But the thing is, Michael Moore had it analyzed absolutely right! He hit the
nail on the head in July and all those stupid Democratic politicians didn't pay
a bit of attention! I would not have liked what Hillary would have done, but at
least we'd have had a functioning government and the extreme racists,
Islamaphobes, and anti-Semites, would have stayed under their rocks.
Miriam
-----Original Message-----
From: blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
[mailto:blind-democracy-bounce@xxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Carl Jarvis
Sent: Tuesday, July 25, 2017 6:57 PM
To: blind-democracy@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [blind-democracy] Re: I Warned You Trump Would Win
Well, I was one of those who said, "Not to worry, Donald Trump is making such a
buffoon out of himself that only a few fools will vote for him." Okay, so I
was off by a few million fools.
Carl Jarvis
On 7/25/17, Miriam Vieni <miriamvieni@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
He, I read it again this year and honestly, it just made me cry!
Miriam
Filmmaker Michael Moore. (photo: Sara Krulwich/NYT)
I Warned You Trump Would Win
By Michael Moore, Michael Moore's Facebook Page
24 July 17
One year ago today I wrote this open letter trying to warn my fellow
Americans that Trump was going to win the election that was less than
four months away -- and that he would do it by winning Michigan,
Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Needless to say, I didn't do a very
good job convincing those who were sure Hillary would win and that we
had nothing to worry about with Trump the Idiot on the ballot.
Friends:
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but I gave it to you straight
last summer when I told you that Donald Trump would be the Republican
nominee for president. And now I have even more awful, depressing news
for you: Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched,
ignorant, dangerous part-time clown and full time sociopath is going
to be our next president.
President Trump. Go ahead and say the words, ‘cause you’ll be saying
them for the next four years: “PRESIDENT TRUMP.”
Never in my life have I wanted to be proven wrong more than I do right now.
I can see what you’re doing right now. You’re shaking your head wildly
– “No, Mike, this won’t happen!” Unfortunately, you are living in a
bubble that comes with an adjoining echo chamber where you and your
friends are convinced the American people are not going to elect an
idiot for president.
You alternate between being appalled at him and laughing at him
because of his latest crazy comment or his embarrassingly narcissistic
stance on everything because everything is about him. And then you
listen to Hillary and you behold our very first female president,
someone the world respects, someone who is whip-smart and cares about
kids, who will continue the Obama legacy because that is what the
American people clearly want! Yes! Four more years of this!
You need to exit that bubble right now. You need to stop living in
denial and face the truth which you know deep down is very, very real.
Trying to soothe yourself with the facts – “77% of the electorate are
women, people of color, young adults under 35 and Trump cant win a
majority of any of them!”
– or logic – “people aren’t going to vote for a buffoon or against
their own best interests!” – is your brain’s way of trying to protect
you from trauma.
Like when you hear a loud noise on the street and you think, “oh, a
tire just blew out,” or, “wow, who’s playing with firecrackers?”
because you don’t want to think you just heard someone being shot with
a gun. It’s the same reason why all the initial news and eyewitness
reports on 9/11 said “a small plane accidentally flew into the World
Trade Center.” We want to – we need to – hope for the best because,
frankly, life is already a shit show and it’s hard enough struggling
to get by from paycheck to paycheck. We can’t handle much more bad
news. So our mental state goes to default when something scary is
actually, truly happening. The first people plowed down by the truck
in Nice spent their final moments on earth waving at the driver whom
they thought had simply lost control of his truck, trying to tell him
that he jumped the curb: “Watch out!,” they shouted. “There are people
on the sidewalk!”
Well, folks, this isn’t an accident. It is happening. And if you
believe Hillary Clinton is going to beat Trump with facts and smarts
and logic, then you obviously missed the past year of 56 primaries and
caucuses where 16 Republican candidates tried that and every kitchen
sink they could throw at Trump and nothing could stop his juggernaut.
As of today, as things stand now, I believe this is going to happen –
and in order to deal with it, I need you first to acknowledge it, and
then maybe, just maybe, we can find a way out of the mess we’re in.
Don’t get me wrong. I have great hope for the country I live in.
Things are better. The left has won the cultural wars. Gays and
lesbians can get married. A majority of Americans now take the liberal
position on just about every polling question posed to them: Equal pay
for women – check. Abortion should be legal – check. Stronger
environmental laws – check. More gun control – check. Legalize
marijuana – check. A huge shift has taken place – just ask the
socialist who won 22 states this year. And there is no doubt in my
mind that if people could vote from their couch at home on their X-box
or PlayStation, Hillary would win in a landslide.
