before John Bolton became President Trumps National
Security Adviser, he addressed members of the MEK and said that they would
celebrate in Tehran before 2019.
John Bolton long supported MEK and its effort to overthrow the Iranian
government. [Source: observer.com]
Trump had campaigned in 2016 on a platform of overthrowing the Iranian
government and, immediately after his inauguration, he began taking steps to
scuttle the JCPOA, pulling out completely by 2018 and initiating a
U.S.-enforced embargo on all trade with Iran. This has become Trumps
signature foreign policy, with both Iran and Venezuela his bètes noires.
Regime change in Iran had been a key goal of the neoconservatives associated
with the Project for a New American Century, who wanted to use the 9/11
attacks to expand U.S. hegemony in the Middle East.
Some of Trumps top political donorsSheldon Adelson, Bernard Marcus and
Paul Singerwere tied to the Israeli hard-right, which considers Iran an
apocalyptic threat. Adelson is so extreme that he once proposed launching a
nuclear weapon into the Iranian desertas a negotiating tactic!
[Source: twitter.com]
Britains own Trump, Boris Johnson, bumbled into the fray when Britains
colonial outpost Gibraltar seized an Iranian oil tanker accused of violating
EU sanctions in 2019. Iran stared Boris down, seizing a British oil tanker
in retaliation, then suggesting a swap. Never, joked Boris,
and then
swapped. Iran humiliated its nemesis Britain, whose meddling in Iran dates
back to the 19th century.
The seizures continued, with four tankers of Iranian oil headed to Venezuela
seized by the U.S. in August 2020, even as the UN Security Council voted to
abide by the JCPOA and allowed Iran to buy arms through October.
This is outright piracy and is implicitly accepted by the West, watching
this as if it is some kind of reality TV show. Trump promised to enforce the
snap-back clause in the agreement itself and prevent Iran physically from
buying necessary arms to defend itself. Trumps gunfight at the OK Corral
continued as the countdown to November approached.
This photo shows the Iranian-flagged oil tanker Fortune docked at the El
Palito refinery after its arrival to Puerto Cabello, in the northern state
of Carabobo, Venezuela, May 25, 2020. [Source: trtworld.com]
The assassination of General Soleimani in January 2020 was Trumps signal
achievement in his scheme to overthrow the Iranian government. According to
political analyst Michael Hudson, the assassination of Soleimani was
intended to escalate Americas presence in Iraq to keep control of the
regions oil reserves, and to back Saudi Arabias Wahabi troops (ISIS, Al
Qaeda in Iraq, Al Nusra and other divisions of what are actually Americas
foreign legion) to support U.S. control of Near Eastern oil as a buttress of
the U.S. dollar.
Though condemned even by liberal figures like Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) as a
bad man and terrorist who allegedly helped plant roadside bombs
targeting U.S. troops in Iraq, Soleimanis real crime was to fight against
ISIS and other U.S.-backed terrorists in their attempt to break up Syria and
replace Assads regime with a set of U.S.-compliant local leadersand to
support the Iraqi governments efforts to reclaim its oil fields which Trump
had bragged about grabbing.
The illegal, shoot-em-up action was universally condemned, but had no
consequences for the U.S. other than a targeted bombing of the U.S. Al-Asad
air base as a show of Iranian defiance, killing no one.
It is only a matter of time before Hollywood cashes in, feeding U.S. war
lust, Argo part II. Irans status keeps growing through all this, as Iran is
in the same boat, and for the same reasons, as other defiant regimesCuba,
Venezuela, Belarus, Bolivia, Russia and China among others.
Iranians mourn the death of revolutionary guard commander, Omar Suleimani.
[Source: vox.com]
Economic War Through Sanctions
The sanctionswhich Irans President Hassan Rohani characterized as an
economic warhave been devastating for Iran, with even most coronavirus
medical aid forbidden. Irans GDP contracted 5% in 2018 and shrunk another
9.5% in 2019, according to the IMF. The cost of products like paper tripled,
forcing many businesses to close. The price of beef and veal has also risen
nearly 50 percent, and the cost of milk has almost doubled. While inflation
has increased by 40 percent, Iranians have been deprived of medicines and
medical equipment.
The purpose behind the sanctions was explained by Secretary of State Mike
Pompeo, who told CBS News on February 14, 2019, that things are much worse
for the Iranian people [with the U.S. sanctions], and we are convinced that
will lead the Iranian people to rise up and change the behavior of the
regime.
The Trump administrations threat to impose sanctions on countries that
purchased Iranian oil hit Iran especially hard. President Rohani claimed on
December 31, 2019, that the renewed sanctions cost Iran $100 billion in oil
income and another $100 billion in foreign investment credit.23
Mehdi Tajabian, a 30-year-old Iranian musician and protest artist, told The
Washington Post that every single day, as soon as people open their eyes,
they face a dark and vague future.
This is designed by Washington as punishment for Irans successful defiance
of the U.S.-led world order, and overthrow of the Shah who had terrorized
Iranians for 25 years after the U.S. and UK overthrew democracy in 1953.
Iran is blessed with just about all climate variations, so no one starves.
The theocratic flavor to Iranian politics means there is a sense of
responsibility to Allah in government actions. Those are the aces up Irans
sleeve, making it virtually impossible to starve Iran into submission.