But that is not how it works in America. People have to leave the
house and get in line to vote. And if they live in poor, Black or
Hispanic neighborhoods, they not only have a longer line to wait in,
everything is being done to literally stop them from casting a ballot.
So in most elections it’s hard to get even 50% to turn out to vote.
And therein lies the problem for November – who is going to have the
most motivated, most inspired voters show up to vote? You know the answer to
this question.
Who’s
the candidate with the most rabid supporters? Whose crazed fans are
going to be up at 5 AM on Election Day, kicking ass all day long, all
the way until the last polling place has closed, making sure every
Tom, Dick and Harry (and Bob and Joe and Billy Bob and Billy Joe and
Billy Bob Joe) has cast his ballot? That’s right. That’s the high
level of danger we’re in. And don’t fool yourself — no amount of
compelling Hillary TV ads, or outfacting him in the debates or
Libertarians siphoning votes away from Trump is going to stop his
mojo.
Here are the 5 reasons Trump is going to win:
1.Midwest Math, or Welcome to Our Rust Belt Brexit. I believe Trump
is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the
rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and
Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them
have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has
now finally elected a Democrat).
In the Michigan primary in March, more Michiganders came out to vote
for the Republicans (1.32 million) that the Democrats (1.19 million).
Trump is ahead of Hillary in the latest polls in Pennsylvania and tied
with her in Ohio.
Tied? How can the race be this close after everything Trump has said
and done? Well maybe it’s because he’s said (correctly) that the Clintons’
support of NAFTA helped to destroy the industrial states of the Upper
Midwest. Trump is going to hammer Clinton on this and her support of
TPP and other trade policies that have royally screwed the people of
these four states. When Trump stood in the shadow of a Ford Motor
factory during the Michigan primary, he threatened the corporation
that if they did indeed go ahead with their planned closure of that
factory and move it to Mexico, he would slap a 35% tariff on any
Mexican-built cars shipped back to the United States. It was sweet,
sweet music to the ears of the working class of Michigan, and when he
tossed in his threat to Apple that he would force them to stop making
their iPhones in China and build them here in America, well, hearts
swooned and Trump walked away with a big victory that should have gone
to the governor next-door, John Kasich.
From Green Bay to Pittsburgh, this, my friends, is the middle of
England – broken, depressed, struggling, the smokestacks strewn across
the countryside with the carcass of what we use to call the Middle
Class. Angry, embittered working (and nonworking) people who were lied
to by the trickle-down of Reagan and abandoned by Democrats who still
try to talk a good line but are really just looking forward to rub one
out with a lobbyist from Goldman Sachs who’ll write them nice big
check before leaving the room. What happened in the UK with Brexit is
going to happen here. Elmer Gantry shows up looking like Boris Johnson
and just says whatever shit he can make up to convince the masses that
this is their chance! To stick to ALL of them, all who wrecked their
American Dream! And now The Outsider, Donald Trump, has arrived to
clean house! You don’t have to agree with him! You don’t even have to
like him! He is your personal Molotov cocktail to throw right into the
center of the bastards who did this to you! SEND A MESSAGE! TRUMP IS
YOUR MESSENGER!
And this is where the math comes in. In 2012, Mitt Romney lost by 64
electoral votes. Add up the electoral votes cast by Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It’s 64. All Trump needs to do to win is
to carry, as he’s expected to do, the swath of traditional red states
from Idaho to Georgia (states that’ll never vote for Hillary Clinton),
and then he just needs these four rust belt states. He doesn’t need
Florida. He doesn’t need Colorado or Virginia. Just Michigan, Ohio,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And that will put him over the top. This
is how it will happen in November.
2.The Last Stand of the Angry White Man. Our male-dominated, 240-year
run of the USA is coming to an end. A woman is about to take over! How
did this happen?! On our watch! There were warning signs, but we
ignored them.
Nixon,
the gender traitor, imposing Title IX on us, the rule that said girls
in school should get an equal chance at playing sports. Then they let
them fly commercial jets. Before we knew it, Beyoncé stormed on the
field at this year’s Super Bowl (our game!) with an army of Black
Women, fists raised, declaring that our domination was hereby terminated! Oh,
the humanity!
That’s a small peek into the mind of the Endangered White Male. There
is a sense that the power has slipped out of their hands, that their
way of doing things is no longer how things are done. This monster,
the “Feminazi,”the thing that as Trump says, “bleeds through her eyes
or wherever she bleeds,”
has conquered us — and now, after having had to endure eight years of
a black man telling us what to do, we’re supposed to just sit back and
take eight years of a woman bossing us around? After that it’ll be
eight years of the gays in the White House! Then the transgenders! You
can see where this is going. By then animals will have been granted
human rights and a fuckin’
hamster is going to be running the country. This has to stop!