U.S.-led policies and the rise a fall of the Iranian GDP. [Source:
thearabweekly.com]
Fateful Triangle: The U.S., Iran and Israel
But we must not forget Israel. Israels Settlements Minister Tzachi Hanegbi
warned on Wednesday, November 4th, that Bidens position on the Iran nuclear
deal could lead to war between Israel and Iran. Knesset Foreign Affairs and
Defense Committee chairman Zvi Hauser took a more optimistic approach. I
assume that even if the Iran Deal is renewed
it will be better than the
previous one, he told Army Radio.
Really, it is U.S.-Israel, as they are inseparable. Israel depends entirely
on massive U.S. funding and its illegal settlements are full of U.S.
immigrants. If the U.S. sneezes, Israel feels it and shudders. Trump
promised to move the capital to Jerusalem and he did. So that, and UAE and
Bahrain establishing diplomatic ties with Israel, can be added to
assassination as his other achievements in foreign policy.
As a thank-you, Israel has been up to its cyber and sabotage tricks in Iran.
A decade ago, joint U.S.-Israeli efforts resulted in the development of the
Stuxnet computer worm, which infected key nuclear facilities at Natanz and
Parchin, and metastasized around the world. In June 2020, a series of
explosions in Natanz, missile sites, petrochemical centers, power plants and
medical clinics, showed U.S.-Israel was actively at work inside Iran, no
doubt with MEK help.
Both Netanyahu and Trump loudly call for a full-scale attack, doing their
best to provoke Iran into providing a Gulf of Tonkin newsbyte to set off
the fireworks. Irans calm, measured actions internationally belie the
efficacy of this old ploy. The seizure of four tankers by the U.S. in early
August was surely part of a pre-election October surprise strategy,
intended to push U.S.-Israel into all-out war, a perfect storm for both
Trump and Netanyahu, faced with fractured societies and electoral defeat and
jail terms, which only war can salvage.
Biden-Harris: Back to the Future?
Four more years of Trump would have been a disaster with a huge likelihood
of war by U.S.-Israel. With Biden it is more likely a war by Israel.
Biden will have to step right up to the plate before Israel pulls another
Iraq-style lightning bombing raid on its nuclear energy facilities and
defense installations.
Of course, Israels needs must be considered, and the prospect of any
alteration of the U.S.-Israeli alliance under Biden-Harris is very slight.
Biden himself famously quipped, You dont have to be Jewish to be a
Zionist. On the other hand, Biden has in the past shown a willingness to
compromise and has made it clear annexation of the West Bank would not get a
green light or recognition from his administration. But Biden has stated
he would leave the embassy in Jerusalem.
Biden has always been a strong supporter of Israel. [Source: time.com]
Harris says Israel is a beautiful home to democracy and justice, and does
not advocate putting conditions on aid to Israel. In short, she has not made
any statement that would leave her open to attack from Zionists, and will
abide by whatever AIPAC and Biden call for.
Nevertheless, the worst-case scenario under Trump will be averted. Oil
companies need not worry. They were against invading Iraq and just as
against invading Iran. Make peace, they plead, so we can invade Iran
(economically). Despite official hostility to all things U.S., Iranians
(like Soviet-era citizens) love all things U.S. except invasion. Even my
staunch anti-Mullah friend Ali in Tehran would fight Americans invading.
As for funding by MEK and other anti-Iran lobbyists, there is MEKs U.S.
front group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). President
Trumps Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett briefly advised the NCRI as a
client while working at a Washington law firm when the NCRI challenged its
State Department designation as a foreign terrorist organization. Her work
did not come up in her confirmation hearing.
Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and former Trump National Security
Adviser John Bolton have both been outspoken proponents of the group, as
have Democrats like former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and former
Vermont Governor Howard Dean.
But it is the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), the largest
organization representing people of Iranian heritage in the U.S., founded in
2002 to promote Iranian-American civic participation, that helped shape the
JCPOA during Obamas presidency. Its guiding force is Trita Parsi, and The
Hill cited Parsi and NIACs work in support of the Iran nuclear accord as
one of the Top lobbying victories of 2015.
In January 2020, three Republican senators, Mike Braun (UT), Ted Cruz (TX)
and Tom Cotton (AK), requested that U.S. Attorney-General William Barr
evaluate whether an investigation of NIAC is warranted for potential
Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) violations and to ensure transparency
regarding foreign attempts to influence the U.S. political process.
In response to the letter, dozens of academics, policy professionals,
activists, former senior U.S. officials and non-governmental organizations
signed a statement denouncing the Senators letter and expressing solidarity
with and support for NIAC. It will be key to helping Biden get the U.S. back
on track.
No doubt MEK and Israel will still try to blow up and assassinate, as we
have seen with the assassination of Prof. Fakhrizadeh. But the nightmare of
Trumpism is over. And then there are the handful of lefties in Congress
demanding Israel shape up or face the consequences. The days of Trumps
Israel-Iran policies appear to be numbered, and hopefully will never come
back.
Eric Walberg is a journalist specializing in the Middle East and Russia and
author of numerous books including Islamic Resistance to Imperialism (2015,
Clarity Press) and Postmodern Imperialism: Geopolitics and Great Games
(2011, Clarity Press).