3.The Hillary Problem. Can we speak honestly, just among ourselves?
And before we do, let me state, I actually like Hillary – a lot – and
I think she has been given a bad rap she doesn’t deserve. But her vote
for the Iraq War made me promise her that I would never vote for her
again. To date, I haven’t broken that promise. For the sake of
preventing a proto-fascist from becoming our commander-in-chief, I’m
breaking that promise. I sadly believe Clinton will find a way to get
us in some kind of military action. She’s a hawk, to the right of
Obama. But Trump’s psycho finger will be on The Button, and that is
that. Done and done.
Let’s face it: Our biggest problem here isn’t Trump – it’s Hillary.
She is hugely unpopular — nearly 70% of all voters think she is
untrustworthy and dishonest. She represents the old way of politics,
not really believing in anything other than what can get you elected.
That’s why she fights against gays getting married one moment, and the
next she’s officiating a gay marriage. Young women are among her
biggest detractors, which has to hurt considering it’s the sacrifices
and the battles that Hillary and other women of her generation endured
so that this younger generation would never have to be told by the
Barbara Bushes of the world that they should just shut up and go bake
some cookies. But the kids don’t like her, and not a day goes by that
a millennial doesn’t tell me they aren’t voting for her. No Democrat,
and certainly no independent, is waking up on November 8th excited to
run out and vote for Hillary the way they did the day Obama became
president or when Bernie was on the primary ballot. The enthusiasm
just isn’t there. And because this election is going to come down to
just one thing — who drags the most people out of the house and gets
them to the polls — Trump right now is in the catbird seat.
4.The Depressed Sanders Vote. Stop fretting about Bernie’s supporters
not voting for Clinton – we’re voting for Clinton! The polls already
show that more Sanders voters will vote for Hillary this year than the
number of Hillary primary voters in ’08 who then voted for Obama. This
is not the problem. The fire alarm that should be going off is that
while the average Bernie backer will drag him/herself to the polls
that day to somewhat reluctantly vote for Hillary, it will be what’s
called a “depressed vote” – meaning the voter doesn’t bring five
people to vote with her. He doesn’t volunteer 10 hours in the month
leading up to the election. She never talks in an excited voice when
asked why she’s voting for Hillary. A depressed voter. Because, when
you’re young, you have zero tolerance for phonies and BS. Returning to
the Clinton/Bush era for them is like suddenly having to pay for
music, or using MySpace or carrying around one of those big-ass
portable phones. They’re not going to vote for Trump; some will vote
third party, but many will just stay home. Hillary Clinton is going to
have to do something to give them a reason to support her — and
picking a moderate, bland-o, middle of the road old white guy as her
running mate is not the kind of edgy move that tells millenials that
their vote is important to Hillary. Having two women on the ticket –
that was an exciting idea. But then Hillary got scared and has decided to
play it safe. This is just one example of how she is killing the youth vote.
5.The Jesse Ventura Effect. Finally, do not discount the electorate’s
ability to be mischievous or underestimate how any millions fancy
themselves as closet anarchists once they draw the curtain and are all
alone in the voting booth. It’s one of the few places left in society
where there are no security cameras, no listening devices, no spouses,
no kids, no boss, no cops, there’s not even a friggin’ time limit. You
can take as long as you need in there and no one can make you do
anything. You can push the button and vote a straight party line, or
you can write in Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck. There are no rules. And
because of that, and the anger that so many have toward a broken
political system, millions are going to vote for Trump not because
they agree with him, not because they like his bigotry or ego, but
just because they can. Just because it will upset the apple cart and
make mommy and daddy mad. And in the same way like when you’re
standing on the edge of Niagara Falls and your mind wonders for a
moment what would that feel like to go over that thing, a lot of
people are going to love being in the position of puppetmaster and
plunking down for Trump just to see what that might look like.
Remember back in the ‘90s when the people of Minnesota elected a
professional wrestler as their governor? They didn’t do this because
they’re stupid or thought that Jesse Ventura was some sort of
statesman or political intellectual. They did so just because they could.
Minnesota is one of the smartest states in the country. It is also
filled with people who have a dark sense of humor — and voting for
Ventura was their version of a good practical joke on a sick political
system. This is going to happen again with Trump.
Coming back to the hotel after appearing on Bill Maher’s Republican
Convention special this week on HBO, a man stopped me. “Mike,” he
said, “we have to vote for Trump. We HAVE to shake things up.” That
was it. That was enough for him. To “shake things up.” President Trump
would indeed do just that, and a good chunk of the electorate would
like to sit in the bleachers and watch that reality show.
(Next week I will post my thoughts on Trump’s Achilles Heel and how I
think he can be beat.)
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